Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
The problem with all these polls is that they only are done through people who have "land lines." The vast majority of people under 30 communicate only through cell phones, text messages, and my space. And since the majority of those young people are solidly in Obama's corner. I have a strong hunch that folks will be surprised by how skewed the polls turn out to be.
Tuborg; It won't matter right now if obama goes over 50 - the polls will continue to fluctuate with McCain's VP and the GOP convention; After Labor day - the race to the wire begins!
I see you've learned your lesson well about trying to predict polls. Good for you.
I disagree for this reason. If either candidate goes over 50% it then represents a day that they would have won. It also means that the other candidate can't win even if they get all of the undecideds but they must also move voters from the other to them. No candidate thus far has gone over 50% and to have that in your range is significant. Rember the margin of error is also the range for each candidate. Example if one is at 53% and the margin of error is 3% then you can see the significance. Anytime you have majority it carries with it a psychological advantage. This race has been close and clearly in the hands of the undecided. 50% presents a shift in how much weight is the hands of the undecided. Yes it is this far out and all polling this far out is subject to much change. But either candidate reaching 50% demonstrates they can win. If they both cross it then it shows they are each capable of obtaining a majority of the vote. Remember if they are identified as committed and not leaning then the impact of a third party candidate is not as great if a candidate can cross the 50% polling threshold.
You know, I think I understand the importance of all these polls... it give folks something to talk about... but that is about it. I live in a red state. It has been a red state for as long as I can remember. It will probably remain a red state for my entire lifetime. What do these polls mean to me? Not a darn thing. I view these polls like very much like the Hillary fanatics do/did. The majority of votes means nothing in the system we use. A 100% vote for McCain in my state equals 15 electoral votes. An 80% vote for McCain equals the same. Am I wrong in this math?
The polls of aggregate counts of voters don't matter. The states (Electoral College) elect the President. So you have to look at what's going to happen in each state. There are only a few states that are truly up for grabs. Those are the ones to watch for. Also, watch which states the two candidates spend the most time in between today and the election. Those are likely the "toss-up" states this time around, as directed by their own pollsters.
I just can't see McCain getting as large of a bounce, considering he'll be having Bush and Cheney speak.
He can't even get 10,000 people to show up for his VP announcement. Obama got double that, midday, in the middle of the week here in Tampa before he even won the nomination.
The problem with all these polls is that they only are done through people who have "land lines." The vast majority of people under 30 communicate only through cell phones, text messages, and my space. And since the majority of those young people are solidly in Obama's corner. I have a strong hunch that folks will be surprised by how skewed the polls turn out to be.
Gallup is done via land lines and cell phones. Bad argument.
And this is a VERY small bounce from a convention. But, we will have to wait and see the true bounce until Saturday.
About friggin time. I was starting to worry there for a minute.
Of course, McCAin will get a bump after announcing his VP and during his convention as well so the numbers are pointless at this point.
Wait until the debates, then the polls will start to look interesting.
It will all be about the debates. I never thought it would come down to just the debates. I thought Obama had it in the bag until people started wondering and the gap closed. Obama IMO needs to really limit the number of debates and really, really work on his debating skills. He will have to do better than he did in the primaries. It will be one on one with a candidate that will really point out the fact that he has little substance behind his ideas. If he can just win a couple of the debates or hold his ground he might win. If he unravels and looses like we all know he can it might be over. This is going to get real interesting.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Seems there are at least 18 million on the left that don't like her. 
