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The polls don't matter so much when this election is a "horseshoe" election for the president. Trump doesn't need to win. He just needs to keep it close enough to be legitimately contested. With the powers of the Office of the President and the powers of the Office of the US Attorney General, Trump will prevail. I cannot see how Biden can win if the election is contested in any way.
The polls don't matter so much when this election is a "horseshoe" election for the president. Trump doesn't need to win. He just needs to keep it close enough to be legitimately contested. With the powers of the Office of the President and the powers of the Office of the US Attorney General, Trump will prevail. I cannot see how Biden can win if the election is contested in any way.
I sinceely hope that if Trump does win (and he very well might) it isn't for the reason I bolded above. That is where we get into scary abuse of power that we like to think we are above. That's third world authoritarianism and dismissal of the rule of law.
I sinceely hope that if Trump does win (and he very well might) it isn't for the reason I bolded above. That is where we get into scary abuse of power that we like to think we are above. That's third world authoritarianism and dismissal of the rule of law.
And it would perhaps irrevocably split the nation in incredibly damaging ways. Many Trump supporters have outright offered vocal support for cheating and subverting the election on this forum. They have no interest in protecting the country. They only care about winning no matter the cost.
The polls don't matter so much when this election is a "horseshoe" election for the president. Trump doesn't need to win. He just needs to keep it close enough to be legitimately contested. With the powers of the Office of the President and the powers of the Office of the US Attorney General, Trump will prevail. I cannot see how Biden can win if the election is contested in any way.
I read this article before, it's interesting but there have been a few cases where the stock market made no indication of who would win, including 2016. So this is far from any kind of determination, plus Biden isn't a volatile figure, so no reason for the market to react.
As for the second part of your post, one thing to keep in mind is if Trump wins (through the method you mentioned) but the Dems take the senate and keep control of the house. Then he will immediately be impeached and actually removed from office, because the GOP wouldn't be able to stop it.
I read this article before, it's interesting but there have been a few cases where the stock market made no indication of who would win, including 2016. So this is far from any kind of determination, plus Biden isn't a volatile figure, so no reason for the market to react.
As for the second part of your post, one thing to keep in mind is if Trump wins (through the method you mentioned) but the Dems take the senate and keep control of the house. Then he will immediately be impeached and actually removed from office, because the GOP wouldn't be able to stop it.
Conviction in a Senate impeachment trial requires 67 votes.
Conviction in a Senate impeachment trial requires 67 votes.
If Trump did contest the election that Biden "won" by 10M votes and 100+ EV and Trump somehow got the SCOTUS to effectively anoint him as President and Trump openly admitted that he stole the election and usurped power...
Republicans in the Senate would STILL not convict him of any crime. That is the dangerous world we live in.
The thing is, impeachment investigations showed multiple smoking guns. The problem is Republicans just didn't recognize them as smoking guns - therefore they aren't. That was the difference between Nixon and Trump's impeachment. Enough Republicans recognized Nixon's crime as such. In 1976, they barely lost the election to Carter (297-240, by 1.5M votes).
Think about that. Republicans did pay a price for Nixon, but nearly won the election anyway. Republicans gained a seat in the Senate. Republicans lost a single seat in the House. There really wasn't much political penalty for Republicans ousting Nixon. This was likely in part to how Republicans didn't tie themselves to the sinking ship.
I think the market is underestimating a Biden win, which is likely. When it becomes apparent that Biden is the winner, I look for a sizable drop, at least temporarily.
I think the market is underestimating a Biden win, which is likely. When it becomes apparent that Biden is the winner, I look for a sizable drop, at least temporarily.
That usually only happens when there is an unexpected result. Like when Trump won in 2016 there was a steep drop, followed by a rally shortly after.
Conviction in a Senate impeachment trial requires 67 votes.
Correct, I was mistaken.
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