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5Jun18 730pPDT/1030pEDT- Invest 91E (number(91) given to an area of investigation (invest) just for clarity for tracking purposes in East Pacific (E) that was monitored for development) south of Mexico becomes Tropical Depression 2E. Should get a name shortly which would be Aletta. A second storm expected to follow in a couple days right behind it.
6Jun18 evening:
-Aletta formed 6Jun18, see that tread for updates.
-Behind Aletta another system expected to quickly develop just South of Mexico and may threaten Baja region.
-Nothing showing up in models for the Atlantic really (GFS does still try to spin something up from Central America region towards US Gulf coast though for next week as well as the WaveWatchIII (WW3) model but not sure if that's GFS based or not). If something did form, it would most likely be close to land. Reason being is Saharan desert dust layer is strong heading across the Atlantic from NW Africa towards the Caribbean. This dry dusty air prevents hurricanes from forming (they like moist environments as we saw with Alberto how dry air was sucked in limiting strength and rain) but occasionally one can find a small pocket of less dry/dusty air to hide in if stays super small and luck on its side. If this dust makes it to the US mainland it can make for some spectacular sunset images across portions of the US.
Dust model for 11June18:
Satellite earlier this week of NW Africa / Cape Verde Islands region:
9Jun18 2pPT/5pET - Tropical Depression Three-E forms just S of Mexico - expected to quickly develop - likely to be named "Bud" soon - may come up into the Baja region - later could affect the SW / S US with rain chances.
GFS model is still consistent at developing something in the Gulf but the other models not showing much.
From NWS Lake Charles this morning:
Quote:
As we get toward the end of the week into next weekend, the
forecast is still somewhat muddled by divergent solutions on the
handling of tropical energy and moisture emanating out of the
Caribbean and around the Sub-tropical ridge across the Gulf of
Mexico.
The 10/00Z GFS is still an outlier as it forms a closed off
tropical low and moves it into southwest Louisiana on Saturday.
During this set of midnight shifts the GFS has been consistent in
developing something out of the northwest Caribbean and moving it
toward the US Gulf coast, except every 6 hours with a different
run it teases a different location along the Gulf coast.
The other Global models at 10/00Z, including the ECMWF, CMC, and
their ensemble means, are continuing to show more of a typical
tropical wave type feature moving out of the northwest Caribbean
and across the Yucatan then westward across the western Gulf of
Mexico. This guidance has also been mainly consistent over the
past couple of days.
At this point, with the GFS being an outlier, will put more weight
in a blend of the other Global models. In this scenario, as the
wave moves into the western Gulf of Mexico by the weekend, the
forecast area will be on the east side of it, and therefore open
to a surge of moisture that would likely bring a good chance of
showers during that time frame. Stay tuned.
GFS model is still consistent at developing something in the Gulf but the other models not showing much.
From NWS Lake Charles this morning:
I saw a couple people mention on social media that it may be a persistent bug in the GFS code, but these models are programmed differently / or handle certain scenarios better then others so that we can see something coming and not be surprised so the consistency in the GFS showing something forming is definitely intriguing especially when just a few days away. Nice to see the NWS thought on it too, thanks!
GFS model is still consistent at developing something in the Gulf but the other models not showing much.
From NWS Lake Charles this morning:
Funny how the outlier is being so consistent. lol. Again with the 12z just now.
Will other models prove GFS is drunk or will GFS get some credit for once?
Kinda strange because by now (within 7 days) other models would at least have caught on.
----------------------
Edit: Whoa.. Canadian has it now. Actually looking back at previous runs, the Canadian did have a tropical cyclone in the Gulf as well. Hmmmm!
11Jun18 2pEDT Tropical Update NHC went ahead and put a 10-20% chance of development on the system near Central America. Main concern is heavy rain across that region up into the US Gulf coast.
Was just gonna post that.
So GFS came to its senses again and doesnt have a compact system. Will never compete with big boys if they dont figure things out.
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