The History of America's Future 1584-2069 may predict our future (WWII, war)

[90sman]

Note- I've already posted this in the Politics section and wanted to post it here as well.

Anyway, the concept of the book and their ideas are a bit difficult to detail and explain. It may also take some time to completely understand the author's concepts as well. Also, this book was written in 1991 and released in 1992.

So, I'll try my best.

There are 4 eras within each cycle of a time period, with each era lasting approximately 15-30 years. While every cycle is about 80-100 years long.

The 1st era is called a "High." Highs tends to be a period of steady, economic growth. Where birth rates are high, immigration levels are low and gender roles are highly distinguished. And rates of drug usage is at its lowest. Society overall is very conformist and individuality is discouraged. Strong desire to build and wars may occur but there is little enthusiasm for any wars.

The last two time this cycle happened was after the Civil War in the 1860s lasting until the 1880s and again after WWII in 1945, peaking in the 1950s and ending with the assassination of JFK in 1963.

The 2nd era is titled an Awakening Era. During this time, the generation of babies born during the High protest against the values of the first era of which they were born and raised in. Crime rates, drug usage and immigration increases, while birth rates fall. Emphasis on gender roles lessens their importance and the economy loses becomes increasingly unstable.

This last happened during the 1960s up until the early 80s after JFK was assassinated as the Baby Boomers came of age.

For the 3rd era, this era is called The Unraveling. Crime rates are usually high, gender roles are at its lowest points in society and birth rates are low as well. Society overall cools down from the second era and embraces the new ideals that were created from the second era as well.

This happened from the early 80s, probably when Reagan was elected president to the time of the 9/11 attack.

Now for the 4th era, the era we're currently in and is called "Crisis." Crimes rates fall, which is what is happening in some parts of the country, drug usage declines, immigration falls (Arizona law) and there is economic decline (occurring since 2007/08). And wars are also fought with fury and energy (War on Terrorism). There is increasingly intolerance for risky behavior and actions (Zero tolerance rules and school dress codes/uniform.)


As for generations of people born...

G.Is.-born from 1901-1924, were very civic, many joined children's group while young (Boys scouts, Girls scouts), fought in WWII and the first half of the G.Is. led to the social changes of the 1920s, while the second half of G.Is. led to the increasing conservative and early marriages of the 1940s and 1950s
Silents- born from 1925-1942, grew up in the Great Depression, WWII, came of age in the 1st era during the 50s, most married and had children young. Their women stayed home while their men worked.
Boomers- 1942-1961, liberal, protested against Vietnam War, fought for equal rights for women, delayed marriage and parenthood, many did drugs and had many sexual partners during the 60s and 70s love era
Xers/13ers- 1961-1981, more family centered, are over protective parents, more pessimistic compared to the Boomers
Millenniums- 1981-2001, more like the G.I.s and the Boomers. Liberal, less risk-taking (according to statistics), contributing to falling teenage birth rate (except for 2006-08 increase), small but growing number are abstaining until marriage, more pro-life about abortion, increasingly political
Homelanders- 2001-20??, predicted to be like the Silents in being conservative, cautious and conformist

So, if the past holds true, we are probably at least half way through this 4th era we are in and will enter the 1st era again in the late 2010s to the early 2020s.

What do you guys think?

Read more about it...American Generations - Cycles in U.S. History

[jtur88]

OK. Baseball runs in 24-year cycles:

1876-1900: One professional league, each team had one pitcher..
1900-1924: The Dead Ball era.
1924-1948: Whites only, with lively ball.
1948-1972: Reserve clause, players slaves to owners
1972-1996: High free-agency salaries and big TV revenues.
1996-2020: Wait a minute---nothing changed. I guess the 24 year cycles were just coincidental and imaginary. But I'm sure you can think of something that changed significantly in 1996.

If you're selective enough, and make your margins slightly fuzzy, you can make almost anything you want run fit into cycles.

[Chango]

So is this from The Fourth Turning?

Here's a piece of advice I heard once that is very applicable when trying to decipher generational trends. "History doesn't repeat itself, it rhymes". Very general patterns do seem to be existant, but technological advances, sociological events, flukes and pure chance also go a LONG way to disrupt those patterns. Take such pattern claims for the $.02 they are worth.