Tropical Storm Arthur Forms East of Florida 7/1/14 (2014, city, season) - Hurricanes - - City-Data Forum

Cambium · 06-30-2014, 09:53 PM

First one of season. They upgraded it to a depression. Most likely be a storm tommorow.

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSIONS FORMS EAST OF FLORIDA...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 79.1W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM NNW OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 225 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

Cambium · 06-30-2014, 09:57 PM

tommyFL · 07-01-2014, 12:25 AM

I wouldn't quite call it a tropical storm yet. I'm about 80 miles SW of it right now and it's completely calm.
Radar with projected path and satellite image from yesterday

Cambium · 07-01-2014, 04:23 AM

5am NHC Discussion Update: They are now expecting it to become a Hurricane. (Probably minimal)

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014

...DEPRESSION LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 79.3W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM NNW OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE TO FLAGLER BEACH

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

---------------------

Cambium · 07-01-2014, 04:50 AM

All models have this now.. Lock it in. Now it's a matter of what path it takes and the details of the storm

A look at Latest GFS, Canadian, Euro at Hour 90 and NAM at hr 84. GFS is closest to NJ coast and stays the closest northward.

Time frame is July 3rd in Southeast to July 5th in New England

nei · 07-01-2014, 05:22 AM

will its path be mainly dependent on the strength of the Bermuda high?

Cambium · 07-01-2014, 05:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nei

will its path be mainly dependent on the strength of the Bermuda high?

Lots of factors. That High, the front, the trough.

Lets use the trough for example... Here's WPC's forecasted trough position on Friday the 4th of July In PURPLE.. The storm will ride along the flow of the right axis.

WHAT IF the trough dug down and tilted a little like in BLACK.... the storm goes OTS.
WHAT IF the trough isn't as strong and doesn't come to the coast in RED... the storm is closer to the coast.

Cambium · 07-01-2014, 06:04 AM

Model Intensity. Most are just strong Tropical Storm status. A few into Minimal Hurricane strength.

This is NOT A BIG DEAL STORM... Might be a lot of hype out there due to the boredom weather we been having past couple months.

Rip Currents, Coastal Flooding Maybe, and a nice breeze is it. Maybe couple of weak trees come down near the coast.

I'll stay on top of any changes. NC would be the most watched state with this.

Cambium · 07-01-2014, 09:01 AM

And Arthur is official born. 40mph winds near the center. They have it as a Hurricane on the Outer banks

Cambium · 07-01-2014, 10:32 AM

Even with the closest model to the coast which I believe is the GFS right now. Here's the highest wind gusts it shows for Long Island/CT/NYC area.. 30-35mph gusts. NO BIG DEAL. And thats with the most west track.

Nantucket and MA capes get 35-40mph gusts on next frame. North Carolina outer banks up to 60mph possible