Atlantic - Florence forms September 1, 2018 (degree, inches, degrees, map)

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by So FL Guy 1289

How good is XTRP usually? If thats accurate, then S. FL will get hammered.

And on second look, Euro seems to want to come down toward FL.

I guess I spoke too soon by looking at the other models.

Xtrp. No idea, never heard of it or paid attention to it to know how it performs but since its the odd one now, it gets ignored

[So FL Guy 1289]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Xtrp. No idea, never heard of it or paid attention to it to know how it performs but since its the odd one now, it gets ignored

Good

[Psychoma]

3Sept18 11pEDT/AST: Estimated winds 70mph(110km/h), moving WNW 14mph(22km/h), pressure 995mb.


NHC is keeping the track near the middle of guidance models for the time being.

[Cambium]

I would of drew in a 3rd track between the 2 to not confuse people but he's just showing the majority of the Euro members and what tracks they show.

https://twitter.com/EdValleeWx/statu...94146371149824

[Cambium]

For those unsure.. The Euro model has the best track record of any model in the world.

There is the operation Euro (regular model which shows an average of all members.

And theres the Euro ensembles which is shown above it shows all the members and their forecasts.

Ensembles are used to confirm the operational but at this point theres too much divergence.

[LKJ1988]

I hope the high builds in stronger and brings the storm toward my area. Would love a nice Cat 1 coming across the state.

[Psychoma]

4Sept18 11pEDT/AST: Estimated winds 100mph(155km/h), moving WNW 12mph(19km/h), pressure 976mb.

Buried in the NHC Discussion update page: "The new NHC forecast is adjusted westward at long range, in line with the
corrected-consensus aids, but don't be surprised if this forecast undergoes some large changes in the next few cycles, given the split in the guidance."

[Cambium]

Congrats Florence, it was 5 yrs since we had a quiet period between July 13 and Sept 3 until you came along

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/st...89379049189376

[Cambium]

Tick Tock the Clock is getting closer.


Here are the latest results of 3 of the main models and the track they have for Florence. Also note the dates on the map. This thing slowed down. Now the 13th/14th only at Carolina Latitude.


GFS: Ignore the pressure, GFS tends to overdo it.




Canadian model similar to GFS but bit further off shore





Euro doesn't recurve it over water and hits South Carolina





And here are all members of the EuroEPS. Quite a few are getting closer to land now. But notice how many different senarios are possible after Day 4

[Mr Bruce]

edit: Never mind. This is basically the exact same image Cambium posted above. Too early