need help deciding what to do! time to buy? (Highland Beach: short sales, real estate) - Fort Lauderdale area - Florida (FL) -Broward County - City-Data Forum

bocamom · 08-09-2009, 10:13 PM

hi! well, I have a few choices.

i really like the new prices i am seeing on short sale listings. i am aware that properties can go higher than they are listed, but still. But the houses/apartments I want are still out of range. i could try get a decent consolation prize, but not what I really want.

My lease is up. my place is out of the way from everywhere I go and i am paying to live on the beach even though it is really just a great view and good air, not a good swimming beach. it is big for a beach apartment, though, and I rent month to month, and I already live there.

I found a perfect (not an easy thing for me to find as I am very picky!) rental on a very clean beach right where I want to be, but i can't do month to month there, only a one year lease, and it costs more yet is 350 sq ft smaller and has no ocean view so it is hard for me to get super excited, I keep thinking I could buy instead.

But I don't even know if I could get a loan. My income fluctuates wildly and my credit is good and I have down payment and I would not buy anything out of my range. i am pretty stable in the area, not transient, but I don't know if banks care.

But then I think that this thing where I wait a few years for prices to come down is working so well, why not just wait it out until the houses I want become affordable to me? then, i think i am dreaming, that would be another 30% reduction and we aren't going to go that far down. besides, i'll have 20k less that i spent in rent. . .

and on, and on. . . but if i am jsut going to grab this rental i have to do it, it is a good value and it definitely won't last and it took me all summer to decide which one i want. there are no rentals out there.

are there goign to be more rentals by owner and listed not in complexes soon?

what is everyone predicting for the next year? is it time for renting or buying?

will rentals go down? will asking prices go down for buyers on the sidelines?

in the financial markets i always played by a simple rule: "the trend is your friend" - so - what's the trend?

thanks!

fauve · 08-09-2009, 11:03 PM

The financial markets bottomed out at 99 prices, and I think it's the same for housing. If you can find something you like at 99 prices that you would want to live in for at least 5 years; that coupled with the first time buyer credit (you're a 1st time buyer if you haven't bought in the past 3 years), you should be okay. Look at foreclosures tho. I found short sales a waste of time. Of course if the bank has already named its price on the ss, same difference.

Wild Style · 08-10-2009, 05:58 AM

bocamom

Quote:

But then I think that this thing where I wait a few years for prices to come down is working so well, why not just wait it out until the houses I want become affordable to me? then, i think i am dreaming, that would be another 30% reduction and we aren't going to go that far down. besides, i'll have 20k less that i spent in rent. . .

historically real estate bubbles take a equal amount of time to peak as they do to bottom. This thing started in roughly 1998 and peaked in 2006. You are looking at 2014 for it to bottom. There is nothing that is going to sustain housing prices right now. People are still losing jobs (the data the media put out last weak is a lie, just go to the Bureau of Labor Statistics website and look at table A-12). The home sales increase the media keeps lying about is taking into account the sales banks and courts do when banks buy back the homes. There was a moratorium on home foreclosures. That ended in January and banks started the process over again in Feb. lo and behold the increase in home sales just HAPPENED to have started around February :S. There was a great article about this on NPR, if I can find the audio I will post it up. Eitherway, homes are still to high given local incomes. The forumla is 3 to 3.5 times annual income. So if a income in a given area is say 65,000 on average per family then home prices in that area should be anywhere from 195,000 to 227,500. You can find out a areas average income on shop blocker for example. You also have a HUGE amount of prime and near prime loans resetting starting in September. They will taper off (the reseting) in January (if I remember right) and then pick up again in spring 2010 and this will continue on through 2014 (tappering off in 2013-14). Prime and near prime adjustable rate mortgages are going to make sub prime look like a pixar cartoon. They are far greater in number. Also you have banks not selling TONS of inventory, i.e. they are sitting on them. If they put everything on the market right now, the market will take a nose dive straight into the ground (even more so than it has now).

As for rents, my wife and I just found a three bedroom apartment in a area we really like for close to 1,000 bucks. When do you remember seeing that during the bubble years? The place we are at now is willing to lower our rent by 200 bucks to keep us. Not worth it given it is still much higher than the place we are going to. Go drive around some of these apartment complexes. A lot of them have HUGE vacancies. We see eviction notices and people sneaking out of the place in the middle of the night where we are ALL the time. Pretty said, but expected given today's economic reality. So you can find good rents, they are out there.

If you find a place you want to stay in and not use as a means to get rich in a few years, then by all means by now. As long as the place is within your price range and in a area you like then by all means go for it. Just don't be shocked if your home loses equity. Prices will not see the run up that we saw this last bubble in our life times. Maybe in our kids or grand kids time. Generaly it takes a generation or two before people do dumb stuff again. There was a depression called the long depression in the 1800s and then a generation or two later you have the great depression. My point us, no get rich schemes off of real estate anymore, that day is gone (at least for us).

Sorry the post is so long but there are a lot of factors at play right now. I wish you the best!

P.S.

Will see if I can find the NPR article

and on, and on. . . but if i am jsut going to grab this rental i have to do it, it is a good value and it definitely won't last and it took me all summer to decide which one i want. there are no rentals out there.

are there goign to be more rentals by owner and listed not in complexes soon?

what is everyone predicting for the next year? is it time for renting or buying?

will rentals go down? will asking prices go down for buyers on the sidelines?

in the financial markets i always played by a simple rule: "the trend is your friend" - so - what's the trend?

thanks![/quote]

Raffeer · 08-10-2009, 10:32 AM

After having had no sales for over a year our small community of 63 houses has had 4 sales in the past 10 weeks. One sold by a bank the others regular sales. The prices looked like 2006. Fair for the area and amenities (gated, exterior services and cable in HOA fees).
The bargain train may be coming to an end.

bocamom · 08-10-2009, 11:47 AM

ok, so i still don't know what to do! i have two rental agents who think I am going to enter into a contract, and a third waiting for me to come see a property. do i want the tiny one with the ocean view/breeze but still not a super clean beach but the right school district but it is expensive? do i want the one without an ocean breeze or view on a clean beach with tennis courts?

or do i want square footage and move off the beach?

ack?

i feel guilty if i bale out of this rental as it really is the nicest unit but i can't decide

fauve · 08-10-2009, 12:08 PM

If it were me, I would take the beach rental. To find a comparable good deal to buy that your self-described picky self is satisfied with will take TIME, and your lease is up. Plus, I'm jealous...if it weren't for our 2 dogs and 5 cats (!), we'd have gone for a beach condo. This way, I can live vicariously through you! If you still want to buy, spend the next year looking at a leisurely pace and the right place will turn up. Housing prices aren't going to be moving dramatically in any direction, imo.

Nikki9947 · 08-10-2009, 01:30 PM

Bottom line: If you can afford it, by all means BUY IT! If you can't, DON'T! It really doesn't matter how low housing prices go. If it's still not within your price range it's not worth the hassel. I'm not a fan of streching pennies and I'm big on living within ones means. (Even if something "looks" or "feels" like it's a good deal, that doesn't make it okay to purchase). Good luck!

Wild Style · 08-10-2009, 02:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bocamom

ok, so i still don't know what to do! i have two rental agents who think I am going to enter into a contract, and a third waiting for me to come see a property. do i want the tiny one with the ocean view/breeze but still not a super clean beach but the right school district but it is expensive? do i want the one without an ocean breeze or view on a clean beach with tennis courts?

or do i want square footage and move off the beach?

ack?

i feel guilty if i bale out of this rental as it really is the nicest unit but i can't decide

which one is the area you really like?

bocamom · 08-10-2009, 05:19 PM

I like Highland Beach. But I also like not having to throw out a third of my things

i am a nightmare client. Is weird because I'm usually really decisive.

bocamom · 08-10-2009, 05:21 PM

There was a shortsale of a really nice unit listed on MLS, but it seems like the only way to get in those is to know someone. It just popped up on MLS and there are two bids and the bidding is closed. And I had to get that from realtor I know who lives in the bldg, the listing agent never returned the calls.