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I never said cold weather was the cause. I'm saying there is a correlation, at least in the USA. As for South Africa, I know why that is. There are some people in South Africa who believe the way to "cure" AIDS is to have sex with a virgin, and many of the persons rape children. Sweden, well, there are many reasons many people say Sweden has this problem. Many cite that most of the rapes are committed by immigrants in Sweden. I've also heard some people claim that atheist persons are more likely to commit rape. And as you say, another thing could be how rape is reported.
The alcohol part that you mention, it could explain issues with rape in places like Lincoln,NE(a college city) and Minneapolis,MN(home to Minnesota's largest university).
Yes, that´s true. What for an evil vicious circle.
As to "I never said cold weather was the cause. I'm saying there is a correlation, at least in the USA." I know you were careful not to say that. But what I would like to mention is that even the observed correlation could be spurious if it is caused by a third correlated variable. For example, imagine that alcohol consumption correlates with cold climates and also with rate rate: You will observe a correlation between cold climates and rapes, even if this correlation is actually caused by the alcohol-cold and alcohol-rape correlations.
Cold climate has nothing to do with rape or crime. Here in Canada the native population makes up 3% of the population, but 30% of the prison population. By the same extension, Alaska has the highest percentage of native Americans in the United States.
Cold climate has nothing to do with rape or crime. Here in Canada the native population makes up 3% of the population, but 30% of the prison population. By the same extension, Alaska has the highest percentage of native Americans in the United States.
That might explain Alaska and South Dakota. However, what would explain Michigan? Last time I checked, Michigan doesn't have a large Native American population. By the way, Canada has a higher percentage of Native Americans than the USA does, and Canada has a lower rate of rape than the USA, much lower. Native Americans make up less than 1 percent of the population in the USA, while they actually make up 4 percent of the population in Canada, not 3.
That might explain Alaska and South Dakota. However, what would explain Michigan? Last time I checked, Michigan doesn't have a large Native American population. By the way, Canada has a higher percentage of Native Americans than the USA does, and Canada has a lower rate of rape than the USA, much lower. Native Americans make up less than 1 percent of the population in the USA, while they actually make up 4 percent of the population in Canada, not 3.
Natives are not the only ones causing rapes. Many other factors exist.
There is no such thing as rape in Canada. That was taken out in 1983, and replaced with sexual assault, so not sure how one is able to make the comparison. Nation to nation rape rates are problematic for a variety of reasons, namely differences in reporting rates, and differences in definitions. Sweden apparently has 10 times the rape rate of both countries on paper, but not sure this means much.
Natives are not the only ones causing rapes. Many other factors exist.
There is no such thing as rape in Canada. That was taken out in 1983, and replaced with sexual assault, so not sure how one is able to make the comparison. Nation to nation rape rates are problematic for a variety of reasons, namely differences in reporting rates, and differences in definitions. Sweden apparently has 10 times the rape rate of both countries on paper, but not sure this means much.
The thing is, still, some of the highest rape rates in the USA occur in very cold climates. I've only said it's a correlation, and correlation isn't causation. My big deal is this. What goes along with that cold weather that might spur on a high rate of rape. Consider this. Wisconsin is quite cold in the winter, and it has one of the lowest rates of rape in the nation. Michigan, next door, has one of the highest rates of rape in the nation.
Sexual assault seems rather ambiguous to me. What actually takes place during the assault is the thing to consider. To me, rape is when a person tries to have sex with someone and there is no consent.
Yes, that´s true. What for an evil vicious circle.
As to "I never said cold weather was the cause. I'm saying there is a correlation, at least in the USA." I know you were careful not to say that. But what I would like to mention is that even the observed correlation could be spurious if it is caused by a third correlated variable. For example, imagine that alcohol consumption correlates with cold climates and also with rate rate: You will observe a correlation between cold climates and rapes, even if this correlation is actually caused by the alcohol-cold and alcohol-rape correlations.
Cold----Rape
alcohol
/ \
/ \
Cold Rape
The one thing I've been trying to figure out is what would go along with the cold weather. Alcohol and cold weather, well, I can understand where that can take place. Colorado, Alaska, Wyoming, Delaware, North Dakota, Wisconsin, Montana, Nevada, and New Hampshire are among the heaviest drinking states in the nation. Incidentally, 4 of the heaviest drinking states also have among the highest rates of rape in the nation(Colorado, Alaska, North Dakota, and Montana). New Hampshire ranks 14th in rape rates, and Nevada ranks 15th in rape rates.
I've also noticed some ironies. Wisconsin has a high rate of alcohol consumption, and it has one of the lowest rates of rape in the nation. Wyoming and Delaware rank 32nd and 33rd as far as rape rates go, and they have among the highest rates of alcohol consumption in the nation.
Other ironies not lost on me is this. States with the lowest rates of alcohol consumption: Utah, Kentucky, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kansas, Oklahoma, North Carolina, West Virginia, Alabama, and Ohio.
Oklahoma, Kansas, and Arkansas have among the lowest rates of alcohol consumption in the nation. However, all three have among the highest rates of rape in the nation. Arkansas and Oklahoma have the 4th and 5th highest rape rates in the nation. Arkansas in particular stands out. It doesn't have a particularly cold climate, it doesn't have a large Native American population, and it has one of the lowest rates of alcohol consumption in the nation.
One other thing I've noticed is this. The states with the 10 highest rates of rape in the nation, many also have among the lowest population densities in the nation. Alaska is 3 times bigger than Texas, but has a population smaller than Ft. Worth, TX(46,000 fewer people than Ft. Worth) or Austin,TX(110,000 fewer people than Austin), giving it the lowest population density in the nation.
States with the lowest population densities in order of rank: Alaska, Wyoming, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, New Mexico, Idaho, Nebraska, Nevada, Utah. 6 out of 10 states have the 10 highest rates of rape in the nation. Kansas has the 11th lowest population density in the nation, and the 11th highest rape rate in the nation. Utah ranks 10th in low population density, and ranks 16th in rape rates. Ironically, Wyoming has a markedly lower rate of rape than the rest of these states.
On the other hand, the most crowded states in the nation: New Jersey, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maryland, Delaware, New York, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. Out of these states, 3 out of 10 have the 10 lowest rates of rape in the nation(NJ, NY, and MD). Connecticut, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, and Delaware rank 12th, 16th, 17th, and 18th in terms of the lowest rape rates. Ohio sticks out as having a markedly higher rate of rape. California ranks 11th in population, but has among the lowest rape rates in the nation.
Alot of correlations to consider, but more importantly, what goes along with those correlations.
Less densely populated states are Republican states and dense ones are Democrat states... therefore, Republicans are rapists... I only jest.
It could be the case that people are less likely to report being raped in a densely populated state. Many studies have been done on the differences between rural and urban attitudes. I've lived in both. In a big city people feel much more socially isolated, and thus when they experience something traumatic like rape, they don't tell anyone. In a small town setting where everyone knows everyone's business, people are more likely to report abuse because they have the community behind them.
Less densely populated states are Republican states and dense ones are Democrat states... therefore, Republicans are rapists... I only jest.
It could be the case that people are less likely to report being raped in a densely populated state. Many studies have been done on the differences between rural and urban attitudes. I've lived in both. In a big city people feel much more socially isolated, and thus when they experience something traumatic like rape, they don't tell anyone. In a small town setting where everyone knows everyone's business, people are more likely to report abuse because they have the community behind them.
Yes, and no. On the one hand, being in a community that is small, one could have the backing of that community, so one might be more likely to report that crime. On the other hand, there could be a case of corruption in a small community. The one who committed the rape might know some powerful persons and the victim might not feel comfortable with reporting it due to having to prove one's case.
And the same could be said with densely populated areas. One could feel like "just a number" in a densely populated area, therefore, not reporting the rape. I could also argue that the resources to deal with rape cases might be more plentiful in a city. I would also present that if one were to try and commit rape in a crowded area, such as New Jersey, one might get caught quicker. The way municipalities work in New Jersey, you have the city police, and then the township police. My theory is if it gets reported, the likelihood of getting caught could be higher due to more people spotting the person.
With Alaska and South Dakota, I would surmise that in such a thinly populated area, it might be harder for the police to get to. In Alaska, a woman in one of the bush communities called the police because she got raped. No one returned her call. As a side note, Alaska had the nation's highest murder rate in 1982, 18.5 murders per 100,000. Only Louisiana and Nevada has recorded murder rates higher than that between 1960 and now.
The OP says colder climates mean more crime, but I just came across this article that says climate change (ie. warmer climates) brings more crime... Climate change brings more crime - latimes.com
Quote:
A new study broadens a notion held by the earliest criminologists: Periods of higher temperatures -- on an hour-by-hour or week-to-week basis -- are likely to produce more crime.
The study by Matthew Ranson of Abt Associates, a research and consulting firm in Cambridge, Mass., suggests global warming will trigger more crimes including murders and rapes over the next century, with social costs estimated to run as high as $115 billion.
EVERYTHING is blamed on climate change these days.
The OP says colder climates mean more crime, but I just came across this article that says climate change (ie. warmer climates) brings more crime... Climate change brings more crime - latimes.com
EVERYTHING is blamed on climate change these days.
I never said colder climates mean more crime. I said there was a correlation between places with cold climates and rape rates, at least in the USA. I've also said correlation is not causation. I've also mentioned that cold weather doesn't always stop criminals.
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