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My honest answer is "I don't know", but would place a small bet on Obama at this moment. However, the odds to me are narrowing, I would have bet him at 70/30 to win a month ago, while I would have him at 60/40 today.
To me it all comes down to a very simple analysis. Of the Bush states from 2004, which are potentially going to switch to Democrat? I see possibilities for Colorado, Virginia, Missouri and Ohio. For the states that supported Kerry, which might switch to Republican? I see possibilities for Pennsylvania and Michigan.
Too early to predict right now, but those are what I view as "battleground" states.
My prediction is that McCain will prevail, 272 to 266
States in the McCain column:
Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, West Virginia, Wyoming
States in the Obama column (unfortunately):
California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, Wisconsin, and the District of Columbia
Last edited by Colts; 07-17-2008 at 11:30 AM..
Reason: added colors
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