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What I always have found surprising is that people assume new immigrants that become citizens (thereby having the right to vote) would automatically be Democrats. Perhaps my experience with immigrants is unique, but the majority of new citizens I have known approx 75% have been Republicans.
This is especially noticeable with Cubans. Every Cuban I've ever known even the ones born in America are hard core Republicans. When Marco Rubio started getting national press coverage I wasn't surprised in the least with the values he represented. (and he was born in America btw)
Remember that the Cuban refugees were the wealthy elite who had their estates and factories confiscated by Castro. They were always fervently anti-Communist and turned sharply against the Democrats with the failure of the Bay of Pigs. They have always been a political outlier from the overall Hispanic immigrant population.
What I always have found surprising is that people assume new immigrants that become citizens (thereby having the right to vote) would automatically be Democrats. Perhaps my experience with immigrants is unique, but the majority of new citizens I have known approx 75% have been Republicans.
This is especially noticeable with Cubans. Every Cuban I've ever known even the ones born in America are hard core Republicans. When Marco Rubio started getting national press coverage I wasn't surprised in the least with the values he represented. (and he was born in America btw)
This is also true of Vietnamese. I have a few friends from there, all Republicans.
The problem with the theory that has been proven inaccurate for 5 decades is that people tend to become more conservative when they get older and the parties themselves change to attract voters.
What's different this time is that the Boomers, due to their large numbers, will be dying off at a faster rate than the Millenials and Gen-X'ers turning conservative. It's not a one-for-one deal where for every Boomer that expires a Millenials changes party affiliation. Over the next 10 to 15 years the country will shift more towards the Democrats and the Independents.
The fact is our Hispanic population isn't made up of newcomers at all. About 70% of the Hispanic vote comes from folks who were born here, most often 3rd or 4th generation native-born citizens.
George W. Bush was certainly aware of that fact as a Texan, and he both pulled a lot of support from the Hispanic vote and appointed a lot of Hispanics once elected. So did Barack Obama. But as a Chicagoan, Obama was less successful than Bush.
Why haven't the Democrats captured more of them? Because the party neglected building ground-level support for the 8 years Obama was in office. Even longer than that- ever since Bill Clinton, the Democratic party spent far more time and effort trying to snag wealthy, white people with lots of money than spending time in the barrios trying to raise populist support.
And then they nominated the worst possible fly-over nominee in 2016. Hillary hated working down at the ground level as badly as Mitt Romney hated it. But unlike Mitt, she wouldn't even make an attempt to reach the folks down on the streets, of any heritage or color.
Donald Trump saw that early on, and intentionally ignored all the Big Money boys, going straight to the base and grabbing tight to it with both hands.
I give him full cred for that savvy; he saw it when no one else in his own party did, and no Democrats at all saw it until it was far too late.
What's different this time is that the Boomers, due to their large numbers, will be dying off at a faster rate than the Millenials and Gen-X'ers turning conservative. It's not a one-for-one deal where for every Boomer that expires a Millenials changes party affiliation. Over the next 10 to 15 years the country will shift more towards the Democrats and the Independents.
Another question is whether the post-Millennial generation will continue the trend of liberal youth or turn more conservative. (Remember that young does not always equal liberal; for example during the 1980s young people - Gen-Xers at the time - leaned more conservative than the population at large, and may have helped contribute to the Reagan and Bush 41 Presidencies.)
I'm predicting a racial split - White "Gen-Zers" (I'll call them that for now) being more conservative (or at least more moderate) than White Millennials, but the growing minority population among that generation (and particularly those who are foreign-born or still have familial ties to their parents' homeland) will continue to lean liberal.
Part of the problem with this debate is that political parties are not stagnant. Trump was the most anti-trade of any Republican nominee in my lifetime. That helped close the gap in the rustbelt states. People also assumed he would be less socially conservative than he has been as president.
Younger generations have grown much more socially liberal but will vote R based on national security or fiscal conservatism. At the moment (aside form lower taxes) Trump has been a social conservative with liberal fiscal policy.
I still think winning the popular vote in Presidential elections 6 of the last 7 times shows a demographic strength. Unfortunately for Dems the demographic strength has not been paired to a geographic strength...
Another question is whether the post-Millennial generation will continue the trend of liberal youth or turn more conservative. (Remember that young does not always equal liberal; for example during the 1980s young people - Gen-Xers at the time - leaned more conservative than the population at large, and may have helped contribute to the Reagan and Bush 41 Presidencies.)
I'm predicting a racial split - White "Gen-Zers" (I'll call them that for now) being more conservative (or at least more moderate) than White Millennials, but the growing minority population among that generation (and particularly those who are foreign-born or still have familial ties to their parents' homeland) will continue to lean liberal.
There will be a split after all the baby boomers die off, however IMO the split will be among socioeconomic lines, not racial.
We are seeing the last hooray (hopefully) of racists now with Trump in office.
There will be a split after all the baby boomers die off, however IMO the split will be among socioeconomic lines, not racial.
We are seeing the last hooray (hopefully) of racists now with Trump in office.
So true.
The "savior of white christianity" is exposed as a charlatan of the highest order, yet the evangelicals cling to him like a sand burr because of his strong over-arching racism.
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