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I really don't think 1. that trump would actually win the republican nomination, or 2. that he would spend his money to mount an independent run. I think he would see that as something like 'throwing good money after bad'. But, if he did, I don't see the House making him the president. He would likely have far fewer popular and electoral votes than any 'other two' candidates. even with the House making the decision, they would be very likely to go with either the popular or the electoral college leader (or both, if the results handed that to them).
Yeah. Politicians wouldn't make Trump the president.
The GOP would rather run Kasich, and they will if they can but it's kind of a long shot. Got better yesterday with a Trump loss.
Latest projection for the 2017 House is 244/191, GOP leading.
They might gag and make Cruz President, but I can't imagine that Clinton will even be considered by any Republican, and I can't imagine that the Republicans will split.
Let us say for the sake of argument that the respective nominees are Clinton & Cruz. And let us further say that both Bernie & Trump opt to run as third party candidates (Bernie on the "Free Everything" party and Trump on the "I'm A Blithering Idiot" party).
Proper forum protocol says we should respond to the scenario set up in the original post. The OP did acknowledge that the scenario was unlikely, but it gets tedious if each person points out why they think the scenario is not going to happen.
In a normal election cycle.. You're right. This isn't normal.
Johnson is already polling at 11%. With little name recognition. There are alot of people out there joining the "none of the above" ranks.
Cruz winning the nomination hurts Johnson.. Trump and Clinton are a godsend for him.
I've said it before.. here's how it can play out and this is not some wild fantasy.. Trump wins the republican nomination. Clinton either gets indicted, or more likely, her underlings get indicted in an October surprise. Either one of those seriously undermines her as a candidate. Even the most diehard Hillary supporters SHOULD have a hard time voting for someone under indictment, because impeachment hearings would start the second she was sworn in.. So, at best there, someone would be voting for her vice president.
Gary Johnson picks up the Hillary voters who won't vote for Trump.. He picks up the republicans who won't vote for Trump.. He picks up alot of middle of the road voters.. Viola.. President Johnson.
It's a long shot at this point.. He'd have to prove himself in the debates and stand out there.. But he has the best shot since Perot, who possibly could have won had he not pulled the drop-out/back-in strategy in '92.
Johnson's flaw right now is name recognition and getting past people who think like you.. That he has no chance, so it's a wasted vote. He should be pushing his name big time right now.
Voting for someone like the Constitution Party.. That only has ballot access in 26 states.. That's a throwaway vote, unless they can get on the ballot in all 50 states, they have no mathematical shot to win.
It is far more likely for the election to be thrown to the House in the event of a Electoral College 269/269 tie, than it is for a 3rd Party candidate to carry a state that leaves nobody with an Electoral College majority.
That being said, even if the GOP loses seats, I believe the Republicans will hold the majority in enough individual state delegations in the House for Cruz to be elected President.
What could happen though is the election of a Democratic Vice President, as a 50-50 split Senate or Democratic majority Senate is a real possibility.
I don't think that this is as complicated as it seems.
Remember, if the House of Representatives decides the election, each STATE gets one vote for president, not each representative. Since there are 33 states with Republican majority and 3 states with a split delegation, the Democrats would be very unlikely to claim the Presidency, even if the Democratic nominee won the popular vote.
The Republican states, for better or worse, would vote for the Republican nominee -- not the disgruntled 3rd party former Republican aspirant -- no matter who the nominee was.
Trump can win the GOP ticket. Its not a big stretch. I think if he wins the ticket then he wins the election.
My bet is that he fails to win the nomination, and Cruz also fails. After a few rounds of voting to make things look good the GOP kingmakes decide to trot out Romney or Ryan or someone else they actually want and the GOP delegates tow the line and elect this new candidate.
Either way the GOP has some serious issues. A large crack has developed. They have thus far pitted the far right candidate they don't want against the populist candidate they don't want and split the angry motivated base into these two camps. They are going to have navigate this very carefully or they will alienate a very large portion of potential voters.
For the Dems Hillary will get the nomination unless something big breaks/leaks about any one of the numerous scandals surrounding her.
Which is good for the Dems because there is no possible way Sanders would get elected as president. Hillary is their only shot.
The Dems are in nearly the same boat as the GOP. They all like to sit back and look on with glee as the GOP apparently self destructs but they should spend more time looking in their own closets.
The coddled voting block that has been taught from birth that they are special and their feelings trump everything have always been a lock vote for the Dem nominee. Now they have turned on their creators and want someone who is as far left as they are. They see that in Sanders. If Sanders doesn't win it then they will scream bloody murder and a large amount of Dem votes will walk. Making the climb for Hillary even harder. Pair that with the tendency of the voting block at large to go with the opposite party during economic woes and it becomes very likely that the GOP will win the presidency, given normal circumstances.
Now with all that...
If Trump get the nomination then he wins the election. I don't care who is on the Dem ticket.
If Cruz gets the GOP nomination and Trump decides to run 3rd party then this very well wind up in the house. I don't know what would happen then. I have a strong feeling that Hillary might get the win even in a GOP controlled house. The Clintons are well connected, will out maneuver both Trump and Cruz, there are plenty of House members from both parties who are middle road and would pick Clinton over Cruz/Trump. I feel that there would be enough republican defections to support Hillary with Trump and Cruz splitting some of the vote.
If Cruz gets the GOP nomination and Trump sits out the I think Hillary can beat him. Especially if she positions herself in the middle.
If the GOP decide to blow up their own party and sideline both Trump and Cruz for some new guy then its gonna get real wild. I dunno why they are indicating this is a good idea. I think they incorrectly assume that most everyone voting Trump/Cruz will come to their senses and support their new guy. I on the other hand think it will galvanize them into creating a serious 3rd party. I think Trump and Cruz supporters both agree that they want no part of a party that would do something like this. No telling who would come out on top of this scenario. I think the more interesting action will come after the election in this scenario.
Trump can win the GOP ticket. Its not a big stretch. I think if he wins the ticket then he wins the election.
My bet is that he fails to win the nomination, and Cruz also fails. After a few rounds of voting to make things look good the GOP kingmakes decide to trot out Romney or Ryan or someone else they actually want and the GOP delegates tow the line and elect this new candidate.
Either way the GOP has some serious issues. A large crack has developed. They have thus far pitted the far right candidate they don't want against the populist candidate they don't want and split the angry motivated base into these two camps. They are going to have navigate this very carefully or they will alienate a very large portion of potential voters.
For the Dems Hillary will get the nomination unless something big breaks/leaks about any one of the numerous scandals surrounding her.
Which is good for the Dems because there is no possible way Sanders would get elected as president. Hillary is their only shot.
The Dems are in nearly the same boat as the GOP. They all like to sit back and look on with glee as the GOP apparently self destructs but they should spend more time looking in their own closets.
The coddled voting block that has been taught from birth that they are special and their feelings trump everything have always been a lock vote for the Dem nominee. Now they have turned on their creators and want someone who is as far left as they are. They see that in Sanders. If Sanders doesn't win it then they will scream bloody murder and a large amount of Dem votes will walk. Making the climb for Hillary even harder. Pair that with the tendency of the voting block at large to go with the opposite party during economic woes and it becomes very likely that the GOP will win the presidency, given normal circumstances.
Now with all that...
If Trump get the nomination then he wins the election. I don't care who is on the Dem ticket.
If Cruz gets the GOP nomination and Trump decides to run 3rd party then this very well wind up in the house. I don't know what would happen then. I have a strong feeling that Hillary might get the win even in a GOP controlled house. The Clintons are well connected, will out maneuver both Trump and Cruz, there are plenty of House members from both parties who are middle road and would pick Clinton over Cruz/Trump. I feel that there would be enough republican defections to support Hillary with Trump and Cruz splitting some of the vote.
If Cruz gets the GOP nomination and Trump sits out the I think Hillary can beat him. Especially if she positions herself in the middle.
If the GOP decide to blow up their own party and sideline both Trump and Cruz for some new guy then its gonna get real wild. I dunno why they are indicating this is a good idea. I think they incorrectly assume that most everyone voting Trump/Cruz will come to their senses and support their new guy. I on the other hand think it will galvanize them into creating a serious 3rd party. I think Trump and Cruz supporters both agree that they want no part of a party that would do something like this. No telling who would come out on top of this scenario. I think the more interesting action will come after the election in this scenario.
Wow. I don't see this at all.
I think the Democrats win this election unless something pretty drastic happens. Right now Sanders outpolls Trump by 17 pts and Clinton outpolls Trump by 11 pts. Those are very big margins. Cruz is closer, but still trails both democrats by a decent number.
As for the a Clinton victory in the House, I don't see that either. Read my earlier post. Each state gets one vote for president, not each representative. The candidate needs to win 26 states, not the majority of votes in the house. The only way to turn that tide would be to somehow convince all of the small states to defect, because in this scenario Wyoming and South Dakota have the same power as Texas and Florida.
Re: Gary Johnson - In an election without non-controversial nominees, as was the case in 2012, someone like him wouldn't stand a chance (I mentioned elsewhere then that the best shot he had was to win his home state of New Mexico, and the contest between Obama and Romney was close enough that just that one relatively small state kept both of the major candidates away from 270 - and the House ended up without 26 state delegations controlled by one of the major parties, and they choose Johnson by default as a compromise.) However, especially if both major parties end up with more "extremist" nominees this time (i.e. Trump for the Republicans, Sanders for the Democrats) I could see Johnson being seen as a more "middle of the road" prospect for the more centrist voters.
Bear in mind that, because the House is gerrymandered heavily in favor of the Republicans (especially the number of states with GOP-leaning maps, which is what counts here since voting is by state), that it's unlikely that either Clinton or Sanders would emerge victorious from a House contest (unless it's between Clinton, Sanders, and Trump - where they could see Clinton as the "least of the evils"). Also, remember that the House is limited to choosing from the candidates with the top three numbers of electoral votes (if there is a tie for last place they can consider all of the tied candidates though).
Another interesting prospect is because the Senate chooses the Vice-President independently of the House's choice for President a prospect of a President of one party and a VP of another is a possibility. (Most likely in the 2016 scenario were that to happen it'd be a Republican or third-party moderate for President and a Democrat for VP. In the Senate contest they're limited to only the top two - excluding ties for last - vote-receivers.)
I think the Democrats win this election unless something pretty drastic happens. Right now Sanders outpolls Trump by 17 pts and Clinton outpolls Trump by 11 pts. Those are very big margins. Cruz is closer, but still trails both democrats by a decent number.
As for the a Clinton victory in the House, I don't see that either. Read my earlier post. Each state gets one vote for president, not each representative. The candidate needs to win 26 states, not the majority of votes in the house. The only way to turn that tide would be to somehow convince all of the small states to defect, because in this scenario Wyoming and South Dakota have the same power as Texas and Florida.
Dems have history going against them, we tend to flip given that the last 8 years were Dem and the current economic situation being the mess it is.
Sanders will never be elected. I just cannot believe that someone with his socialist ideas would get elected in this country. The stuff he says flies against the very foundation of this country. Maybe I am wrong but I hope not. Plus its not very likely he is even going to be on the Dem ticket.
Hillary stands a chance against the right opponent but she has a lot of baggage. a lot.
Polls out a month before the general election mean very little. Polls about hypothetical matchups for the the general election mean absolutely zero. They are worthless.
I know how the house selection process works. What your failing to take into consideration is that we are talking about mostly lifelong politicians. They will make deals and form coalitions inside each state based on what they can get. They don't like Cruz. Trump scares the crap out of them. That would leave Hillary.
The thing about this house vote is that there are not many rules governing it. Whatever rules they adopt could greatly impact the result.
For instance...is it a public roll call or is it a secret vote. They could do either. The secret voting would allow them to escape public backlash and vote how they want.
and its probably gonna be done before we even learn whats going on.
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