[StarfishKey]

Originally Posted by OptimusPrime69

Even if we do get hit, it's only gonna be a cat 1.... so I dont think it'll be like this devastating storm (thnk goodness)....maybe some localized power outages, branches down, yard debris, etc.... I think with 4 or 5 days after the storm you'd never know there was a hurricane.

Hard to say. That wasn't the case with Sandy, which even at Cat 1 devastated areas of multiple states and continues to have a few remnants that you can see even today. But that had unusual conditions of high tide and full moon simultaneously, despite having very low rainfall accumulation.

Many tropical storms in the past have caused devastating conditions, due to a high level of rainfall. Consider in this case how the rain of Erika has led to deaths and destruction from mudslides, even as a tropical storm in the Caribbean, because it just so happened there was a severe drought before it and the land could not handle all the rainfall.

The damage caused by hurricanes, and how long it takes to clean up, has to do with far more than just wind speed. It's so many different factors together. We in SFL have better building codes than in the past... but a majority of the structures in the state were built BEFORE those codes went into place. Plus, there is something to be said for populations that have become complacent because it has been a decade since a real storm hit - many new people who do not know hurricane preparedness procedures, many older people who take safety for granted without preparing...

Hopefully, it fizzles and is nothing, or heads out far enough into the ocean that all we get it some rain. Hopefully, even if it IS a hurricane that hits directly, it will be the kind of low-impact Cat 1 deserving of the low category.

But history has proven over and over and over again that the number on a storm does not necessarily directly correlate with the damage and lives lost. It also depends on factors like how much rainfall, how fast-moving the storm is (versus dumping rain for days on one area), whether the strongest side of the storm hits over the ocean or directly over tall buildings or trailers, what time tide is vs. what time the storm hits, what phase the moon is in, and so many other factors. It's not a simple calculation. That's why it's always best to prepare for the worst, and then if it's much less than that at least you know you're prepared for next time.

In some storms, they even circle around the same area more than once, as in the pattern of Hurricane Dennis:


Dennis was such a slow storm it dumped a ton of rain in the same area, fortunately not all of which was over land.

In Hurricane Wilma, the Keys got flooded twice by a random circumstance of the way the storm hit:
"The Lower Keys also experienced an unusual flood: it occurred twice. First, as the storm approached Florida, it pushed water across the keys from south to north. As the storm finally crossed into the Everglades, all the water that had been pushed by the storm was released as Wilma crossed the peninsula. The water then raced back across the Lower Keys a second time and went back out to sea. This caused additional flooding and costly damage."

So what category a storm is is just a small part of the equation. Let's hope Erika does not cause any more death or devastation, to any nation. PR needed rain - let's hope that's all they get.

[Sweetbottoms]

Ha! Preparing for a Cat 1 is like stocking up for a thunderstorm. Unless its 3 or above I'm not doing anything.

[StarfishKey]

Cat 1s can also spawn multiple tornadoes, as hurricanes and even tropical storms do throughout SFL.

The number of the hurricane is not the measure of the severity of the expected storm damage or its potential danger - it is only a measure of its expected wind speed. That doesn't include rain, flooding, tornadoes, any of that. Some tropical storms are absolutely devastating. Some Cat 2s do very little damage at all.

[OpinionInOcala]

I'm prepared for the zombie apocalypse at all times.

[jambo101]

If a big hurricane is heading your way keep your gas tank full and have an alternate plan than heading for the interstate,heres a pic of the traffic chaos that ensued before hurricane Rita slammed into Texas.=
http://www.ridetowork.org/files/imagecache/content/files/images/7_Houston_Texas.jpg,
Also dont forget the important stuff=
http://bcgavel.com/wp-content/upload...ol-300x300.jpg

[OptimusPrime69]

Originally Posted by Sweetbottoms

Ha! Preparing for a Cat 1 is like stocking up for a thunderstorm. Unless its 3 or above I'm not doing anything.

I kinda feel the same way, but as another poster has accurately pointed out even a cat 1 can cause more damage than anticipated.

I just wanna day off work!!!!
But with no power outages or anything.

[beckerd2]

We have the surf boards ready to go.

[The Villages Guy]

The governor just declared a state of emergency for Florida, in preparation for the storm.

[StarfishKey]

Looks like we are going to be lucky. Let's hope so. At the moment, it looks like it may hit directly or near the Upper Keys/Miami at 60mph with a lot of rain (I think Dominica got as much as 15 inches in some parts - but that could change a lot by the time it hits us), and then move upward into FL as a weakened tropical storm with 45mph.

For waterfront areas especially, this is still a concern - more than a foot of rain and 60mph winds for people in oceanfront or canalfront trailers in the Keys (of which there are shockingly many) can cause a lot of serious damage. Plus, as mentioned the debris many of us have in regards to construction since the economy has been recovering, and those who have not taken care of tree limbs. I am definitely worried about my neighbor's 80ft tall invasive Australian pines directly over my head, which they have not had time to cut to less dangerous heights yet. These types of trees that do not do well in such winds are all over the Keys, and likely coastal Miami too.

But this is still much better than a hurricane, and there is even a chance that after today's ride over the mountains in DR, the whole system will break up and all we'll get is some rain and gusty wind.

Still a good time to take stock of your plan for a more significant storm, check your gear, replace components that are missing or broken, etc.

[Restrain]

Sucker swung more westerly, forecasters still saying it is going to swing north. If it does, may run right up either center of Florida or the west coast. But starting to think it may just move into the Gulf as a tropical low, reform there.