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After more upper level Conservative polticos have publicly expressed themselves essentially welcoming Britain's withdrawal from the EU, the Independent newspaper evaluates the various impacts of such a move.
Living in Europe I am exposed to news reports of how popular opinion in the UK seems to be anti-EU. But on a personal and local level, I have seen another side. An acquaintance in the UK, who has a small business, thinks such a move would be a disaster for him and for business in general. Local UK expats in the Algarve seem on the whole quite anti-EU, but ferociously opposed to Britain leaving because they are afraid it would jeopardize their status in Portugal and the EU.
The Independent cites 9 bn net as Britain's contribution to the EU, and the loss of that amount doesn't strike me as a catastrophe to the EU. Perhaps the other EU members should take a very stand off position in regard to the issue, and let the British simply present their yea or nay and have done with it.
What do Europeans (meaning the Continent and the UK both) think of the prospect of a British exit?
As an American I'm only an interested by-stander on this, but looking at the long term consequences, I think distancing themselves from the EU is a smart thing for the Brits.
Reason One: loss of freedom. Economic unions become political unions which lead to loss of national sovereignty.
Reason Two: centralization of power means you're responsible for the "other person's" mess-ups. One country goes bankrupt and the damage is limited. Combine several countries and you get one nice big bankruptcy.
Add more reasons if you like.
Btw, I was having a discussion with a German friend about this and got an ear full of his discontent with the EU to the point where I finally said, "let me ask you something...why in the world don't you people get the ... out of that thing?"
He explained how the politicians have all convinced that to do so would be a financial disaster. Which may or may not be true, although it makes me wonder how his country did so well before the EU existed. Anyway, he then says another thing influencing people on it is, they have folks convinced that the EU is necessary to prevent another European war.
That last argument I honestly wasn't sure I believed. By "believed" I don't mean the merits of it. I mean whether I believe anybody would seriously even suggest such a thing in the first place. And people actually believe that? Really...
What I wound up telling him was, if the only thing preventing all out war from breaking out in central Europe is the EU, then you've got FAR bigger problems to worry about.
But that's just a view on it from the other side of the old pond...
We'll never leave you say? Well a referendum is coming and I wouldn't be surprised if the UK voters vote to leave. Read a newspaper a referendum is coming.
We'll never leave you say? Well a referendum is coming and I wouldn't be surprised if the UK voters vote to leave. Read a newspaper a referendum is coming.
I fully believe that the referendum will be a big No to the EU. In my mind that is all but a done deed.
Personally, I will be far more interested in watching Mr. Cameron (if it is indeed him) attempt to bludgeon a deal out of EU members that would fend off a no vote, and the incredible contortions he will go through when that proves a failure not to have the "Norwegian relationship" be Britain's default position....but to wrest all sorts of special deals.
The Americans will be a bit less happy as they seem to think that Britain would their running dog in the EU.
It will also be interesting to see how the UK deals with the EU nationals in the country, especially as there are twice as many UK nationals employed in the EU.
The UK basically uses the EU as long as the EU tolerates that they have one foot in and one foot out.
As long as EU politicians tolerate this and that UKIP doesn't get much votes, the UK will stay in the EU.
Too bad for the majority of UK citizens who want out of it.
But UK is not a direct democracy my children.
Whether the UK stays in the EU or leaves, what are the pros and cons to each?
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