How Do We Measure Democrat Success in 2018 Elections?

[thecoalman]

Originally Posted by jas75

Many purple and light red district Democrats are committed to opposing her speakership, and to renege on that promise would expose their campaign as dishonest.

Those members are in the minority, if anything I would suggest a speaker left of Pelosi (left of Pelosi LOL) would emerge.

[LS Jaun]

Even if they lose know they will fine in the future. Why do you think they are cultivating Illegal Aliens? Having an uninterrupted supply of Illegals and their children insures that in one more generation only Democrats will be elected.

[my54ford]

Originally Posted by godofthunder9010

There's a nice little cycle of sorts that's been consistent since the presidency of Bill Clinton: Every new president begins with control of both houses of Congress. They lose control of both houses two years later and spend the remaining 6 years fighting an almost impossible uphill battle with Congress. I happen to like this cycle because I'm very Libertarian. I'm all in favor of keeping the government from being able to do much. You deal with two years of one party going nuts, but it gets shut down in short order. I could wish for unending gridlock, but that doesn't seem to be in the cards.

Based on that cycle, if the Democrats fail to take control of both houses of Congress, that's a failure to maintain status quo. If they take the House but not the Senate or vice-versa, then that's an embarrassment. If the Republicans retain control of both houses, the Democrats should toss their entire playbook in the garbage and start over.

Current projection has the Dems taking the House but the GOP keeping the Senate. And considering how reliable the polls were in 2016, all bets are off across the board. Anything can happen. Dems could win both houses or neither. We won't know until the election results come in.

Thoughts?

Power Divided is Power controlled!!!

[silverkris]

Originally Posted by thecoalman

Trump has been repeatedly audited by the IRS over the past few decades so if you think they missed something go for it. You're actually making my point for me... if you think another 2 years of going after Trump is the way to endear voters to your cause I believe you and the Democrats are making a very bad miscalculation.

Your bravado is pretty funny, but I'm pretty sure you would still want your boys (yes and most of them are) to hold the gavel.

Oh, it's not just about taxes. Russia, collusion, the emoluments clause. And to keep the Republicans from gutting Social Security and Medicare are a few things.

[godofthunder9010]

Originally Posted by nmnita

It seems most of us agree, for it to be a successful DEM year they have to take back the house for sure. I don't mean pick up some seats, that is a foregone conclusion they will do that. A real success, going back to what so many were thinking a few months ago they would have to pick up the senate as well. This is unlikely. Now what will they say is a success? even picking up 2 or 3 house seats. Only a few more weeks ladies and gentlemen.

The reason I disagree with this is pretty simple: We've been living in an auto-gridlocking system. Why? Because ultimately, the American people really don't like either party very much. As soon as one of them gets control of the White House and Congress at the same time, the American People tend to flip the script as soon as the midterms roll around, giving the party opposite the White House control of Congress and effectively stopping the insanity. If the Dems fail to recapture the Senate, that tells us a lot about how they did for the past several years. It means that the people of America are losing faith in the Democratic Party and actually increasing in faith in the Republican Party.

Now this sounds terrible if you're rooting for the Democrats and wonderful if you're rooting for the Republicans, but the bigger picture is that both parties suck. Neither is fit to run this county. If the Republicans are viewed as superior to Democrats, that's nothing much to get excited about. It's two piles of feces and you're taking a poll on which one stinks less.

[dsjj251]

Originally Posted by thecoalman

My prediction is this cycle will be broken, I've already suggested previously a win by the Democrats in 2018 is not necessarily a bad thing for Republicans. Assuming the Democrats take the House and/or Senate which are possibilities they are going to go off the rails with impeachment and other things setting up Trump and the GOP for a major win in 2020. I'm actually half hoping they do take the House because IMO it all but guarantees a major win by Republicans in 2020

The problem for you and Republicans is that this isnt 2010, by which I mean The House is actually set up for Dems to fail, the fact that they are even competing is a problem for you guys.

You have gerrymandered districts that are in play that shouldnt be. It shows a shifting dynamic, and I dont see either the Green Candidate or the Libertarian candidate gettting as many voters in 2020 as they did in 2016.

[dsjj251]

Originally Posted by mrpeatie

Isn't Nelson the only D (aside from Obama) who has won statewide in Florida over the last dozen years? He is fairly Conservative for a Dem. Also- both Florida and Ohio have only elected Ds in presidential years lately- not in mid terms. So wresting the Governorships would be a major show of strength.

I dont view Nelson as all that conservative . He votes with the Dems far more than any other conservative democrat.

And im 100% sure Ted Strickland was elected governor in a midterm as was Alex Sink as CFO of Florida . Bill Nelson and Sherrod Brown were both elected in 2006 as well.