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but $10/gallon gas (and it's not a question of if, but when) will blow a huge hole in the exurbs 30-50 miles away from the work centers.
Hybrid and electric cars will be dominant in 10-15 years, so oil isn't important.And mass transit will be more developed
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my beloved Houston will be the first to decline. Too slow to diversify, too resistant to mass transit, too much of a history of celebrating the freedom to do what you want at the expense of having some more order imposed will start to take its toll
I don't think, Houston is more and more diversified each year because it attracts entrepreneurs in many sectors (medical, trading, green energy...).
Mass transit is a problem, but Houston seems to understand that.
Short term, Sun Belt cities will do fine, but $10/gallon gas (and it's not a question of if, but when) will blow a huge hole in the exurbs 30-50 miles away from the work centers. You can already catch more than a whiff of it, neighborhoods that are more than half vacant, with all the problems (looting, squatting, sanitation issues) that go with having a lot of empty houses grouped together for a long length of time.
What is going to and already has happened is work centers are moving further out into the suburbs as well. I think a lot of any future sprawl would be not due to commuting further to work, but that work is moving out as well.
Some of the sun belt will do well. Texas, and the Georgia-to-Virginia stretch of the Southeast I think will do quite well. A few qualifiers: sprawl is one of the biggest potential problems that could undercut this - Raleigh, Charlotte, Atlanta, Houston, Dallas, Austin all have humongous footprints, and fuel costs will be an issue in the future. If those cities could get more on-the-ball with transit options then they'd have a better shot than they already do. Economically, all of them are doing a lot of things well - diverse economies that have an eye towards the future: look at the economies of Austin, Raleigh-Durham, or even (smaller) Huntsville, AL. These cities attract a LOT of highly educated talent, and there's a high level of entrepreneurial activity. Houston and Atlanta are very cosmopolitan; Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham are getting there fast.
Elsewhere in the warm parts of the country, things are more troubled - the situation in Florida and California is historically serious - they will not be climbing out of their current problems quickly or easily, and the damage is serious enough that they aren't ever going to be the same. Economically, what do Phoenix or Las Vegas have to build upon? There are a couple metros in Florida with economies that involve something other than tourists, retirement and house-flipping, but much of the state is in very deep trouble.
As for the rest of the Southern Tier - the Deep South states were largely left out of the boom - Huntsville has carved out quite a niche for itself in some ways, but other than that, the boom was mainly elsewhere. I suppose there's nowhere to go but up.
It may all come down to education, which really, really is a make-or-break thing. Even in the sunbelt, there are differences from state-to-state, and - especially now - developing talent for the future is key, as you can't rely on recruiting it all (or incentivizing some company to move in). This of course means (watch out NC) developing great primary schools, and not just sinking a shrinking pool of money into the universities.
First we must answer whether there will be an "after" to this recession. Everybody talks about U-, V- and W-shaped recoveries, but what about an L-shaped "recovery"? You know, when 2007 remains the high-water mark for multiple decades, if not permanently?
First we must answer whether there will be an "after" to this recession. Everybody talks about U-, V- and W-shaped recoveries, but what about an L-shaped "recovery"? You know, when 2007 remains the high-water mark for multiple decades, if not permanently?
I suspect that Sunbelt growth will continue, but I do think it will slow down. Much of the growth was fueled by young singles and young families who saw the region as a place to find new opportunities. In good times, the risk of leaving one’s roots is sometimes worth taking. When things get bad, people are more likely to cling to the comforts of home.
Right now, huge numbers of young adults are moving in with their parents. These are people who, a decade ago, may have left to seek their happiness in the glamour and promise that was associated with much of the Sunbelt. Today, they are more interested in having the stability that comes with familiar surroundings, longtime friends, and close family ties.
Not too long ago, showing up in a booming metro area would often yield a job in the same day. That’s rarely the case anymore. Job growth in many Sunbelt cities is lagging behind that of many cities in other parts of the country. So not only are jobs not available on a “walk up” basis, but companies which had been increasing their presence in the Sunbelt are no longer doing so. This means that fewer workers are being transferred to Sunbelt cities.
This recession has a long way to go, and even when it’s over, people will be skittish about picking up their lives and moving…anywhere. Ultimately, even in the most economically damaged cities of the Northeast and Midwest the advantages of having someone you can stay with, get a ride from, or lean on for emotional support can be indispensable.
Finally someone speaks the truth. I've had enough of the people on city data that say the Sunbelt is only growing because old people retire there.
Who's been saying that?
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