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The GOP will gain seats in the House, but that's not that surprising. The (D)s carry a lot more districts that lean (R) than the opposite. Typically, the president's party loses seats in the first MidTerm election. The question is how many seats the (R) party will gain. I hope it's a LOT so there can be some checks and balances in the House.
Senate races actually favor the (D)s b/c there are more competitive races held by (R)s than (D)s. Hopefully, the Rs can minimize the damage in the Senate.
Too early too tell. Many people, myself included, have not made up their minds as to who they will vote for. Additionally there are very few districts, in which, challengers have declared their intentions to run and as such there are almost no polls or comprehensive fund raising numbers.
The GOP will gain seats in the House, but that's not that surprising. The (D)s carry a lot more districts that lean (R) than the opposite. Typically, the president's party loses seats in the first MidTerm election. The question is how many seats the (R) party will gain. I hope it's a LOT so there can be some checks and balances in the House.
Senate races actually favor the (D)s b/c there are more competitive races held by (R)s than (D)s. Hopefully, the Rs can minimize the damage in the Senate.
Agreed. Senate is the key. Having a larger minority in the house does the GOP no good. Party must gain a 41st Senate seat or remain impotent.
Too early too tell. Many people, myself included, have not made up their minds as to who they will vote for. Additionally there are very few districts, in which, challengers have declared their intentions to run and as such there are almost no polls or comprehensive fund raising numbers.
Rasmussen does a generic Congressional poll, which is now basically tied. The (D)s had been up regularly until April or so, but it's very tight now.
Rasmussen Reports™: The Most Comprehensive Public Opinion Data Anywhere (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/congressional_ballot/generic_congressional_ballot - broken link)
Rasmussen does a generic Congressional poll, which is now basically tied. The (D)s had been up regularly until April or so, but it's very tight now.
Rasmussen Reports™: The Most Comprehensive Public Opinion Data Anywhere (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/congressional_ballot/generic_congressional_ballot - broken link)
Too bad you cannot run a generic Republican against a generic Democrat. Generic polls are pretty much useless for 2 reasons one quite a few people vote for the person not the party and two if a candidate has no money they cannot mount a real challenge. If you do not believe me look at the generic polls for the 2006 5th district race for Virginia. Polls showed a generic Democrat beating a generic Republican in the district by a small amount...the election result Goode (R) 59% Weed (D) 40%.
Too bad you cannot run a generic Republican against a generic Democrat. Generic polls are pretty much useless for 2 reasons one quite a few people vote for the person not the party and two if a candidate has no money they cannot mount a real challenge. If you do not believe me look at the generic polls for the 2006 5th district race for Virginia. Polls showed a generic Democrat beating a generic Republican in the district by a small amount...the election result Goode (R) 59% Weed (D) 40%.
I understand individual polls would be better than a generic poll, but the generic poll is useful if you follow it over time as you can spot a trend. The trend (weekly poll) was solid (D) for several consecutive years until the (R)s pulled ahead one week in March. It has been very tight since.
There are some individual polls for Senate and Gubernatorial races, but I think it's too early to read into a poll. In that sense, a generic poll like Rasmussen can serve a purpose for now. I think it's clear that there is an (R) shift right now, b/c the (D)s are out of control and the (R)s are so badly damaged and the (D)s so strong the gap is more likely to shrink than widen. The party in power's reputation will change with the Economy. As the Economy continues to tank, the (R)s will gain just as the (D)s did last Fall.
The Governor's races (VA and NJ) in November of 2009 may give a sense of where things stand.
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