Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Mon 16Aug TD8 becomes Tropical Storm Henri (ahn-REE) this afternoon. As of 8pEDT: About 145miles(230km) SE of Bermuda. Winds 40mph (65km/h), moving SSW at 5mph (7km/h), pressure 1010mb. Has a chance to strengthen more, then shear later in the week should start weakening system as curves back around Bermuda this week. Higher waves / rip-currents(Even if nice and sunny out) for the US coast.
Updates are issued every 3 hours at 2, 5, 8 & 11a/pEDT from NHC here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ (your apps and websites pull their data from there) - Once Watch for Bermuda expires then updates go back to every 6 hours at 5 & 11a/pEDT.
Tuesday 17Aug 2pEDT: About 135miles(215km) SSE of Bermuda. TS winds extend out to 35miles(55km) from center. Winds 60mph (95km/h), moving WSW at 6mph (9km/h), pressure 1000mb.
Tuesday 17Aug 11pEDT: About 160miles(255km) S of Bermuda. TS winds extend out to 70miles(110km) from center. Winds 65mph (100km/h), moving WSW at 8mph (13km/h), pressure 998mb. NHC keeps nudging cone a tad West, but still off the US coast as a Hurricane by this weekend.
Wed 18Aug 11aEDT: About 190miles(310km) SW of Bermuda. TS winds extend out to 80miles(130km) from center. Winds 65mph (100km/h), moving W at 8mph (13km/h), pressure 998mb. Fighting wind shear but staying steady and trying to improve with an overall healthy appearance otherwise. Shear eventually lessens later in week, eventually Hurricane likely.
Future track…Henri expected to turn more North just off the US East coast, moving up between High pressure and approaching Low or small trough. Models disagree on another High moving into upper New England which, depending on timing/strength/etc, either helps turn out to sea, stalls out just offshore, or brings into the New England coast. Waters past MD/NJ get noticeably colder for a tropical system so if did arrive would be weakening system and not moving at incredible speeds like large hurricanes of past that have survived intact that far North. Nova Scotia will also want to keep an eye on storm.
So basically New England: some waves, rip currents and some beach erosion likely/possible; and maybe weakening Cat1 or TS along the coast, or out to sea at end of weekend or early next week. A few models are stronger but this far out in time it’s a “heads up” to stay up to date with forecast in case things change. Possible weather pattern setup for this has brought storms into New England before.
Wed afternoon: with TS Watch for Bermuda discontinued, NHC only updates storm stats, cone map at 5 & 11a/pEDT once more. Afternoon (12z) model runs just in show Euro with barely anything offshore/out to sea, GFS opposite & cane inland.
Wed 18Aug 5pEDT: Winds 70mph (110km/h), moving W at 9mph (15km/h), pressure 995mb. Still battling wind shear. First air recon flights start Thursday. The earlier Euro model was found to be unusable as it didn't start with the correct strength of Henri.
An interesting correlation in this post here showing the stronger storm is short term (now) then the further West it would likely be when up closer to Northeast US, and further East the weaker: https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1428126386829414411
Thurs 19Aug 5aEDT: Winds 70mph (110km/h), moving W at 9mph (15km/h), pressure 995mb. Holding steady. NHC forecast has center turning back towards CT, RI, MA, then clipping Cape Cod as turns back out to sea / Nova Scotia. Shifts left/right in forecast likely in coming days. Not a Sandy (diff Storm type/setup). But a Cat1 to strong Tropical Storm moving slowly along the coast, whether moves over land or not will still bring scattered rain, some wind and beach erosion and some coastal flooding.
Thurs 19Aug 5pEDT: Winds 65mph (100km/h), moving W at 10mph (17km/h), pressure 997mb. Wind shear still hitting it hard but holding itself mostly together. Friday starts anticipated turn North and expected to strengthen into the weekend.
Air recon data from today goes into the models tonight so in the morning we'll see if models change much or not.
Tropical Storm Watch and/or Hurricane Watch go up for portions of New England Friday (time based issued...typically 48hours before TS winds may arrive).
Fri 20Aug 11aEDT: Winds 65mph (100km/h), moving NW at 7mph (11km/h), pressure 996mb. Still wind shear, with center of storm on NW corner of convection(storms). About to turn and accelerate Northward, strengthening while doing so. NYC to Cape Cod landfall is the main model spread. NHC has landfall E edge of Long Island into CT/RI.
Regardless of final track, Storm should be weakening on approach due to colder waters. But still expected to be a strong TS, maybe Cat1 Hurricane. Historically it’s movement speed means TS more likely, can’t rule out Hurricane gust though. Slow movement near/at landfall = prolonged winds = expect widespread power outages and downed trees (even prolonged around just 40mph+\- will cause widespread issues…that wear and tear over time adds up, more so where winds much stronger). Surge will also be present through multiple tide cycles (surge is the rise in water above normal tide levels). Watches will change to Warnings later today (time based).
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
