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Old 11-08-2010, 07:09 AM
 
Location: Wherever women are
19,012 posts, read 29,715,345 times
Reputation: 11309

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Big boy is down to 76 cents in pre-market.

How much lower can this go? I know this bank is terrible junk with toxic debt. Too much debt it stinks. But is there a chance this bank gets liquidated like lehmann and the like? I guess not, coz it has already been nationalized. Some Irish guys said its their national pride, aka too big to fail.

If I load it up at 40 or 50 cents and let it sink for 5 to 7 years, or even 10, can I walk off with retirement money? Buy a boat and spend eternity with Mrs Chamataka????

Or am I sounding like I am stoned? Thoughts, folks. It's much appreciated.
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Old 11-08-2010, 07:18 AM
 
14,247 posts, read 17,919,186 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Antlered Chamataka View Post
Big boy is down to 76 cents in pre-market.

How much lower can this go? I know this bank is terrible junk with toxic debt. Too much debt it stinks. But is there a chance this bank gets liquidated like lehmann and the like? I guess not, coz it has already been nationalized. Some Irish guys said its their national pride, aka too big to fail.

If I load it up at 40 or 50 cents and let it sink for 5 to 7 years, or even 10, can I walk off with retirement money? Buy a boat and spend eternity with Mrs Chamataka????

Or am I sounding like I am stoned? Thoughts, folks. It's much appreciated.
The main risk is the extent to which the Irish government is willing to stiff ordinary shareholders. I wouldn't bet the farm but it might be good for a speculative bet.
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Old 11-08-2010, 08:28 AM
 
2,714 posts, read 4,281,261 times
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No go, I sold all my IRE.
Something is up-- the last few days have been insane drops. I hate when that happens because normally that means someone knows something that we don't.
(And it can't be good)... Also, these drops have been much larger than what would be expected if a hedge fund was bringing it down lower so they could load up.

But this is just my opinion, I could be completely wrong (and often I am), so take it as you will.
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Old 11-08-2010, 03:38 PM
 
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sounds like gambling, not investing
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Old 11-08-2010, 04:14 PM
 
Location: Warwick, RI
5,477 posts, read 6,300,839 times
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Quote:
sounds like gambling, not investing
That's right, might as well buy a loterry ticket. Forget AIB, it's junk right now, and the price reflects it. I wouldn't touch any of banks in the PIIGS except STD. If you want cheap, buy NBG and hold it for 10 years, at least NBG has a solid foundation under it and it will recover if the Greeks are serious about cleaning up their act.
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Old 11-11-2010, 03:45 PM
 
Location: Wherever women are
19,012 posts, read 29,715,345 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dshawg1 View Post
sounds like gambling, not investing
Oh yeah? Just out of curiosity, compadre, what exactly is investing??

You're placing a bet on a certain company that your money will swell over a period of time.

So, please, let's not sit around trading synonyms
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Old 11-12-2010, 07:00 AM
 
14,247 posts, read 17,919,186 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Antlered Chamataka View Post
Oh yeah? Just out of curiosity, compadre, what exactly is investing??

You're placing a bet on a certain company that your money will swell over a period of time.

So, please, let's not sit around trading synonyms
Guy I was at college with paid his way through by betting on horses. Each day he would spend 3 hours working through the previous day's racing results and updating his own records. He was pretty good at it.
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Old 11-12-2010, 07:13 AM
 
3,043 posts, read 7,709,122 times
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Just in case you missed this article: Ireland's Fate Tied to Doomed Banks - WSJ.com

Ive seen AIB down this low before and recover to $10/share (while still nationalized). If Ireland has to go to the IMF which is looking pretty probable, I think it's all over and that's why people are dumping it. But who knows...10 years time could bring a completely different story.
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Old 11-12-2010, 07:19 AM
 
14,247 posts, read 17,919,186 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fauve View Post
Just in case you missed this article: Ireland's Fate Tied to Doomed Banks - WSJ.com

Ive seen AIB down this low before and recover to $10/share (while still nationalized). If Ireland has to go to the IMF which is looking pretty probable, I think it's all over and that's why people are dumping it. But who knows...10 years time could bring a completely different story.
Ireland's economic success (like Iceland) was entirely built on the speculative bubble of the last 15 -20 years. Unlike Greece which had a viable and strong shipping and tourism sector, Ireland's economy was always marginal which is why generation after generation of bright Irishmen were forced to emigrate. With the bursting of the bubble, there is nothing for Ireland to fall back on which leads me to be very pessimistic about their future.
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Old 11-12-2010, 07:28 AM
 
3,043 posts, read 7,709,122 times
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Well, Ireland does have all those mega-corporations that opened offices there in the last decade with their zero corporate tax rate, but I agree with your pessimism....just seen things swing wildly at AIB, even within the last 2 years, so I just feel it's entirely unpredictable.
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