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I do. I have said before I don't really trust the polls, either way. But how can I complain about a poll McCain is leading in when the party affiliation still favors a democrat?
There are two polls out today from Calif that have Obama by 10 in each. At first glance, that would seem very close, too close for some. But looking at the party ID of one, it looks like they oversampled republicans; 44(D), 39(R), 16(I).
I can immediately tell these two polls are faulty.
I don't agree with you very often but I apply the same techniques when looking at polls and statistics. When I was taking my graduate classes, some of my favorite courses were my stats courses. If anyone wants to be better equipped to look at data, they should read Darrell Huff's book How to Lie with Statistics. It will certainly make clear how numbers can be manipulated to support any agenda which is why you need to review who is sponsoring the poll or research, how is the sampling being done, what is the margin of error, etc. You should also compare findings to other similar data sources. I happen to believe Obama may have a slight lead based on a combination of the data I've been reading but there is a high margin of error (I believe higher than what's reported) so I'm not jumping up and down. Neither party should be resting on their laurels by relying on these poll results.
You guys have to remember the polls are USED by the media to give the perception they want. And they obviously are rooting for obama. They manipulate the party affiliation, and sometimes you have wild disparity between the pollsters and what figure they use.
So when obama is up by 5 with 10% more dems you can look at that as a tie. Also have to look at other demographics and how they play with those numbers as well.
Then why do you post links to polls when they are in McCain's favor?
The first step to recovery is to stop denying your eventuality. Once you come to grips with Obama being President everything else will fall right in line and you will stop making these ridiculous claims in hopes of trying to convince yourself otherwise.....LOL
There is a reason a majority of Americans think Obama won the debate: Because McCain is an angry, rude, condescending old fart who is, quite honestly, not much better than Bush. At least Bush knew he was too stupid to make a decision all by himself, McCain will actually think he is qualified.
Americans may not all be in love with Obama as much as they are concerned about McCain.
And with Ms. South Carolina as his running mate, the picture gets even worse for that 72 year old geezer.
Go back to Arizona John and convince the voters there to keep sending your angry butt to Washington. We have alot of damage to repair from the past 8 years and cannot tolerate you doing 4 more years of damage
I don't agree with you very often but I apply the same techniques when looking at polls and statistics. When I was taking my graduate classes, some of my favorite courses were my stats courses. If anyone wants to be better equipped to look at data, they should read Darrell Huff's book How to Lie with Statistics. It will certainly make clear how numbers can be manipulated to support any agenda which is why you need to review who is sponsoring the poll or research, how is the sampling being done, what is the margin of error, etc. You should also compare findings to other similar data sources. I happen to believe Obama may have a slight lead based on a combination of the data I've been reading but there is a high margin of error (I believe higher than what's reported) so I'm not jumping up and down. Neither party should be resting on their laurels by relying on these poll results.
It will be interesting on election night. The exit polls in 2004 where so very wrong - They had Kerry taking the election by a comfortable margin. They will have to be careful, considering how obama overpolls compared to the actual vote.
I felt McCain did marginaly better overall in the debate, but his use of stale lines from stump speeches hurt him. I'm on the fence in this election and am very unhappy with both candidates. In any case, whoever wins in November will be utterly overwhelmed by events. Even King Solomon couldn't help us at this point.
Poise and presentation were the deciding factors in Win or Lose. Obama was able to retain his composure and to express himself clearly both on detail and on vision....he was in command and inspired respect and confidence. He passed the test of.....is he ready?
Contrast this with the grimacing, pouting, eye twitching and mumbling angry man who was McCain.
He came off as a pugnacious banty rooster strutting around the barnyard looking for a fight and not caring about what. He makes the words, "My Friends" sound like a curse. It is like a drop of spittle that escapes his mouth involuntariy and hits you in the face--you want to wipe it off.
His inability to make eye contact or to address his adversary is a clear view into his ability to negotiate.
I also thought McCain's hero worship of Gen Petreaus began to make it seem like the wrong war hero was running. He uses the general's name like a "get out of jail free card" in a close game of monopoly or an incantation that if he says it he gets extra points, even if he is wrong.
There is a reason a majority of Americans think Obama won the debate: Because McCain is an angry, rude, condescending old fart who is, quite honestly, not much better than Bush. At least Bush knew he was too stupid to make a decision all by himself, McCain will actually think he is qualified.
Americans may not all be in love with Obama as much as they are concerned about McCain.
And with Ms. South Carolina as his running mate, the picture gets even worse for that 72 year old geezer.
Go back to Arizona John and convince the voters there to keep sending your angry butt to Washington. We have alot of damage to repair from the past 8 years and cannot tolerate you doing 4 more years of damage
He shows anger so well - he grits his little teeth, and it looks like spit is going to come out of his mouth. We can't have an angry person in charge of the free world.
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