MAGA: illegal immigration down 67% under Trump....

[Packard fan]

Originally Posted by Jonah K

Better tell that to the folks at Breitbart. Here's what they published in a February 2017 article entitled, "Border Apprehensions Drop After Trump Inauguration"…


And, yesterday, in an article entitled, "Illegal Immigration Fell 67 Percent under Trump, Says Fmr. Border Chief," the folks at Breitbart stated that the accuracy of Aguilar's numbers was unverified…



If one peruses the official CBP data that was released today and does the math, one will find that Aguilar's claims weren't quite accurate. Here is a link to the official CBP numbers…
https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/sw-border-migration

U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) continues to see a sharp decline in the number of individuals apprehended along the Southwest border, as well as a decrease in those found inadmissible at ports of entry on the Southwest border. In March 2017, 16,600 individuals were apprehended or deemed inadmissible, this is a 30% decrease from February 2017, and a 64% decrease from the same month in FY2016.

From YOUR last link, it says the same thing. ^^^

[Listener2307]

Originally Posted by Jonah K

Actually, apprehensions are "seasonal" as well as "cyclical." Generally, apprehensions decrease seasonally during the winter months and increase during the spring months. Throw in the impact of the economic cycle and conditions in the countries of origin and the United States and it's a little premature to give Trump credit for the current seasonal decrease in apprehensions. Moreover, since we're looking at "apprehensions," one should wonder how many folks are not being apprehended. Let's revisit this topic in January 2018 to see the real impact of Trump's policies.

Border apprehensions dropped 74% when compared to last March. March-to-March. 2017 to 2016.
Border apprehensions hit a 17 year low in March.
Border Apprehensions Dropped 74 Percent Over Last March Under Trump | MRCTV

Your attempt at denial is just silly.

[Quick Enough]

Originally Posted by MUTGR

Illegal immigration down 67 percent under Trump: Former commissioner - Washington Times

...no wonder they want to destroy this guy. He's slowing the radical transformation of America into a two bit third world hell hole.

Trump probably stopped Obama's "if they are turned around at the border, they are considered "deported" policy.

That ALONE would drop the numbers DRAMATICALLY.

[Jonah K]

Originally Posted by Packard fan

U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) continues to see a sharp decline in the number of individuals apprehended along the Southwest border, as well as a decrease in those found inadmissible at ports of entry on the Southwest border. In March 2017, 16,600 individuals were apprehended or deemed inadmissible, this is a 30% decrease from February 2017, and a 64% decrease from the same month in FY2016.

From YOUR last link, it says the same thing. ^^^

I pretty much agree with the 64% decrease in "apprehensions/deemed inadmissibles" at the Southwest Border, comparing March 2016 and March 2017. However, the 67% decrease in "apprehensions" that Aguilar claimed and that you mentioned earlier is not supported by the CBP data. Unfortunately, one has to do a little legwork to obtain the monthly disaggregated "apprehension" numbers for 2016 and 2017.

Here are links to the CBP's "Total Illegal Alien Apprehensions by Month" data for FY2000 through FY2016 and the YTD data for FY2017...
https://www.cbp.gov/sites/default/fi...000-FY2016.pdf
https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/sw-border-migration

Considering that Trump has only been in office since January 20, let's credit his administration with the Southwest Border apprehensions for February 2017 and March 2017. Here are the apprehension numbers pulled directly from the official CBP data:

February 2017 -- 18,754
March 2017 -- 12,193
TOTAL -- 30,947

Here's are the corresponding apprehension numbers for 2016 pulled from the official CBP data:

February 2016 -- 26,072
March 2016 -- 33,316
TOTAL -- 59,388

Here's the formula to calculate percentage decreases for reference...

Decrease = Original Number - New Number

Then: divide the decrease by the original number and multiply the answer by 100.

% Decrease = Decrease ÷ Original Number × 100

Now, let's look at the decreases in apprehensions based on the above numbers...

February 2016 vs. February 2017 -- 28.1%
March 2016 vs. March 2017 -- 63.4%
February & March 2016 vs. February & March 2017 -- 47.9%

Now, based on the easily-verifiable numbers and calculations above, it appears that former U.S. Border Patrol and acting Customs and Border Protection commissioner Aguilar is using "alternative facts, numbers, and formulas" to reach his "67% or higher" decrease in apprehensions claim.

[MTAtech]

A) Reduced "apprehensions" could just mean they're doing a better job sneaking in.
B) If not, then we don't need that expensive wall.

[jacktravern]

Originally Posted by MTAtech

A) Reduced "apprehensions" could just mean they're doing a better job sneaking in.
B) If not, then we don't need that expensive wall.

I doubt it. But as an ex-New Yorker myself, I can understand that you are heavily disconnected from the problem. The wall you call EXPENSIVE, I call overdue and necessary.