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This thread is about any post Election topics in Germany.
However, I would like to begin with a specific question I have about German politics. I think it's an interesting question, but it's not enough to sustain an entire thread.
I have noticed that Die Linke generally takes about 5% of the vote in western Germany and about 25% of the vote in eastern Germany. Do you believe this dichotomy will continue, or given another generation or two, will the support for Die Linke fall to what appears to be a natural level of support in the electorate for Far Left & Communist parties of about 5%?
In other words, is the extra 20% in vote that Die Linke receives in eastern Germany likely to die out through generational change with left leaning voters eventually gravitating towards the SPD or Greens?* Or can Die Linke sustain itself as a mostly regional eastern German party indefinitely (decades/century)?
*This would be similar to what occurred in France over the post-war period. Early in the post-war years, the French Socialists and French Communists each received about 20-25% of the vote. However, eventually, during the 80s and 90s the French Socialists were receiving 35-40% of the vote while the French Communists collapsed to 5%.
Regarding Die Linke, one can only hope people stop voting for the Leftists. They already have a former socialist in power (Merkel), isn't that enough?
Also, there could be problems with the coalition process. From the Guardian:
'A number of commentators are warning about the difficulty of negotiating a “Jamaica” coalition, mainly because of the incompatible positions of the Greens and the CDU’s sister party, the Bavarian CSU.'
The Greens would have to make large concessions to enter the coalition. Or possibility of a new election.
And if anyone has any thoughts on my long-term question about Die Linke,
please respond!
I think the Linke will get weaker when those who remember the DDR well will not be among us anymore. Probably not disappear totally, but be more on the fringes.
This thread is about any post Election topics in Germany.
However, I would like to begin with a specific question I have about German politics. I think it's an interesting question, but it's not enough to sustain an entire thread.
I have noticed that Die Linke generally takes about 5% of the vote in western Germany and about 25% of the vote in eastern Germany. Do you believe this dichotomy will continue, or given another generation or two, will the support for Die Linke fall to what appears to be a natural level of support in the electorate for Far Left & Communist parties of about 5%?
In other words, is the extra 20% in vote that Die Linke receives in eastern Germany likely to die out through generational change with left leaning voters eventually gravitating towards the SPD or Greens?* Or can Die Linke sustain itself as a mostly regional eastern German party indefinitely (decades/century)?
*This would be similar to what occurred in France over the post-war period. Early in the post-war years, the French Socialists and French Communists each received about 20-25% of the vote. However, eventually, during the 80s and 90s the French Socialists were receiving 35-40% of the vote while the French Communists collapsed to 5%.
The French communist party collapsed when the USSR fell because it was controlled by the Soviet communist party.
Where Die Linke will go is hard to say. It was formed by former East German communists. It probably should be outlawed, like the Nazis are.
The French and German Socialist parties took tremendous beatings this year. The German one, the worst showing since before WWI. Neither of them has been able to govern when in power so maybe voters are done with them. Some socialists, seeing their current low ebb, may move to Die Linke. Or the Socialist Party may adopt a more leftwing party as happened in Great Britain.
I look for migration of socialists to Die Linke, or vice versa if the Socialists become more leftwing as happened in Great Britain. Either Die Linke will grow stronger or it will go away. I don't think it will continue in the same strata as the liberals and greens.
The CDU will have to form a coalition without the SP. The Greens govern with it in Schleswig-Holstein so it looks possible. Merkel made a lot of political capital with them by phasing out nuclear power. The Green position on the EU in not irreconcilable with the CDU's, although it doesn't fit with the the Liberals.
They say it will be tough negotiations, which means, I guess, what parties get what ministries.
For non-Europeans, the Liberals are the FDP Free Democratic Party - generally described as a pro-business, low-tax party.
And if anyone has any thoughts on my long-term question about Die Linke, please respond!
It seems that the results for the Linke in East and West Germany are already somewhat converging. The AFD (the extreme right) is heavily gaining support in Eastern Germany on the expense of the Linke. There are about 60 constituencies in Eastern Germany. In most of them the Linke doesn't seem to achieve percentages of above 20%. The Linke will probably get about 7% in West Germany and about 18% in East Germany.
The distribution of the AFD strongholds is very strange. Very conservative rural areas in Bavaria, Eastern Germany and poor cities in the Ruhr area seem to be strongholds of the AFD.
Whereas rural and conservative areas in Northern Germany are far less prone for voting for the AFD.
There are definitely overlaps between the strongholds of the NSDAP in the Reichstagswahlen before 1933 and the AFD today
The French communist party collapsed when the USSR fell because it was controlled by the Soviet communist party.
Where Die Linke will go is hard to say. It was formed by former East German communists. It probably should be outlawed, like the Nazis are.
The French and German Socialist parties took tremendous beatings this year. The German one, the worst showing since before WWI. Neither of them has been able to govern when in power so maybe voters are done with them. Some socialists, seeing their current low ebb, may move to Die Linke. Or the Socialist Party may adopt a more leftwing party as happened in Great Britain.
I look for migration of socialists to Die Linke, or vice versa if the Socialists become more leftwing as happened in Great Britain. Either Die Linke will grow stronger or it will go away. I don't think it will continue in the same strata as the liberals and greens.
the social democrats ( soft left ) performed very poorly , the hard left maid gains , social democrats across europe are loosing ground , opinion has become very polarised with both the far left and the far right gaining ground , same thing happened in france early summer , the reality is the only difference between the far left and the far right is surrounding race , both are highly statist and anti private enterprise
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