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Rasmussen
50% Barack Obama
45% John McCain CNN
49% Barack Obama
41% John McCain ABC NEWS
53% Barack Obama
41% John McCain
I agree that polls are not reliable, and Obama supporters should not get too confident, but the polls must have some validity when the majority put Obama at least 5 points ahead of McCain!
Hey, just pointing out the obvious for the less-thinking individuals. I've said the same thing as yesterday when Gallup had Obama by 4 - the polls are suspicious. Especially the national polls - some going up, some going down.
So, his new LV traditional model was 4 yesterday, now it's 7. Hmmm - me thinks he's fudging the Party ID numbers. That 4 probably scared the beejebus out of him.
Notice also; He added 151 respondents to his new LV voter model that includes more young voters and blacks. It is clear.
who is this "he" you keep referring to? He, Him..... conspiracy theory eh?!?!?!
Also what is the source of your claim below?
Quote:
Originally Posted by sanrene
Notice also; He added 151 respondents to his new LV voter model that includes more young voters and blacks. It is clear.
RV vs LV and the NEW LV model with those demographics favoring Obama; lol
So, his new LV traditional model was 4 yesterday, now it's 7. Hmmm - me thinks he's fudging the Party ID numbers. That 4 probably scared the beejebus out of him.
Most pollster will be transitioning to the LV model - Gallup has Obama by 7.
Notice also; He added 151 respondents to his new LV voter model that includes more young voters and blacks. It is clear.
Sorry, I am having a really hard time understanding your analysis.
First, as someone else asked, who is this 'him' you are referring to?
Second, the 'traditional' LV model is notorious for omitting first-time and lapsed voters. When you say that most pollsters will be transitioning to the 'LV model' to which model are you referring? LV I or LV II. If LV II, then, yes, I agree with you, since it is far more representative of the population as a whole.
That being said, of course 'he' added 151 respondents to the new model, or rather, more to the point, those 151 were not screened out based on the qualifiers of LV I.
And yes, of course, 'he' added more young voters and blacks since that is where the highest percentages of new voters are coming from.
Keep in mind that regardless of the final sample size, all that counts are the final percentages.
Did you even bother to look for yourself? Yesterday Gallup (He), started listing the Poll for the LV model;
In which he said;
Quote:
Likely Voter Estimates
Obama's current advantage is slightly less when estimating the preferences of likely voters, which Gallup will begin reporting on a regular basis between now and the election. Gallup is providing two likely voter estimates to take into account different turnout scenarios.
The first likely voter model is based on Gallup's traditional likely voter assumptions, which determine respondents' likelihood to vote based on how they answer questions about their current voting intention and past voting behavior. According to this model, Obama's advantage over McCain is 50% to 46% in Oct. 9-11 tracking data.
The second likely voter estimate is a variation on the traditional model, but is only based on respondents' current voting intention. This model would take into account increased voter registration this year and possibly higher turnout among groups that are traditionally less likely to vote, such as young adults and racial minorities (Gallup will continue to monitor and report on turnout indicators by subgroup between now and the election). According to this second likely voter model, Obama has a 51% to 45% lead over McCain. -- Jeff Jones
They said the same thing in 2004 with the intentions of voters, especially young voters (remember, they were to come out in droves for Kerry?).
So his second LV model, which by all accounts would favor Obama, since the young and the black will be coming out for.
I thought RCP was very insightful on this most unusual step for Gallup to release 2 LV models.
The Gallup organization has taken the unusual step in its Gallup Daily Tracking Poll of releasing two sets of "Likely Voters" results.
In order to not double count the Gallup Daily Tracking poll survey results in the RCP National Poll Average, and given Gallup has made a deliberate decision to release two "Likely Voters" results and has not indicated a preference as to which "Likely Voter" model they feel is most representative for the general election, RealClearPolitics will average Gallup's two "Likely Voters" results for the Gallup Daily Tracking numbers used in the RCP National Poll Average.
Notice today RCP has the Gallup poll at 8.5 - this is the LV AVG between the two models.
When you say that most pollsters will be transitioning to the 'LV model' to which model are you referring? LV I or LV II. If LV II, then, yes, I agree with you, since it is far more representative of the population as a whole.
You make it seem like this is standard for a pollster. It is not and has never been done before.
Quote:
That being said, of course 'he' added 151 respondents to the new model, or rather, more to the point, those 151 were not screened out based on the qualifiers of LV I.
And yes, of course, 'he' added more young voters and blacks since that is where the highest percentages of new voters are coming from.
Can you provide a link to this assertion?
Quote:
The first likely voter model is based on Gallup's traditional likely voter assumptions, which determine respondents' likelihood to vote based on how they answer questions about their current voting intention and past voting behavior. According to this model, Obama's advantage over McCain is 50% to 46% in Oct. 9-11 tracking data.
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