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So basically, I know for sure that I want to live in a southern city when I'm older (still in college right now). I really like the hot weather (even Phoenix heat wouldn't bother me as much as Chicago freezing cold), they all seem to be where a lot of economic growth will be (since I'm probably going to be an accountant, its not like that matters anyway since I can basically work anywhere), and THEY ARE AFFORDABLE unlike NYC, Boston and the like. The thing is, they seem to be growing extremely quickly, and I'm wondering if you guys think these cities will become ridiculously expensive to live in, rivaling California and the NE cities soon. I'll be graduating in 3 years (including a masters) so I can probably move down there soon, but I'm wondering if even by then those places will be expensive or if I'm just worrying about that too much. That's my only deterrent from living in the south and I'm wondering if that's a bit unfounded.
Also, is it generally easy to meet new people in the Southern cities or do they normally stick to the groups they've lived with since their childhood (I ask because I know here in the PNW a lot of people stick to their groups and don't mix with new people as easily)?
I don't think they're going to get expensive to the point of Northeast and California cities anytime soon, but cities like Dallas, Austin, and Atlanta are getting closer to the cost of living of cities like Minneapolis, Denver, and Portland.
I don't think anytime in the next 20 years or so, but more likely drift towards the middle. Also it might be a means of then shifting growth to other areas in the South since it seems to be drifting North over time. It depends of the circumstances that made some cities higher cost of living start appearing there which the biggest factor being land. Though in some cases its not as much building out now as infill development and building up denser areas in suburbs where specific areas in suburbs become business centers for work. Also in building out most Southern cities have less physical barriers to building out compared to coastal cities.
Look at regions in terms of no. of high-income jobs vs COL and QOL
Look at where major cos. are HQ'd and where cos. are moving high-income jobs and HQs....Dallas and Houston economically dwarf anywhere else in the generally low-education, low-income "Sun Belt" of SoCA, NV, AZ, GA, FL, rest of TX, etc
Not surprisingly, upscale Dallas and Houston are already no cheaper than upscale SiliconValley (land costs are higher in HighlandPark or RiverOaks than Woodside)....only cost advantage is lack of a 10+% state income tax
But TX has risk that it fails to create many new, valuable cos., so it is heavily dependent on large non-tech employers and energy industry's fortunes for any high-income jobs....and will be in serious trouble if its tax advantages vs CA narrow
At some point the jobs may not keep up with the sprawl thus creating less interest in further and further out housing; when this happens more dense infill will drive house values up - supply and demand. This is already starting to happen a bit
One of the biggest myths in America is that all of the major cities in the South is affordable and cheap. Try going inside the inner loop in Houston. Not as expensive as San Francisco or New York. But it's not that cheap either. I think Houston/Dallas/Atlanta/Charlotte will get to where Chicago is at now. Affordable in most areas but very expensive in the prestigious and very wealthy areas.
Cities become expensive when land becomes sparse. Atlanta, Houston, and Dallas all still have plenty of land to fill in their metropolitan areas. Population density within city limits is a large determinant of how expensive it is to live there. Chicago, San Fran, New York, D.C.......Those places have hundreds of thousands of people crammed into small districts, so of course the value is going to be higher and its going to cost more. You can still find large houses with big yards right outside of Dallas and Atlanta's downtown district. Its not very crammed, so it isn't too expensive to live there. I think its going to be cheap for a much longer time.
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Originally Posted by hsw
Not surprisingly, upscale Dallas and Houston are already no cheaper than upscale SiliconValley (land costs are higher in HighlandPark or RiverOaks than Woodside)....only cost advantage is lack of a 10+% state income tax
No way is a 4000 sf house in Dallas or Houston comparable to the same in SV, even if that house is in River Oaks or Highland Park. Silicon Valley is insanely expensive...when my San Jose in-laws told me their house's assessment, I nearly fainted!
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