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You clearly have no idea about how science works. There is no such thing as 'proof' in science (that is reserved for mathematics and alcohol), just evidence, uncertainty and probability. This is particularly true with stochastic processes such as earthquakes. The scientists that are studying the increase in earth quakes (in OK and elsewhere) are stating that this injection wells are the most likely cause of the increase in earthquakes, with a stated confidence level.
But to follow your logic, what is the 'proof' that fracking is not causing these earth quakes? Can you prove that fracking is safe? (that is a rhetorical question, of course you can't).
Quote:
Originally Posted by Redraven
When "they" become willing to say "There is NO doubt about it, fracking causes earthquakes!" I will be willing to listen to them.
However, at the present time, "they" are very careful to add in terms like "It is quite probable..." and "There is little doubt..." and "It is very likely..." depending on which article you are reading.
Which is to say, "they" don't REALLY KNOW, but if "they" can frighten enough people, "they" will get lots of grant money to study the issue, and in a few years "they" will be ready to make a definitive statement, IF the money holds out.
In the meantime, "they" get lots of free publicity by frightening people.
All though in this specific case, royalties to the mineral rights owner are somewhat irrelevant when the consequences of the drilling are effecting large swaths of the state. I am wondering if the companies profiting from this will ever be held accountable?
Quote:
Originally Posted by thecoalman
That's going to depend on your area, here in PA most of the landowners also own the mineral rights.
You clearly have no idea about how science works. There is no such thing as 'proof' in science (that is reserved for mathematics and alcohol), just evidence, uncertainty and probability. This is particularly true with stochastic processes such as earthquakes. The scientists that are studying the increase in earth quakes (in OK and elsewhere) are stating that this injection wells are the most likely cause of the increase in earthquakes, with a stated confidence level.
But to follow your logic, what is the 'proof' that fracking is not causing these earth quakes? Can you prove that fracking is safe? (that is a rhetorical question, of course you can't).
There IS a difference here.
I am NOT saying that fracking is "safe" (define "safe"), so I do not have to prove it. I also do not have to prove that the earthquakes are not caused by invisible giants dancing the polka!
I am merely saying this is just another doomsayer article, with insufficient proof, designed to frighten the average citizen.
OK, there have been no earthquakes along that particular fault line for over 150 years. could it be that the underground pressures along the fault have had 150 years to build up, and the fault is now starting to slip? Since "they" have no means of putting strain gauges down there, "they" don't know, so they left themselves an "out": "The earthquakes MIGHT be caused by fracking!". "They" carefully neglected to say "But we can't know for sure."
Have you read any science behind this? It is not based simply on correlation, there is large body of scientific evidence that points to injection wells increasing earthquakes (link). The "they" you keep referring to are a several groups of academic and geological survey scientists that have been studying this for years. However even if this relationship is demonstrated at the 99% confidence level (which would be a extremely high confidence level in the scientific realm), there will be people (and industries) that will claim that there is still a 1% chance that injection wells don't cause earthquakes so therefore we shouldn't address it. It is the same ploy that is used with climate change - 97% of scientists are only 95% confident, therefore it probably isn't true.
Again, I will remind you that there is no 'proof' or absolute certainty in science.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Redraven
There IS a difference here.
I am NOT saying that fracking is "safe" (define "safe"), so I do not have to prove it. I also do not have to prove that the earthquakes are not caused by invisible giants dancing the polka!
I am merely saying this is just another doomsayer article, with insufficient proof, designed to frighten the average citizen.
OK, there have been no earthquakes along that particular fault line for over 150 years. could it be that the underground pressures along the fault have had 150 years to build up, and the fault is now starting to slip? Since "they" have no means of putting strain gauges down there, "they" don't know, so they left themselves an "out": "The earthquakes MIGHT be caused by fracking!". "They" carefully neglected to say "But we can't know for sure."
I was being somewhat factious with the numbers. The point being, that even in the face of overwhelming evidence, some will grasp at 1% or 3% or 5% probability and claim 'see they are just guessing, there is no proof". Just like is being done in this thread.
Quote:
Originally Posted by thecoalman
That would not be the claim at all at least by those who know the topic well. Tell us, 97% of what total?
All though in this specific case, royalties to the mineral rights owner are somewhat irrelevant when the consequences of the drilling are effecting large swaths of the state. I am wondering if the companies profiting from this will ever be held accountable?
To go from 2 earthquakes a year, to nearly 600 of magnitude 3 or greater per year, is a HUGE shift. Huge enough that the cause should be fairly obvious to most people. But I do not think that it will be enough to get law suits through any courtroom.
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