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Old 06-14-2015, 04:19 PM
 
Location: Someplace Wonderful
5,177 posts, read 4,788,644 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Larry Caldwell View Post
The minimal estimates were wildly optimistic. Revised estimates put human population at 12 billion by 2100.
Whose estimates are those?

According to Jonathan Last the world population will begin declining by 2100. This is based on current birth rates. Things can change, of course.
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Old 06-14-2015, 04:23 PM
 
Location: Someplace Wonderful
5,177 posts, read 4,788,644 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Larry Caldwell View Post
We're way past the carrying capacity already. Every day species are going extinct and the environment is degrading. What is the current pop? 7.3 billion? Long term, the planet might sustain an advanced society with maybe 1.5 billion people. 100 years from now the only wild animals that will be left will be rats, raccoons and cockroaches.
Way past capacity? For what?

Th major problems are food, water, and energy. Are those problems solvable? Sure!

So why arent we solving them? My money is on lack of interest, indifference, greed, and pure laziness.
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Old 06-14-2015, 08:26 PM
 
Location: Myrtle Creek, Oregon
15,293 posts, read 17,671,176 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chuckmann View Post
Whose estimates are those?

According to Jonathan Last the world population will begin declining by 2100. This is based on current birth rates. Things can change, of course.
The new UN estimates are not nearly so optimistic.

Probabilistic Population Projections - based on the 2012 Revision of the World Population Prospects

Follow the 80% population increase line. Even the median projections don't predict a declining population.

I follow the ag markets. Coarse grain demand (wheat, oats, beans, maize) has been increasing 2% a year for the last 20 years. All indications project that the demand increase will continue. That means we have to double world production in the next 50 years. I don't think we'll make it. Currently only 200 million people are living in starvation conditions, and only 2 million people a year actually starve to death. I can easily see that number increasing by an order of magnitude.
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Old 06-14-2015, 08:33 PM
 
Location: Myrtle Creek, Oregon
15,293 posts, read 17,671,176 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chuckmann View Post
Way past capacity? For what?

Th major problems are food, water, and energy. Are those problems solvable? Sure!

So why arent we solving them? My money is on lack of interest, indifference, greed, and pure laziness.
Way past sustainable capacity. Yes, we can provide for more people if we want to turn the planet into one vast combination factory farm and sewage treatment plant. Machines wear out and break down. We're already running out of phosphate fertilizers, which have to be mined. We aren't using the planet, we are using it up.

Buy mortuary stock. It is going to be the growth industry of the millennium.
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Old 06-14-2015, 08:40 PM
 
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Good question. My uneducated opinion is that 10 billion is going to be too much unless we can find additional energy and water resources. By 'too much' I mean that the majority of peoples quality of living is going to decrease.

If we were to all live like people in 3rd world countries I bet 30 billion would be the max capacity. I think at that number we would be much more affected by disease and starvation which would cause dramatic fluctuations in world population.
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Old 06-14-2015, 08:47 PM
 
1,519 posts, read 1,771,044 times
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When you ask that question you have to consider what kind of people your talking about. If you mean culture creating people with a gift for inventiveness and ingenuity like the people that put a man on the moon and were responsible for all those inventions and great adventurous movements of people to create new civilizations then I would say that one would not have to be worried so much about numbers. But if your talking about people who breed like rabbits today and fill the land with nothing but unproductive people who live off welfare as some whole nations do then I would say that numbers count and we have something to worry about.
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Old 06-14-2015, 10:32 PM
 
Location: Oceania
8,610 posts, read 7,888,561 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wac_432 View Post
Probably never get about 10B. Could likely support up to 20B with modest geoengineering. 50B with extensive geoengineering.

Your definition of "geoengineering" is..........

Where did you arrive at your numbers? Humans can live like cockroaches if need be as here are plenty of places to scurry under. Where do Iraqi soldiers hole up when in the mountains? If China has 1.4B people in their country think of the numbers that could inhabit other more hospitable terrains. The USA is wide open; our population could double or triple easily and probably will after everyone who wants to come here arrives.
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Old 06-14-2015, 10:47 PM
 
Location: Mableton, GA
165 posts, read 169,809 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by antinimby View Post
Is there a point where there is too much people? What is that number? 10 billion? 20 billion? 50 billion? 100 billion?
Depends on how many people the psychopathic bankers, politicians, warmongers and conglomerate leaders will allow. The likes of Bill Gates are pushing for sterilization of underdeveloped (and current developed) nations so I guess it depends on what they decide.

Last edited by J2201987; 06-14-2015 at 10:48 PM.. Reason: add more information
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Old 06-14-2015, 11:30 PM
 
7,723 posts, read 12,614,165 times
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I don't think some of you truly grasp just how enormous the Earth is. It was created to house billions of people and last millions of years. It's not going anywhere and neither are it's resources. Find a new topic to worry about.
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Old 06-15-2015, 03:11 AM
 
19,968 posts, read 30,200,655 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by antinimby View Post
Is there a point where there is too much people? What is that number? 10 billion? 20 billion? 50 billion? 100 billion?
I once heard...you could give one acre of land to every person in the u s and fit in texas


we have plenty of land in the u s

ever been to maine?? 94% trees



the u s ca more than feed ourselves..


the question should be


why oh why do poor countries,,,,keep having more and more kids,,they cant feed??
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