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In short, because it is unnatural. No civilizations that I know have disappeared because of low birthrates. In the 1970's everyone predicted population bomb that would cause millions of starvations. That was way off which just goes to show how innacurate our predictions are-that's all I'm saying.
The reason that the world grew so much in population in the last couple centuries was because people combined industrial society with agricultural-sized families. Less early deaths because of advances in medicine and better living conditions but it was still ingrained in people's heads to have large families. At the end of last century the Western world (and East Asia) overadjusted.
The predictions that western civilization will fade away within 50 years relies on the current rate of 3rd world immigration, high birthrates among immigrants, and low western birthrates. I don't know about Muslims, but Hispanics in America and much of the Latin American world are experiencing a reduction of birthrates.
I will admit that European's will have to wean themselves off of the paternal government of their's before its too late. Highly socialist societies may be great for the individual but in the long run deadly for the nation. Also, bad for the descendents of those in the socialistic "paradise". I think the trend is beginning, since France elected a conservative President.
Why do you say that the current situation will continue?
I don't think there will be a problem in the UK. Children are raising children. In the more deprived areas, school children think having babies is a career option!!!!
Well, regardless of whatever observations you have made, the facts and statistics are clear. Its probably the Moslem population that you are thinking of.
Has anyone here read America Alone by Mark Steyn?
He is the one that wrote the WSJ article posted by iamman. It covers what we are discussing thoroughly, although I don't think he should have completely written off Europe.
Why do you say that the current situation will continue?
Well, I don't believe that any culture will dissapear, especially ours. I do see the end of America as it has been known. If you believe in Samuel Huntingon's proposal that the US is a white, protestant, settler society than it can be argued we have already begun changing and the changes will only gain speed. I'm sure my perspective is different-I live in a California county where Hispanics are about %50 of the population and Asians another 11% or so. However, I think it's safe to say that both of us agree no population is near extinction.
I believe it will continue mostly because I find it rooted in logical arguments I understand. I am no demographer-just a college student. My knowledge on the subject came from a term paper I wrote in the spring about demographic changes in Japan and Russia. I do believe that postmaterialism is very very prevelent in our younger generations, and even more so in many places in Europe (which is the topic of the thread) and can make the connection that raising a family of 3 kids (to meet the replacement rate) just isn't in the plans of most of us. Even my relatives in Germany who are in their 30's complain raising two kids in Munich is just too expensive. And he makes a great living working for IBM! Standards and ideals have changed and I'm not sure what it would take for them to go back to what they were. 911 brought back patriotism and good old fashioned American values, but that seems to of been relatively short lived.
Oh, just to clarify, when I say 'us' I don't mean me specifically but 'us' as a younger generation.
I like Sarkozy and feel that his election is obviously only going to help us, but I have a hard time accepting that France is totally going to change. It was just in spring of last year that the youth of France were marching to protest more relaxed labor laws. I think the EU as a whole is an experiment in socialism on a grand scale. I'm just pretty skeptical that anyone is coming around yet.
Interestingly enough what you said about birth rates in Mexico coincide with the overall theory I was offering. If the theory is true, then those birth rates are going down simply because that is the next stage in the process. As education and economic prosperity rise and people urbanize, birth rates lower. It's not that I believe the US or Europe will, or Russia or Germany will become extinct, but that out of economic neccessity people will continue immigrating, and slow through intermixing and high birthrates of their own the countries as we know them will be changed. We have one congressman that is a Muslim in the US. 200 years ago that would not of been possible.
I haven't read that book-but now I want to. I was thorougly fascinated as I read the article because at the time this was still a foreign topic to me.
Well, I don't believe that any culture will dissapear, especially ours. I do see the end of America as it has been known. If you believe in Samuel Huntingon's proposal that the US is a white, protestant, settler society than it can be argued we have already begun changing and the changes will only gain speed. I'm sure my perspective is different-I live in a California county where Hispanics are about %50 of the population and Asians another 11% or so. However, I think it's safe to say that both of us agree no population is near extinction.
I believe it will continue mostly because I find it rooted in logical arguments I understand. I am no demographer-just a college student. My knowledge on the subject came from a term paper I wrote in the spring about demographic changes in Japan and Russia. I do believe that postmaterialism is very very prevelent in our younger generations, and even more so in many places in Europe (which is the topic of the thread) and can make the connection that raising a family of 3 kids (to meet the replacement rate) just isn't in the plans of most of us. Even my relatives in Germany who are in their 30's complain raising two kids in Munich is just too expensive. And he makes a great living working for IBM! Standards and ideals have changed and I'm not sure what it would take for them to go back to what they were. 911 brought back patriotism and good old fashioned American values, but that seems to of been relatively short lived.
Oh, just to clarify, when I say 'us' I don't mean me specifically but 'us' as a younger generation.
I like Sarkozy and feel that his election is obviously only going to help us, but I have a hard time accepting that France is totally going to change. It was just in spring of last year that the youth of France were marching to protest more relaxed labor laws. I think the EU as a whole is an experiment in socialism on a grand scale. I'm just pretty skeptical that anyone is coming around yet.
Interestingly enough what you said about birth rates in Mexico coincide with the overall theory I was offering. If the theory is true, then those birth rates are going down simply because that is the next stage in the process. As education and economic prosperity rise and people urbanize, birth rates lower. It's not that I believe the US or Europe will, or Russia or Germany will become extinct, but that out of economic neccessity people will continue immigrating, and slow through intermixing and high birthrates of their own the countries as we know them will be changed. We have one congressman that is a Muslim in the US. 200 years ago that would not of been possible.
I haven't read that book-but now I want to. I was thorougly fascinated as I read the article because at the time this was still a foreign topic to me.
Yes I pretty much agree with you. We have the same ideas as to why birthrates have lowered. I think the end is in site though, mainly because the E.U. in particular will require even more massive immigration to remain relevant at all and we can see how Europe is already having lots of troubles assimilating the current immigrants. I don't think one side should get all the blame-EU has been pretty pathetic in integrating them into the economy and culture but on the other hand, according to some polls, a sizeable portion of Muslim Europe supports Sharia law so they have no business living in the West.
And no, I do not believe in Samuel H.'s proposal. Our country was founded on immigration its just that I believe in doing so in moderation. Smaller amounts more easily assimilated. I stated earlier, U.S. should be a melting pot not a tossed salad. Don't mistake me for a white supremacist, I think culture is vastly more important. I have much more in common with middle-class educated blacks than I do with many whites. You're county may be 50% Hispanic but the city I grew up in is 50% black-much less hispanics though.
I also think that due to the cycle, first 3rd world immigrants in the West and then the 3rd world itself will have lowered birthrates so no civilization is doomed...yet haha....
Of course, I'm no demographer either and actually a college student also. Postmodernism, urbanization, feminism, abortion, and apathy about the future have combined for the low birthrates. Don't get me wront, women having equal rights is a great the for the whole nation, however its still a reason. Part of the reason I believe the birthrates will change is that popular public thought always does so. It may be our kid's generation but change will come, whether its waking up before its too late or sliding further into civilizational apathy.
Yes, EU is certainly socialism on a grand scale. The practices that have been commonplace there for years are now in hot debate here. I only hope that Europe will wake up and hope America doesn't follow. I don't think we will though-there is too much of that American self-reliance atttitude.
Interesting topic, I highly recommend Steyn's book. Just take it with a grain of salt. It will open your eyes to things but also uses slippery slope and alarmism when not necessary. We're probably 2 of only a few college students who've even heard of this book.
Most people I know who don't have kids cite wanting to "have a life" for that reason. My partner and I are included in that statement. We have no desire to have children, find them boring, and would prefer to enjoy our hard earned cash travelling, and suiting ourselves. People used to have kids because it was something which was seen as the natural order of things. You got married so you could would have kids and perpetuate the line. There was a certain myth about how a "normal" couple would naturally want to procreate. Also kids were seen as a kind of insurance for your old age, as they would look after you.
None of this is true any more.
Most people I know still have kids ( usually one , two at most) but quite a few like us make the decision not to.
I do not see the point, have no maternal instinct and do not wish to bring a child into the world that I would not be enthusiastic about raising. I also think a lot of people are pessimistic about the future of our planet and society and find it too daunting to raise children in less than ideal condition.
The lapse in religion has also IMO been instrumental in the decline of procreation. It used to be seen almost as a duty under god to procreate but now people are under no such theological constraints.
Thank God for the ever increasing multiracial/cultural marriages. When all that is done, we won't be worrying about which race is dying and which isn't because we will all be one..As God intended it to be.
Jadel812, I think the extinction of a race is directly tied to the extinction of a culture. France, Germany and other European countries have helped shape the western world with contributions in science, technology, music, art and literature. France brought democracy to Europe-even if the methods were flawed. I find it hard to accept that the demise of these cultures could in any way be a good thing. Luckily, such a scenario is still a long ways off in the future and can still be avoided.
Mooseketeer, I agree that if you don't want to raise a child you should not give birth to one and applaud that. It would be unfair to a child born into such a family where it is not wanted. My religious beliefs, however, constrain me otherwise. I have found unique happiness in giving of myself to my young wife and feel such an experience with children would only enrich me as a human being with, of course, the added benifit of having posterity, a continuation of the family name (if they are sons) and an opportunity to see the only thing I can truly create develop and grow into adults. I feel it is human to desire close family relations. However, for the sake of intellectual exchange, has there ever in history been a perfect world to bring a child into? Was the year you were born in such a world? My brief look at history tells me no.
Regarding America Alone I found it was a very highly reviewed book by readers on amazon.com, not something you see often. Closely related to the topics we have been discussing is the information on a websited, gapminder.org. The Rosling has created some amazing presentations with the use of modern graphics that somehow make this dull topic interesting. I would reccomend watching some of his videos on youtube, like this one on debunking myths of the third world.
Recent polling in Germany has shown that a majority of the population understands that their system can not be sustained in their current condition and reform is needed. However, they also reflect the societies lack of enthusiasm of dealing with these problems themselves as they feel that they are personaly well-to-do and although drastic changes will be necessary in the future that time has not come. Almost sounds like social security.
ok well in NZ [[wEll the town i live in]] There are ALOT of Teens getting Pregnant i know a girl and she was 13 when she fall pregnant she had the baby he is soo cute but i think she runend her life in a way...
The age to have sex is 16 hea so 13 is verry young
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