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Some people are expressing doubt in the polls ability to project anything a year or eighteen months out. As the article below observes, these were the same geniuses that saw Hillary Clinton as unstoppable.
Democrats and Republicans alike are skeptical of early polls predicting a landslide victory for Democrat Joe Biden over President Trump on Election Day 2020.
To Trump and Republicans, the polls are fake news and no more reliable than surveys predicting Hillary Clinton would be elected president in 2016. Some Democrats are equally skeptical, warning their party not to buy into the early data.
“These same geniuses all predicted that Hillary Clinton was unstoppable and inevitable,” said Chris Kofinis, a Democratic pollster. “Anyone who believes that the Democratic candidate is headed for a landslide victory right now is doomed to repeat the tragic history of 2016,” Kofinis said. “It’s a fundamental mistake for anyone to believe that reality can be projected or predicted based on these polls this far out from the general election.”
The doubts surrounding polls underscore the degree to which confidence in the polling industry collapsed in 2016, when much of the public was blindsided by Trump’s victory.
It should be noted that they have waited until Joe Biden's numbers have already collapsed to a significant degree before offering these very bold observations.
There’s still a silver lining for Warren, the highest-profile candidate in the first night of the debates. Her spot means that she won’t have to compete for attention with other front-runners, potentially amplifying her voice on stage.
Also debating on the first night are former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas), Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.), former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio, Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii), Washington Gov. Jay Inslee, former Rep. John Delaney (D-Md.), Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio) and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.).
The lineup sets up what is almost certain to be a heated showdown on the second night of the debates, pitting four of the highest-profile Democratic presidential hopefuls against one another in a two-hour spectacle.
Sen. Amy Klobuchar shifted further into the pro-impeachment camp, saying Friday she would support the House starting proceedings to remove the president “beginning now.”
Klobuchar had previously been more ambivalent on the issue, as recently as several weeks ago reiterating that she saw impeachment as “one way to investigate and hold this administration accountable if the White House keeps stonewalling.”
The Minnesota Democrat is just the latest 2020 Democrat to back impeaching the president, and her shift comes days after Trump said in an interview he would likely accept dirt on a political opponent from a foreign national or government, and wouldn’t necessarily alert the FBI about it.
Of course it should be noted that Klobuchar is lagging well behind in the polls and is therefore looking for a way to spark her campaign leading up to the first Democrat debates on June 26 and 27.
George Will, a former Republican who has a very serious and very public affliction of TDS, recommends that the Democrats practice 'modesty' if they want to beat Trump in 2020. A goal which he has routinely expressed that he desires for them to achieve.
Will suggested that Democrats focus on securing the African American vote, which he predicted will be "the decisive Democratic faction." Will cautioned that issues such as Supreme Court packing, impeaching Trump, abolishing the Electoral College "and other gesture-promises probably are distractions.”
A 2016 Pew Research Center survey that found just 27 percent of African American Democrats identify as liberal, while a plurality describe themselves as moderate.“The decisive voters might be those who crave not transformation but restoration — the recovery of national governance that is neither embarrassing nor exhausting,” Will wrote.
Will noted that Democrats have won the popular vote in six of seven presidential elections, urging the party to focus on “how to subtract states from Donald Trump’s roster.”
“Democrats must make amends with the 402 other counties that voted for Trump after voting for Obama at least once. This will require the Democrats’ progressive lions to lay down with the Democrats’ moderate lambs, a spectacle as biblical as it is inimical to progressives’ pride about their wokeness,” he wrote.
This modesty "will require the Democrats’ progressive lions to lay down with the Democrats’ moderate lambs, a spectacle as biblical as it is inimical to progressives’ pride about their wokeness,” Will said. Which I get the impression he does not have a high level of confidence is actually achievable. He also suggest that issues like Supreme Court packing, impeaching Trump, and abolishing the electoral college are "distractions" that are not consistent with the 'modesty' that he is recommending.
Anyone believe the Democrat left 'wokesters' are up for this kind of disciplined and self controlled approach? Anyone?
She has to do well here to be able to stay in the race past the first four primaries (Super Tuesday comes next). This is not what she has to be looking for.
Of course it is still too early to be jumping to any final conclusions about what will happen in any of these races. But if she is going to be competitive in this race, she is going to have to do better than this, especially in the early state that she believes that she has the best chances in.
The early debates this summer are going to be important for all of the Democrats who are running, but they are going to be especially important for Kamala Harris.
“I think she’ll blow out Bernie pretty early on. Bernie will lose his votes to her,” said the host of MSNBC’s “Hardball.”
He explained:
I think Elizabeth Warren can win Iowa, because she’s very aggressive, very progressive, activists show up. We know how it works. The more moderate people don’t show up that often. She goes to New Hampshire, home court. Then she goes to Nevada, a big labor state; she could win three in a row. She’s the one who could start really fast. I think she’ll blow out Bernie pretty early on. Bernie will lose his votes to her.
This is quite a prediction. Something to keep an eye on.
Rush Limbaugh weighs in. He thinks Joe Biden is finished because certain segments of the establishment Democrat left and the media are turning on him with a view towards getting him out of the race. Limbaugh says that these people believe Biden cannot win and they do not want to wait for the inevitable.
Joe Biden. This guy is finished. It’s over, and you know how you know it’s over? It’s nothing to do with this segregation business, although I think that’s the trigger for it. But you want to know how this is over? Well, let’s go to audio sound bite number 10. This is ABC News. This is Good Morning America today. This is a portion of chief national affairs correspondent Tom Llamas’ report about Hunter Biden’s business dealings in Ukraine and with the ChiComs.
{more at the link}
That’s it, folks. If ABC News is going after the Hunter Biden-ChiCom-Ukraine scandal, it’s over. Somebody in the Democrat-media complex has decided it’s time to take Plugs out. Don’t know the specific reason. We’ve been talking about these deals. Conservative media has educated their audiences on all of this China, Ukraine, Joe Biden setting his sons up to become obscenely wealthy. Nobody was interested. Now, all of a sudden, out of the clear blue… It’s not in the clear blue.
{Still more at the link}
Guess what? New York Page Six, New York Post Page Six. “Hunter Biden accused of fathering child with Arkansas woman.” Folks, I’m telling you, the decision has been made by the media, which is the Democrat Party. Remember, I have been saying for the last couple years that it’s the media leading Democrat Party. The media is gonna vet Democrat candidates. The media is gonna decide which of those people is the Democrat nominee. I am convinced of it.
So Rush Limbaugh is calling it here. He is usually right about this kind of thing. And who here that is going to vote Democrat believes that the Democrats and the media are enthusiastically behind this guy right now? They are squirming like crazy.
Now I have to say it is still all a little fuzzy to me, because if the establishment Democrat left is going to give up on Biden, there is not a clear and plausible choice who will represent their interests the way that Hillary would have or that Joe Biden would. The rest of this crew - at least those who are even near 5% in the polls - are all out there a ways and are not going to be dependable establishment choices.
Bernie? LOL. Nope. Kamala Harris or Corey Booker? It does not look like it. Beto? {Insert facepalm here}.
Two choices left - Pocahontas and Mayor Pete. By the media coverage I have seen over the last two weeks, it appears that these people are moving to promote Elizabeth Warren as their new preferred front-runner. And if Rush Limbaugh is right, the partisan Democrat left media will play a determinative role in picking the nominee for the Democrats.
This is starting to remind me a bit of the 2012 Republican primary contest, where the base and others were fishing around for alternative candidates to Mitt Romney, moving from Newt Gingrich to Herman Cain, etc. They instinctively knew that they needed to go a different way, but they were not sure which way to go. It looks like the Democrats are starting to go through a similar process.
Rush Limbaugh weighs in. He thinks Joe Biden is finished because certain segments of the establishment Democrat left and the media are turning on him with a view towards getting him out of the race. Limbaugh says that these people believe Biden cannot win and they do not want to wait for the inevitable.
So Rush Limbaugh is calling it here. He is usually right about this kind of thing. And who here that is going to vote Democrat believes that the Democrats and the media are enthusiastically behind this guy right now? They are squirming like crazy.
Now I have to say it is still all a little fuzzy to me, because if the establishment Democrat left is going to give up on Biden, there is not a clear and plausible choice who will represent their interests the way that Hillary would have or that Joe Biden would. The rest of this crew - at least those who are even near 5% in the polls - are all out there a ways and are not going to be dependable establishment choices.
Bernie? LOL. Nope. Kamala Harris or Corey Booker? It does not look like it. Beto? {Insert facepalm here}.
Two choices left - Pocahontas and Mayor Pete. By the media coverage I have seen over the last two weeks, it appears that these people are moving to promote Elizabeth Warren as their new preferred front-runner. And if Rush Limbaugh is right, the partisan Democrat left media will play a determinative role in picking the nominee for the Democrats.
This is starting to remind me a bit of the 2012 Republican primary contest, where the base and others were fishing around for alternative candidates to Mitt Romney, moving from Newt Gingrich to Herman Cain, etc. They instinctively knew that they needed to go a different way, but they were not sure which way to go. It looks like the Democrats are starting to go through a similar process.
Will it all end with a similar result?
I have been waiting to see whether MSM/Democrats would go after Biden over Hunter Biden's sleazy deals in Ukraine and China. I figured it might come from Bernie later in the game, but it's already starting. Story from ABC news reporter Tom Llamas yesterday slams Biden, and puts a convoluted story in a form digestible for Joe and Jane Sixpack. https://abc30.com/biden-refuses-to-a...lings/5355149/
Quote:
Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden declined to answer questions on the campaign trail this week about his son's overseas business dealings in countries where the then-vice president was conducting diplomatic work
I'm starting to think there may be credence to the conspiracy theories that Democratic party honchos do not want Joe Biden as the nominee. This happened sooner than I expected.
Meanwhile, the Democrat left media is putting up puff pieces about Elizabeth Warren.
For example, here is an article from Politico - a bastion of establishment Democrat political media if ever there was one - who is now proclaiming that Warren is a "compromise" candidate. This strikes me as them saying they realize she is not as establishment oriented as they would like, but what other choices are there?
Centrists who once said the senator would lead the party to ruin are coming around to her as an alternative to Bernie Sanders.
There was a time not so long ago when leading Democrats warned that Elizabeth Warren’s “fantasy-based blue-state populism” risked leading the party to ruin.
But in a revealing tell of how far her campaign has come since its early February launch, some unlikely voices in the center of the party are growing more comfortable with the idea of Warren as the nominee.
It’s a sign of how the ideological lanes of the 2020 primary have blurred and overlapped and of the steady progress Warren is making as a candidate. But it’s also a statement on Bernie Sanders, Warren’s top rival for progressive votes. Sanders continues to face significant resistance from within the party — and nowhere more so than among the moderates and establishment players who blanch at his talk of democratic socialism.
Blah, blah, blah. The whole article goes on and on about her being an alternative to Sanders. But what really matters is that they appear to be presenting her as an alternative to Biden.
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