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The FACT is, the job losses are ending. They are clearly not done YET, but the end is in sight - and based on the fact that the cuts last month were a lot less than anticipated it's quite possible the end of the cuts may come earlier than predicted.
THAT is what is the good news.
It really doesn't take a brain surgeon to understand that.
Ken
Because the job loss isn't as large as other months the end is in sight? lmao keep believing the snake oil salesmen who have been wrong time after time. Doesn't take a brain surgeon to understand that is the game fools play.
Plus the long term ramifications are still to come.
Because the job loss isn't as large as other months the end is in sight? lmao keep believing the snake oil salesmen who have been wrong time after time. Doesn't take a brain surgeon to understand that is the game fools play.
Plus the long term ramifications are still to come.
Yup, the end is in sight.
We're not there yet, but we will be.
Aside from June (which was a temporary spike) EVERY SINGLE MONTH since January has seen a reduction in job losses - falling from over 700,000 in January to 247,000 in July.
I hate to disappoint you (not really ) but you're not going to get to see the doomsday you seem to crave so much. The recession has probably already ended, house prices have stablized, and now job losses are dwindling. By next spring there will be job growth. The only question now is "how many jobs and how fast?"
The recession has probably already ended, house prices have stablized,
housing stabilized?
8/13/9 Sales increase, prices fall - Real Estate News - MiamiHerald.com (http://www.miamiherald.com/business/real-estate/story/1183736.html - broken link)
Sales in South Florida were up in the second quarter, but falling home prices pushed more homeowners underwater, which could lead to more foreclosures.
8/11/9 The negative home equity nightmare: Housing won't stabilize until 2011
But as real estate markets across the country have seen price declines between 10 percent (Dallas) and 54 percent (Phoenix), an estimated 11 to 15 million households are now "underwater" on their mortgages, owing more than their house could be sold for today. This overhang, already being blamed for exacerbating the decline in residential real estate, likely won't peak until 2011, according to a research note from Deutsche Bank obtained by DailyFinance.
The FACT is, the job losses are ending. They are clearly not done YET, but the end is in sight - and based on the fact that the cuts last month were a lot less than anticipated it's quite possible the end of the cuts may come earlier than predicted.
THAT is what is the good news.
It really doesn't take a brain surgeon to understand that.
Ken
Employers initiated 2,994 extended mass layoff events in the second quarter of 2009 that resulted in 534,881 job separations. Both the number of events and separations were record second quarter highs. (bls)
facts speak for themselves.
The economy has lost over 6.6 million jobs since the recession began, which is way above the job losses that we are used to seeing in recessionary periods when job losses have ranged between 1.5 million and 2.5 million. The large job losses of the past months and longer unemployment duration will continue to weigh on the economy in the coming months. The unemployment duration improved slightly in July from the record high witnessed in June, which is positive news. Unemployed workers are falling behind their debt payments, raising defaults on loans and making government mortgage modification programs ineffective. Default rates on various loans have already surpassed the unemployment rate. According to the Moody's credit card index report, published in May 2009, the credit card charge-off rate crossed 10% in May 2009 and is expected to reach a peak of 12% by the second quarter of 2010. (roubini)
Last edited by floridasandy; 08-13-2009 at 05:15 AM..
Employers initiated 2,994 extended mass layoff events in the second quarter of 2009 that resulted in 534,881 job separations. Both the number of events and separations were record second quarter highs. (bls)
facts speak for themselves.
Yes they do - and the fact is BOTH month to month and quarter to quarter that number have been generaly DROPPING since January. The statement above that "Both the number of events and separations were record second quarter highs" is true but the fact is BOTH were significantly LOWER than the first quarter numbers. The link you posted even shows that (click on the "More" link in quarterly section) - quarterly separations in 1st quarter were 704,618, quarterly separations in the 2nd quarter were 534,881. That is a DECREASE - lower even than the 4th quarter of LAST YEAR when quarterly separations were 641,578. The number of layoffs have peaked and are descending.
The same is true for the monthly numbers. The document states: "In June, employers took 2,763 mass layoff actions involving 279,231 workers. The number of mass layoff events decreased by 170 and associated initial claims decreased by 33,649." That's a direct quote from YOUR link.
The fact is, quarter to quarter and month to month numbers are DOWN. Even your own source of the data supports that.
This is the document the quote you posted originally came from:
The fact is, the layoffs are ending.
Does that mean everything is rosy?
Of course not - the economy is VERY WEAK (hence the need for the stimulus) but the fact is the wave of layoffs is ENDING - even your own post supports that.
Ken
Last edited by LordBalfor; 08-13-2009 at 08:21 AM..
8/13/9 Sales increase, prices fall - Real Estate News - MiamiHerald.com (http://www.miamiherald.com/business/real-estate/story/1183736.html - broken link)
Sales in South Florida were up in the second quarter, but falling home prices pushed more homeowners underwater, which could lead to more foreclosures.
8/11/9 The negative home equity nightmare: Housing won't stabilize until 2011
But as real estate markets across the country have seen price declines between 10 percent (Dallas) and 54 percent (Phoenix), an estimated 11 to 15 million households are now "underwater" on their mortgages, owing more than their house could be sold for today. This overhang, already being blamed for exacerbating the decline in residential real estate, likely won't peak until 2011, according to a research note from Deutsche Bank obtained by DailyFinance.
The falling home prices you mention above are year over year and month over month when compared to the same month last year - which is very true, but the last few months have seen those prices bottom out and start upward in most of the country. Everyone knows that prices fell through all of last year and early this year (tell me something I don't know ), but over the last couple of months that trend has reversed and prices are now RISING overall. Take a look at this story - which I reached by clicking the link " South Florida home sales up, prices may be stabilizing" on the left side of YOUR Miami Harald link:
South Florida home sales up; prices may be stabilizing - Afternoon Update (stories) - MiamiHerald.com (http://www.miamiherald.com/1374/story/1154443.html?storylink=mirelated - broken link)
It states quite clearly: "The median single-family home price in Miami-Dade has risen for the past three months, from $177,000 in April to $194,700 in May and $211,400 in June. In Broward, the median in April was $191,300, followed by $190,000 in May and $204,800 in June.
This mimics the trend throughout most of the nation. Prices HAVE fallen compared to the same month LAST YEAR, but they are starting to move back UP again when compared to April, May, and June of THIS year - this is taking place even in Miami.
Will it continue?
Who knows for sure?
But the fact is, the ARE rising NOW - not in every market, but in most of the country.
Yes they do - and the fact is BOTH month to month and quarter to quarter that number have been generaly DROPPING since January. The statement above that "Both the number of events and separations were record second quarter highs" is true but the fact is BOTH were significantly LOWER than the first quarter numbers. The link you posted even shows that (click on the "More" link in quarterly section) - quarterly separations in 1st quarter were 704,618, quarterly separations in the 2nd quarter were 534,881. That is a DECREASE - lower even than the 4th quarter of LAST YEAR when quarterly separations were 641,578. The number of layoffs have peaked and are descending.
The same is true for the monthly numbers. The document states: "In June, employers took 2,763 mass layoff actions involving 279,231 workers. The number of mass layoff events decreased by 170 and associated initial claims decreased by 33,649." That's a direct quote from YOUR link.
The fact is, quarter to quarter and month to month numbers are DOWN. Even your own source of the data supports that.
This is the document the quote you posted originally came from:
The fact is, the layoffs are ending.
Does that mean everything is rosy?
Of course not - the economy is VERY WEAK (hence the need for the stimulus) but the fact is the wave of layoffs is ENDING - even your own post supports that.
Ken
--:but the fact is the wave of layoffs is ENDING "
You must not have read the news this morning.
" Jobless claims up last week, retail sales dip unexpectedly in July "
" newly laid off workers filing claims for unemployment rose unexpectedly last week "
" unemployment claims were at 554,000 the previous week and analyists expected them to drop to 545,000"
Instead, they rose to 558,000.
sure doesn't sound like the wave of layoffs is ending !
----" There really is no positive spin to put on these numbers"--says Jennifer Lee an economist with BMO Capital Markets
Don't worry, Lord Balfor will make a feeble attempt.
you proved me right, Lord Balfor
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