Rasmussen: Obama/dems have a 62% chance of winning (Ron Paul, voters, Congress)

[victorianpunk]

Rasmussen Reportsâ„¢: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election. (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/election_2008_electoral_college_update - broken link)

Even with the primaries as bitter as can be, even with McCain, who is seen as "moderate" and "independent" (none of which is true, as he is a neocon warmonger who apparently hates the constitution but loves Bush) having a UNOPPOSED STATUS SO FAR as no democratic nominee has been named, Even with all the controvery surrounding that priest (who Obama has no real ties to and is not "his preacher", since Obama isn't catholic) even with all this going on, still, Obama is ahead slightly in the real clear politics poll-of-polls RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 National Head-to-Head Polls and is ahead were it counts: swing states. All he has to do is win two of the toss-ups, and that's it, shows over.

But, for some people here, facts mean nothing.

They say Obama can't win white voters.... sooo right, as the landslide victories he had in Idaho, Oregon, Utah, and Vermont were just because bus loads of blacks were shipped in as a result of the vast, left wing conspiracy. They say he can't win rural voter...yahh, because Wisconsin is just all urban sprawl. They say he is going to get dogged down by controvery...yes, since McCain has NEEEEVERR said or done anything scandalous (cheated on ex-wife with current wife, screwed over former POWs for political gains, flip-flopped on immigration, saught support of crazy reverend Hagee...) and Obama sure doesn't have the experience to get elected. Look at when Kennedy ran against Nixon, he had no experience, therefore he lost to Nixon!...ohhh, wait....

Also, if you need yet another reason why Obama will win, look at this one thing that NO ONE can deny: for the first time in history, every black person in America who can vote, will vote, and guess who they are going to vote for?

Just as Evangelicals pushed Bush over the top in '04, blacks will push Obama over the edge in '08.

But of course, there will still be those who deny the data and the truth.


BOTTOM LINE: If McCain isn't winning now, running unopposed against a bitterly divided Democratic Party with the media giving him a free ride, HOW THE HELL DO YOU THINK HE'LL BE ABLE TO WIN IN NOVEMBER?

[ryneone]

Your eyes must be dizzy.

Well see in October how their chance is!~

[victorianpunk]

Originally Posted by ryneone

Your eyes must be dizzy.

Well see in October how their chance is!~

You mean after Obama is the official nominee, has a running mate, and the media is done with the democratic primary coverage and has chance to focus it's attention on McCain and his past?


Ohh yes, that will certaintly give him the egde

[ryneone]

Give your eyes a break will yea.

Let it play out.

[Old Gringo]

Keep in mind that Rasmussen is generally GOP-friendly, too. For instance, they still show Bush with a 33% approval rating. Others show him dropping to 23%. They have consistently overrated the Republican position.

I find their "62% chance" to be a very conservative estimate.

[delusianne]

I look forward to Obama and McCain's debates.

Does anyone else get the feeling that McCain down inside doesnt care whether he wins - that he was pushed into the whole thing and would just as soon be sitting out on the porch in the sun?

Originally Posted by Old Gringo

Keep in mind that Rasmussen is generally GOP-friendly, too. For instance, they still show Bush with a 33% approval rating. Others show him dropping to 23%. They have consistently overrated the Republican position.

Didn't know this.

[georgia dem]

it is JUNE
lets wait til the general election is under way
I know Obama and his group wants to play all the numbers but it is far from over,
it has not even started yet.
the polls are not reflecting how many dems are going to vote for McCain or stay home, there are plenty of us that will not accept Obama
just because the DNC is in denial, does not make it false

[walidm]

Does anyone find it odd that of all the published and publicized numbers - the Most difficult to find are the numbers of voters in the GOP primaries?

[walidm]

Originally Posted by georgia dem

it is JUNE
lets wait til the general election is under way
I know Obama and his group wants to play all the numbers but it is far from over,
it has not even started yet.
the polls are not reflecting how many dems are going to vote for McCain or stay home, there are plenty of us that will not accept Obama
just because the DNC is in denial, does not make it false

You've been accounted for and replaced. The youth voters, Hispanics and African Americans as well as Bob Barr and Ron Paul far offset your sitting home. If anything it'll be great to know you guys didn't vote - you know what they say - if you don't vote you can't complain.

Silence is Golden.

[LordBalfor]

The poll doesn't suprise me one bit.
That's the outcome I expect.

With the country in such sorry shape and an electorate so unhappy with almost everything, it would take a miracle for the sitting party to hold on to the Presidency.

That's the simple reality of politics.

The Republicans had their shot - controlling both houses of Congress for many years, as well as having the Presidency for the last 7+ years - and they've blown it big time. The rout started in the last election and will continue in this one - with the Democrats making big gains in Congress and taking the Presidency once again.

At that point the Republicans will turn on each other - with most fingers pointing to Bush - who they will likely compare to Carter (who THEY consider to be the most incompetent President of the modern era).

Eventually their bloodbath will end and they'll start to regroup in hopes of making gains in the next mid-term election (which they will likely do).

Ken