[Nerad]

Originally Posted by skeddy

Another rate hike will have mortgages up to 7%. Still plenty of cash buyers.

That’s assuming the same makeup of cash buyers are immune to macro economics.

We’re likely going to be a cash buyer or have a tiny mortgage if I can convince my wife to actually downsize. Still doesn’t mean all the other economic issues don’t impact us. But as equity falls elsewhere the cash buyers will dry up.

I’m also watching in real time the price drops and things sellers are doing to their properties so they get a sale.

Those cash buyers who bought second homes will head for the exits to save equity and escape the rising insurance/condo/HOA fees. The ROI for recent buyers on rent is totally out of whack in many suburbs of FL.

The easy money days are over.

[Lillie767]

Originally Posted by beach43ofus

If you forecast a falling real estate market for enough years in a row, you'll eventually be right...common sense...no link needed.

"In 1966, four years before securing the Nobel Prize for economics, Paul Samuelson quipped that declines in U.S. stock prices had correctly predicted nine of the last five American recessions. "

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...wall#xj4y7vzkg



But this time it's different!

[beach43ofus]

Florida is on a roll. People are willing to pay cash in something they believe in. This was long overdue because our great state was undervalued for decades.

The naysayers were burned repeatedly, but eventually they'll be right, but most of us are so far up, we can't see the bottom.

If anyone lost on real estate here in the last 6 years, I'd be surprised. If anyone did, my condolences.

[Nerad]

Originally Posted by Lillie767

"In 1966, four years before securing the Nobel Prize for economics, Paul Samuelson quipped that declines in U.S. stock prices had correctly predicted nine of the last five American recessions. "

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...wall#xj4y7vzkg



But this time it's different!

I posted that in another thread. The hand waving and ignoring all the signs is why 2008 happened, it’s why this bubble happened, and we will have another one. People rationalize how this market isn’t a repeat of 2008 despite all the red flags.

People who get lucky with market timing think they are housing market geniuses.

This housing bust doesn’t even need a recession it’s already starting. People can’t afford the houses with inflated prices and now high interest rates. But yeah, “this time it’s different” lol

[silverct9a]

I’m really trying to understand your angle here. I agree with beach - predict something long enough and it may come true. Are you a disgruntled, priced out renter who’s hoping for a downfall to enter the housing market? I locked in a 2.5% fixed…essentially free money on a brand new home which requires practically zero maintenance for 20 years in a very hot market. What exactly could my downside be?

What’s the sensible alternative? Should I just be at mercy of landlords and build no equity?

Originally Posted by Nerad

Watch what happens…….