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If Trump's poll numbers are below 30% approval, I would expect he would have chllegers. I would also expect Trump to pull an LBJ and withdraw if his primary numbers are low.
What poll numbers? Are you taking about the corrupt pollsters who said that he didn't even have a chance to be nominated? Nate Silver said 2% for example.
Why would anyone with any sense at all pay mind to them?
There just one problem, Republicans are happy with Trump.
Yes, some Rs ARE thrilled with Trump personally.
But I suspect that most Rs just want an R president, and while they might prefer one R over another, when push comes to shove, they wouldn't care all that much whether that R president is Trump or Flake or someone who is just on the cusp of national attention.
Which is just another way of saying that if Trump's general popularity numbers remain stuck at 30-35%, you can bet that he will have serious R challengers.
It's just too early. Despite the complaints of MSM and the never Trumpers, Donald Trump had a pretty good 2017.
I love the Twitter complaints from left and right...all that tells me is Trump has found a highly successful way to bypass the MSM and communicate directly to the American public.
Jeff Flake doesn't have a chance against Trump, mostly because he's the Republican that Democrats love because he criticizes Trump. But pay attention now libs, Democrats will never vote for him. So why should Republicans vote for this whiny loser?
Ben Sasse has the same problem. From The Hill - In a July profile on Slate, Sasse was described as standing out both because of his willingness to criticize Trump...." See? Slate. You folks really think the GOP base gives a f*** what Slate thinks?
Susana Martinez maybe. But I doubt she'll go up against the incumbent.
Sorry Ohioans, there is something distasteful about John Kasich. It's hard to take him seriously. You may not like Trump, but if you go back and look at old YouTube videos of him or read any of his books it's easy to see he had a well developed political philosophy before he ran for the presidency. Kasich just smacks of opportunism.
I like Ted Cruz. I've liked him for a long time. But America doesn't and I don't see them changing their opinion about him...ever. I wouldn't mind seeing him try to primary Trump just to give Trump a run for his money...but I don't see it happening.
It's the wrong question. The real question is, who will the Republicans nominate in 2020 when Trump announces he won't run? Pence? Haley?
2018 will be devastating to Trump as the Mueller investigation unfolds. It's the money trail (money laundering, tax evasion) that threatens him most and he will do anything to protect his assets. As the pressure builds, and family members like Kushner and Don Jr. are indicted, Trump will either make a big mistake that dooms him (like fire Mueller) or he will negotiate a face-saving exit. I would not be surprised if Trump and DOJ/FBI negotiate an informal behind closed door deal where Trump and family avoid charges in exchange for his resignation. Remember, the mainstream Republicans want Trump out as badly as the Democrats do.
Trump already beat Cruz and Kasich in the 2016 primaries. And he did so handily in Kasich's case.
Flake polls worse than Trump right now, and he polls unfavorably in his own state. When th rubber meets the road, Trump would crush him in a primary.
Sasse votes along with Trump almost every single time, and saves his tough guy routine for Twitter an speeches, never direct action. Anyone who is all talk and no balls loses to Trump in a primary.
Martinez checks off affirmative action quota boxes aplenty, but she is hardline RINO establishment that would not poll well nationally. If the Republicans wanted to play the woman card, they are much farther ahead to use Mary Fallin in OK, who could actually do well in TX and across the Southeast.
But anyone trying t primary Trump out of the game will do poorly because hate him or love him, he is the President, and anyone challenging him on what they claim they can do runs up against what he has actually done. Sure, he's boorish and vulgar on Twitter, but starting in February, 85% of the country is going to have bigger paychecks in reality versus the distant theory of deficits, he's gotten grudging props from LaTimes, NYT, etc on the ISIS thing, and he's finally taking a stance with the UN that a majority of Americans appreciate, since even the most liberal among us gets tired of being scolded by the rest of the world because of one thing or another.
Additionally, arguably the fave Republican since Abraham Lincoln tried to unseat an incumbent in a primary and lost. Reagan tried to dump Ford in 1976...and he lost. Reagan was already wildly popular and Ford was equally unpopular (he pardoned Nixon only ~18 months before that primary was in swing), and Reagan still lost.
Also, Trump has the President's bully pulpit, but also gobs ad gobs of his own money. To mount a challenge to him in the media that stays on par with his ability to tap into the culture (and he is gifted at this), a challenger needs somewhere in the range of $2-4 billion just for the primary.
The Democrats may very well defeat him in 2020, but his own party will not. No freaking way. They don't have a Trump slayer out there, and if they did, that person would have already slain him.
More wishful thinking that will amount to nothing.
i pretty much agree with this assessment. about the only person listed in the article that might beat trump in a 2020 primary fight would be ted cruz, he came close in 2016, just not close enough.
susan martinez doesnt have enough name recognition outside new mexico to have an impact, kaisich was soundly defeated in the 2016 primary, and the rest wont run in 2020.
there is one person that might beat trump in a 2020 primary fight, beyond ted cruz, and that is nikki haley. she has the name recognition, and she has the necessary toughness to handle a primary fight, the question is will she run in 2020, or wait until 2024?
And there you have it. Anyone who disagrees with trump or has an ACU rating less than 95% is a Democrat.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Volobjectitarian
Trump already beat Cruz and Kasich in the 2016 primaries. And he did so handily in Kasich's case.
Flake polls worse than Trump right now, and he polls unfavorably in his own state. When th rubber meets the road, Trump would crush him in a primary.
Sasse votes along with Trump almost every single time, and saves his tough guy routine for Twitter an speeches, never direct action. Anyone who is all talk and no balls loses to Trump in a primary.
Martinez checks off affirmative action quota boxes aplenty, but she is hardline RINO establishment that would not poll well nationally. If the Republicans wanted to play the woman card, they are much farther ahead to use Mary Fallin in OK, who could actually do well in TX and across the Southeast.
But anyone trying t primary Trump out of the game will do poorly because hate him or love him, he is the President, and anyone challenging him on what they claim they can do runs up against what he has actually done. Sure, he's boorish and vulgar on Twitter, but starting in February, 85% of the country is going to have bigger paychecks in reality versus the distant theory of deficits, he's gotten grudging props from LaTimes, NYT, etc on the ISIS thing, and he's finally taking a stance with the UN that a majority of Americans appreciate, since even the most liberal among us gets tired of being scolded by the rest of the world because of one thing or another.
Additionally, arguably the fave Republican since Abraham Lincoln tried to unseat an incumbent in a primary and lost. Reagan tried to dump Ford in 1976...and he lost. Reagan was already wildly popular and Ford was equally unpopular (he pardoned Nixon only ~18 months before that primary was in swing), and Reagan still lost.
Also, Trump has the President's bully pulpit, but also gobs ad gobs of his own money. To mount a challenge to him in the media that stays on par with his ability to tap into the culture (and he is gifted at this), a challenger needs somewhere in the range of $2-4 billion just for the primary.
The Democrats may very well defeat him in 2020, but his own party will not. No freaking way. They don't have a Trump slayer out there, and if they did, that person would have already slain him.
More wishful thinking that will amount to nothing.
This^^^
Both parties should be abolished. One is a bunch of social Darwinists. The other is a bunch of SJW loons. I loathe them both. I know it wont happen.
I like Ted Cruz. I've liked him for a long time. But America doesn't and I don't see them changing their opinion about him...ever. I wouldn't mind seeing him try to primary Trump just to give Trump a run for his money...but I don't see it happening.
I agree. Cruz is like Trey Gowdy and can do more in the Senate right now. Cruz might have a chance in 2024 if he is patient.
I would love to see Corker primary Trump. I could vote for that guy.
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