Georgia population growth slows in 2013 (Atlanta: appointed, foreclosure, condos)

[Airforceguy]

Today the census released their 2013 estimates for state populations. As of July 1, 2013, Georgia is estimated to have 9,996,466 people. I'm pretty sure Georgia has already crossed the 10 million mark by now, but what I find interesting is how much our growth has somewhat slowed since 2012. In 2012 our population growth by 1.3 percent, while this year it only grew 0.8. When compared to our neighbors, Georgia is in the middle of the pack when it comes to growth. I know the economy is a big factor in this slowdown, but I'm fairly confident that Georgia's growth will pick up in the next few years.
Census: North Dakota, South and West adding population fastest

[neil0311]

Originally Posted by Airforceguy

Today the census released their 2013 estimates for state populations. As of July 1, 2013, Georgia is estimated to have 9,996,466 people. I'm pretty sure Georgia has already crossed the 10 million mark by now, but what I find interesting is how much our growth has somewhat slowed since 2012. In 2012 our population growth by 1.3 percent, while this year it only grew 0.8. When compared to our neighbors, Georgia is in the middle of the pack when it comes to growth. I know the economy is a big factor in this slowdown, but I'm fairly confident that Georgia's growth will pick up in the next few years.
Census: North Dakota, South and West adding population fastest

Population growth of 1% annually is still pretty robust, especially when you think about the fact that the economy and jobless numbers for a good part of the state were pretty bad. Georgia has been used to such huge and rapid growth over the last 25 years that a more modest and normal rate of growth seems almost slow by comparison.

I lived in Massachusetts for 15 years, and the state essentially had a static population growth over that time. Many other states lost population or had slow population growth and lost congressional representation over the last 20 years. It's all relative.

[Newsboy]

I was initially disappointed by the slow numbers as well, considering the rebound in both the job and housing markets this year. How could Georgia have added more than 200,000 new residents between July 2010 and July 2012, when things were still pretty bleak, but only 76,000 in a year when our economy finally started growing again? But the past few years have been all about recovery -- restoring lost jobs and absorbing a surplus of undervalued housing. Though we turned that corner in 2013, with big employment gains and an impressive rebound in new home construction, the effects of that economic growth have yet to be realized and of course would not be reflected in an estimate made
made on July 1.

Georgia will be back in the 100,000+ annual growth range by this time next year.

[cwkimbro]

The way I see it... its ok if the growth slows down for a year or two, while those unemployed still catch up with recent job gains.

I sort of expected this too. Many of the really -greeeat- deals on housing, condos, etc... have gone away. Prices are starting to normalize. This is good, because it means there are enough people working again to buy a home and the market is stabilizing. However, it lowers incentives for some new people to move here who might have been taking advantage of incredible prices in previous years.

Now we are in an in between time where the extreme great prices have gone away, but we're still waiting on job gains to catch up and the home building industry is just now starting to get fired back up.

[atler8]

I heard an interesting factoid on population movement the other day that noted that millenials are not picking up & moving in the numbers or percentages that their predecessors did. If that continues into a longterm trend, it could bring about a noticeable alteration in the migratory patterns that we have been accustomed to seeing not only in Georgia but in other states that have long been accustomed to being beneficiaries of interstate migration.
Even if Georgia does climb back up over the 100,000 number in projected growth next year, that will still be a sharp decline from it's long trend of very rapid growth since the 1970's.
As a region, most of the southern states are estimated to be slowing in growth and the latest numbers just released continued that estimated trendline. As a matter of fact places like Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota & Wisconsin are now projected to be growing faster than some of their southern rivals in either absolute numbers or at least in percentages. Who would ever have expected that to be the case? And of course it goes without saying that the booms in tiny North & South Dakota are off of the charts for that region of the country.
But returning to the south in particular, the last time that so many interior southern states, away from the Atlantic seaboard anyway, did so poorly collectively was during the 1980's.

[cwkimbro]

Originally Posted by atler8

I heard an interesting factoid on population movement the other day that noted that millenials are not picking up & moving in the numbers or percentages that their predecessors did.

I don't believe this is a long-term trend, but something that is temporary and mostly caused by lack of economic opportunities and the recession. Most people just out of college move frequently, because a job opportunity gives them the opportunity to. Cut the job opportunities, you can cut the migration numbers as well. Kind of like how many times in the last 5 years we've given people advice to not move to Atlanta without a job in hand...

Other trends of millennials
-Fewer getting married
-Getting married Later
-Not having as many babies
-Not switching jobs as frequently
-More people living with family until a much later age... a sizable amount actually

These are all trends of the whole generation collectively having less opportunities, less money, and facing more short-term uncertainty.

These trends will go away once people have more opportunities, more expendable incomes, and feel more confident about their futures.

[neil0311]

Additionally, the ability for people to sell there homes in state X and move to Georgia has been diminished with home values having decreased over the last 5 years, and many people needing to stay put with negative equity.

[atler8]

Don't overlook the fact that generally speaking area the north fared much better during the recession at keeping housing prices up as compared to sunbelt areas that really floundered and were foreclosure basket cases. The negative equity problem as an issue holding people back has been much more severe in Georgia & Florida & Arizona for example than in New York or Illinois.
As regards the lack of millenial migration, the longer it does hold as a trend, the more it does absolutely impact growth in what we now consider to be the traditional in migration states. As I have noted, the growth estimates in numeric terms & in percentage rates of a number of states in our region are looking not only slower but in some cases very anemic so far this decade. By the end of the decade, even if things improve, the impact will still have been felt as in slower overall growth & fewer seats to be shifted in the House of Representatives. The impact will be multi-faceted & work in a kind of a domino effect.
And as for expectations that the normal is & will always be what we've experienced, the danger is that we don't see the possibility of shifts in trends before they happen & often fail to recognize them even when they are well underway. Nothing is etched in stone as permanent.