St. Joseph County Indiana stays blue (Indianapolis, South Bend: how much, home, university)

[ColdAilment]

With over 95% of the vote in, St. Joseph County Indiana remains one of the few democratic and blue strongholds remaining in Indiana.

Joe Biden won in St. Joseph County 51.8% to 46%. The county seat of St. Joseph County is South Bend, with Mishawaka, Granger, Walkerton, New Carlisle and Osceola being the other population centers.

Indiana has moved far to the right over the past 10 years. Trump won Indiana 57% to 40.9%.

Especially when you consider in 2012 Mike Pence won 49.6% of the vote to Democrat Greg's 46%.

Was a little surprised Allen County went so heavily for Trump in 2016 and 2020.

[WestsideMac]

I actually don't find that all too surprising that they went Blue.

1) You have a major college campus in South Bend. Most voters that attend or work for colleges tend to lean Democrat. (I'm also not sure if out of state students who cast votes count towards their home county or the county of their college, which obviously would sway this even more than it might be).

2) While the RV manufacturing has gone down from what it used to be in that area (though based on this article they've seen some of their biggest numbers in the last 40 years https://www.southbendtribune.com/new...de3f08e74.html) there is still a lot of people who worked the production and assembly side of that industry. Again a broad statement here, but most times those who work in more of your manufacturing type jobs tend to vote Democrat.

3) As you pointed out politics for that area have typically trended Democrat already in the past compared to other areas and I don't think that trend will change (2016: 47.5% went for Clinton and 47.2% for Trump). Just look at local politics and Pete Buttigieg. Democrat Mayor of South Bend. I'm sure his many appearances on national news may have some sway on people in St Joseph county. Even if all of the rural areas voted straight Republican overcoming the population of South Bend alone would be pretty tough. So I would imagine how South Bend goes is generally how the whole county goes. I know Mishawaka Mayor is a Republican and obviously Mishawaka is pretty large itself, but would wager there were still plenty of votes for his opponent.

Just a quick glance over the map showed that only Marion County (Indianapolis area), Monroe County (Bloomington area), Tippecanoe County (Lafayette area) and Lake County (Border with Illinois -- Gary, Hammond, Merrillville, Crown Point, etc) went for Biden over Trump. Almost all those areas have in common a big university, heavy manufacturing or history of going Blue including current elected officials. I might have missed another county, those were the ones I quickly saw though and probably the biggest, though not only reasons why St Joe will remain blue along with the other mentioned.

[ColdAilment]

Originally Posted by WestsideMac

I actually don't find that all too surprising that they went Blue.

1) You have a major college campus in South Bend. Most voters that attend or work for colleges tend to lean Democrat. (I'm also not sure if out of state students who cast votes count towards their home county or the county of their college, which obviously would sway this even more than it might be).

2) While the RV manufacturing has gone down from what it used to be in that area (though based on this article they've seen some of their biggest numbers in the last 40 years https://www.southbendtribune.com/new...de3f08e74.html) there is still a lot of people who worked the production and assembly side of that industry. Again a broad statement here, but most times those who work in more of your manufacturing type jobs tend to vote Democrat.

3) As you pointed out politics for that area have typically trended Democrat already in the past compared to other areas and I don't think that trend will change (2016: 47.5% went for Clinton and 47.2% for Trump). Just look at local politics and Pete Buttigieg. Democrat Mayor of South Bend. I'm sure his many appearances on national news may have some sway on people in St Joseph county. Even if all of the rural areas voted straight Republican overcoming the population of South Bend alone would be pretty tough. So I would imagine how South Bend goes is generally how the whole county goes. I know Mishawaka Mayor is a Republican and obviously Mishawaka is pretty large itself, but would wager there were still plenty of votes for his opponent.

Just a quick glance over the map showed that only Marion County (Indianapolis area), Monroe County (Bloomington area), Tippecanoe County (Lafayette area) and Lake County (Border with Illinois -- Gary, Hammond, Merrillville, Crown Point, etc) went for Biden over Trump. Almost all those areas have in common a big university, heavy manufacturing or history of going Blue including current elected officials. I might have missed another county, those were the ones I quickly saw though and probably the biggest, though not only reasons why St Joe will remain blue along with the other mentioned.

RV manufacturing is in neighboring Elkhart County, which went overwhelmingly for Trump. It is true auto workers tend to vote democrat, but RV workers do not enjoy the same pay or benefits as auto workers, turnover is high, and most are overwhelmingly republican.

True, Notre Dame is in South Bend, but it is a small private Catholic University, only 8,500 undergraduates. Compared with Purdue at over 20,000 and IU with around 40,000. South Bend isn't what most people would classify as a college town.

South Bend is not where the population growth in the county is happening, it's mostly in the affluent community of Granger and the more rural areas of Mishawaka. Will be interesting to see how much longer the county remains blue.

I would also attribute the higher African AmericAn population in St. Joseph county as a contributing factor.

[Suesbal]

Notre Dame may be small but it punches above its weight. And it hasn’t been a bastion of right winginess in decades.

[ColdAilment]

Originally Posted by Suesbal

Notre Dame may be small but it punches above its weight. And it hasn’t been a bastion of right winginess in decades.

Newest Supreme Court Justice is university alum, but I would agree with your point.