How come the polls never tightened? (voters, Obama, American, election)

[Americanboy]

Everyone said they would tighten at the very end, but I haven't seen Obama's leads as large as they are now in the final polls. 13, 10, 11, 9 points, etc.

[brokerdave]

because the polls changed there models and are including big black voter turn out and young voters, but yet the polls have found that they only expect about a 3-6% increase in black voter turnout and 0% increase in young voters. they never re-adjusted the models to reflect it.

that is why the numbers are so skewed

i think that obama has a a +2 pt lead using the historical models and adjusting for the anticipated turnout. undecideds and non-affiliates will be the swing votes.

[Pressing-On]

Originally Posted by brokerdave

because the polls changed there models and are including big black voter turn out and young voters, but yet the polls have found that they only expect about a 3-6% increase in black voter turnout and 0% increase in young voters. they never re-adjusted the models to reflect it.

that is why the numbers are so skewed

And because 75% of voters vote on Election Day.

[normie]

Originally Posted by Americanboy

Everyone said they would tighten at the very end, but I haven't seen Obama's leads as large as they are now in the final polls. 13, 10, 11, 9 points, etc.

October Surprise?

[brokerdave]

Originally Posted by Pressing-On

And because 75% of voters vote on Election Day.

funny over 30% have already voted and they are expecting 36% with absentee. i can see facts are your cornerstone.