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It's inevitable that the 2 neighboring state of California, NV & AZ, are going to go the California route, no stopping it.
Or you might say the rest of AZ may go the route of zany, liberal Tucson, where I just moved here from conservative Las Vegas.
Only time will tell. I think, like many regions of the country trends change every couple of decades: CA used to be moderate or leaned slightly right when it came to electing leader: Look back to the late 70s and some more recent elections: AR used to be very blue until about 10 years ago. Yes, there were some GOP representatives like Huckabee but mostly leaned blue though not liberal necessarily. AZ as we know has been very red for years. The south used to be Democrat period. I don't know if I would go so far as to say, NV and AZ will become blue in the next few years: I think purple is more likely.
Other polls around the same time so McSally trailing, and overall the average of the polls still shows Sinema up, though this is certainly one that deserves closer watching.
I see it the same way you do and I see many races that way: constantly changing. It might be one of the most interesting mid term elections we have had in years.
I feel that in the last few years that people's willingness to respond to polls or at least respond honestly have added more volatility (and estimation error) to them in general. Throw in technological challenges that could add additional respondant bias and they could potentially be even more dicey.
I think that after this mid-term and with data from 2016 as well, there will be a lot more emphasis on the polling groups that get it mostly right and those that don't have a clue.
And as always, there can be voter reaction to polls as well meaning that by predicting a big win you could harm turnout etc. etc. etc.
McSally recently sent out a mailer showing Phoenix being incinerated by a mushroom cloud and claiming that Sinema would lead to that scenario if elected. McSally's other ads have called Sinema a sex trafficker (or at least an enabler) and attacked her for things she said and did while a college student many years ago (Kavanaugh anyone?) while ignoring her actual congressional record. Many of these ads are from the Republican Senate committee and other outside groups. That they are still running suggests they work with Republican voters. That is not surprising to me. The conspiracy and reality disconnect of the Arizona right is extreme.
You must have missed the memo on Texas, different groups who back GOP candidates have made some huge buys in recent weeks to prop up Cruz, who looks like he is on the ropes.
McSally recently sent out a mailer showing Phoenix being incinerated by a mushroom cloud and claiming that Sinema would lead to that scenario if elected. McSally's other ads have called Sinema a sex trafficker (or at least an enabler) and attacked her for things she said and did while a college student many years ago (Kavanaugh anyone?) while ignoring her actual congressional record. Many of these ads are from the Republican Senate committee and other outside groups. That they are still running suggests they work with Republican voters. That is not surprising to me. The conspiracy and reality disconnect of the Arizona right is extreme.
I didn't see that ad, but have heard about it on the local news. Both sides in that race are running 100% negative campaigns, so blaming this stuff on the "reality disconnect" of the "extreme right" only serves to expose your own bias. If you think "McSally will lie about anything" you are part of the problem.
Not a good look AT ALL. Shame on her. It's one thing for her to be modest in regards to herself. It's another when she is willing to throw her fellow Arizonans under the bus for a few "laughs". I was on the fence between the two, but I detest this type of behavior.
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