[chopchop0]

Originally Posted by jambo101

I thought the topic was about the viability of a Miami Orlando train system.Seems we have now switched the topic to electric cars .

The topic is whether the train will change things. I argue it will not because advances in autonomous and electric vehicle transport will be far greater and more impactful on our car-centric society

[expatCA]

Originally Posted by jambo101

I guess you will enjoy the proposed train then.
For many the time saved by taking the train is made up at each end when it comes to getting to and from the station,And once in Orlando taking buses and taxi's every time you want to go somewhere.

It will have a small impact, but as you pointed out there has to be secondary transportation. If I knew no such secondary transportation was available for my use, easily at least, I would not take the train.

This train is being built now and uses current technology so it will develop faster. Will it ultimately cover the whole State, nope, but it might grow and link other popular areas (Not just speaking of tourists).

Electric driver-less cars and such will come but far slower due to the continuous problems they face. Not just the dangers but the number of people who may feel uncomfortable, those who prefer to drive and the down time recharging. Then making and buying of enough cars to grow their use, will take time and money and initially at least add to congestion.

Older areas like NY, DC etc started such transportation plans long ago and that is why they have both subways and trains. Newer developing areas will have an extremely tough time catching up, if ever as they are far more spread out now, whereas the older cities were not when they started. The US as an example can never be like say the UK as the Country is so much larger and has so many open spaces, which is why even trains do less passenger wise than they did in the past.

[projectmaximus]

lol @ jambo arguing with chopchop when chopchop actually agrees on the topic at hand.

Anyway, again with regards to Brightline I would probably be one of their target riders (after phase 2/3/4) and I am not yet sure how certain I am to use it. Would definitely depend on the schedule and price points. Although I don't mind driving long distances at all, I definitely like the convenience of doing work or other things instead of paying attention to the road. I also hate traffic and if my travel times coincide with certain rush hours the train would be a welcome alternative. But that said I am not going to spend an exorbitant amount for said conveniences. Especially with OW plane tickets regularly at ~$50 for JAX-MIA, flying is a viable alternative (after uber it's about $90 from home-to-home) The cheap flights puts a cap on how much I would be willing to pay for a train, while the flexibility of driving requires the train option to be rather flexible as well. So I would guess that my likelihood of taking a potential Brightline from MIA to JAX diminishes greatly if last-minute fares are over $100 and it takes over 8 hours. If it is under $75, around 6 hours, and I can choose to go at the last minute then I could see myself taking it several times a month.

Same type of logic applies to a potential MIA-TPA route, although a few differences for me. I wouldnt have a vehicle in Tampa so the price has to make sense after rental car is taken into account. It's also a more expensive flight typically (~$110 OW) and a shorter drive so the numbers change. Maybe a Brightline fare would have to be around $50 and make it in under 4 hours for me to choose train over driving.

Orl-MIA, which is obviously the most imminent expansion after WPB, is the one I think would be most feasible but at the same time I am not sure yet that I'll need to be traveling to Orlando much at all.

But all that said, I am very excited to see what happens. It may fail, but this is the first time we're seeing something like this in the US. They will need to find a price point that drives the highest ridership, since their business plan is based on high pedestrian traffic and not actual fares.

[WithDisp]

It would be a game changer if it was going to work.

But how can it?
How possibly can a private rail succeed when only ONE public line in the entire country turns a profit? (Acela Line)

How can Brightline compete with low cost airfare?

How can the space they use at Orlando Airport actually benefit them, being miles away from attractions and a public transit system in Orlando that has been an absolute failure and may not see weekend service in it's current iteration?


Most importantly to me though, how can all of these variables make for a business plan that works?
I honestly think Brightline was built to fail and default. I honestly can't imagine a situation where it does not.

Mass transit relies on mass subsidies in this country, in nearly every instance.

[projectmaximus]

Originally Posted by WithDisp

Most importantly to me though, how can all of these variables make for a business plan that works?
I honestly think Brightline was built to fail and default. I honestly can't imagine a situation where it does not.

Mass transit relies on mass subsidies in this country, in nearly every instance.

This is exactly why it would be a game changer for this country. Cause it would really be the first time private rail could succeed (since the 1930s that is), and they would be doing it by flipping the business model around. Brightline's parent company owns ROW, land and real estate throughout the state all along their rail lines. This is a real estate holding company using a transit system as one of its amenities. They are building some pretty incredible class A property at their Miami, FTL and WPB stations and have already attracted major tenants. Like I said, I don't know if this will succeed or not, but you must admit it's a bold attempt to find a way to make transit feasible.

[DanielAvery]

I honestly think Brightline was built to fail and default. I honestly can't imagine a situation where it does not.

I've always believed the intention was to expand freight movement via train. The folks behind this packaged it as "passenger rail" because it sounds really nice to some people...and it will be passenger-focused for a while. Then, as people realize it's basically AMTRAK with a nicer coat of paint, ticket sales will go down. Since the Brightline people have to pay back all these loans and such, they will "suggest" some freight cars be added, "just to temporarily help their bottom line". The expanded Panama Canal will mean more freight at the Miami port needing to get north, and companies willing to pay big $$$ to get people to move it. Freight will supplant passengers, and after a while (I'm guessing less than fifteen years) Brightline will morph into just another company shipping freight (which was the plan all along). They will bemoan the fact that people just weren't willing to change their lifestyle (as if the "failure" is the fault of us evil car owners), and that their switch to freight is "the only way to survive".

[WithDisp]

Originally Posted by DanielAvery

I've always believed the intention was to expand freight movement via train. The folks behind this packaged it as "passenger rail" because it sounds really nice to some people...and it will be passenger-focused for a while. Then, as people realize it's basically AMTRAK with a nicer coat of paint, ticket sales will go down. Since the Brightline people have to pay back all these loans and such, they will "suggest" some freight cars be added, "just to temporarily help their bottom line". The expanded Panama Canal will mean more freight at the Miami port needing to get north, and companies willing to pay big $$$ to get people to move it. Freight will supplant passengers, and after a while (I'm guessing less than fifteen years) Brightline will morph into just another company shipping freight (which was the plan all along). They will bemoan the fact that people just weren't willing to change their lifestyle (as if the "failure" is the fault of us evil car owners), and that their switch to freight is "the only way to survive".

That is an interesting take on it that seems somewhat realistic as well.

[Restrain]

If the intermodal operations in Miami pick up anywhere near the operations in DFW, the rail lines will be swamped with freight. There are massive freight yards which ship from the Texas border all the way to both coasts, and the freight rail can literally have trains waiting for the track to clear for the next one. It will just depend on the type of rail installed by the company. Normal light commuter rail track won't hold the freight.

[kyle19125]

Originally Posted by DanielAvery

I've always believed the intention was to expand freight movement via train. The folks behind this packaged it as "passenger rail" because it sounds really nice to some people...and it will be passenger-focused for a while. Then, as people realize it's basically AMTRAK with a nicer coat of paint, ticket sales will go down. Since the Brightline people have to pay back all these loans and such, they will "suggest" some freight cars be added, "just to temporarily help their bottom line". The expanded Panama Canal will mean more freight at the Miami port needing to get north, and companies willing to pay big $$$ to get people to move it. Freight will supplant passengers, and after a while (I'm guessing less than fifteen years) Brightline will morph into just another company shipping freight (which was the plan all along). They will bemoan the fact that people just weren't willing to change their lifestyle (as if the "failure" is the fault of us evil car owners), and that their switch to freight is "the only way to survive".

I somehow doubt that the NTSB (and others) would allow a rail carrier to mix freight with passenger service due to varying risk factors.

[jambo101]

Problem i see with this venture is how many people actually travel from Miami to Orlando and would be willing to take a non stop train instead of their car.