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Old 11-07-2016, 07:09 PM
 
Location: In a city within a state where politicians come to get their PHDs in Corruption
2,907 posts, read 2,069,146 times
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And I stayed at Holiday Inn Express last night.
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Old 11-07-2016, 07:12 PM
 
Location: Foot of the Rockies
90,297 posts, read 120,759,995 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kell490 View Post
Uses's computer modeling running the model on earlier campaigns comes up with the correct outcome for every race since 1912, except the 1960 election


SUNY professor says Trump win at least 87 percent certain; other polls 'bunk' | syracuse.com


It's still too close to call Trump could win.
LOL! Yes, that's like, "My average is 98% if you don't count that test I flunked".
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Old 11-07-2016, 07:23 PM
 
Location: Cheektowaga, NY
2,008 posts, read 1,248,178 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Katarina Witt View Post
LOL! Yes, that's like, "My average is 98% if you don't count that test I flunked".
Not really, but okay.
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Old 11-07-2016, 07:25 PM
 
Location: Foot of the Rockies
90,297 posts, read 120,759,995 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RiotAct41 View Post
Not really, but okay.
Well, if you eliminate the election that skews your bias, what do you call it?
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Old 11-07-2016, 07:26 PM
 
Location: San Antonio
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Hence the reason so many people believe the most flawed, corrupt and dishonest candidate in our history will win easily.

Really? You think Trump will win? LOL!
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Old 11-07-2016, 07:40 PM
 
11,755 posts, read 7,117,231 times
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Well, the prof has 50% of getting it right. . . . . . like a coin flip.

Mick
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Old 11-07-2016, 07:50 PM
 
Location: Durham, NC
1,615 posts, read 1,967,748 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vector1 View Post
I don't believe any of the polls, and most are nothing more than a way to get the sheeple to believe what the puppet masters wants them to.
Hence the reason so many people believe the most flawed, corrupt and dishonest candidate in our history will win easily.
Might it have to do with multiple polls saying Hillary is guaranteed to win by 12 or even 15 points at various times?

You bet it is, and even the talking heads go by such things. Yet as we have seen in other examples like Reagan vs. Carter, the polls can be wrong just a couple of days before the election. Heck the Brexit polls and even the bookies had it wrong the night before the election just a few short months ago.

So we shall see if a couple of these algorithms or predictors are right about Trump winning in about 24 hours from now.
Reagan gained a convincing lead in polls after the debate against Carter. So no, that's not an example. Brexit was too close to call in polls, with 10% undecided. That was a failure of punditry, not polls.

Fact of the matter is polls are pretty good. They've accurately called close elections for quite some time.

Nobody has ever amassed the polling lead Clinton gained after the debates and the conventions and gone on to lose. Nobody has ever led in the vast majority of polls for the entire cycle and then lost. If Trump wins it will be truly unprecedented in American history. Not that new things cannot happen. Maybe this will be the year something new happens. I don't claim to know!
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