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What is the chance that an ADCOM date would be changed from Tuesday April 8 to Friday April 4?
Wouldn't Monday the 7th be the first choice for an an early ADCOM?
I was in small cap biotech for four years from 2009 until last year. Made lots of money and lost lots of money. The real killer is secondary offerings and reverse splits that come without warning. Also, regardless of the risk/reward, I would avoid holding through any Phase III announcements, because most drugs do not make it to market no matter how much a company touts a drug's prospects.
Agreed on a medical background being an advantage. I don't have a medical background, and while I was able to interpret some of the discussion on conference calls and tried very hard to learn, most of the science jargon is beyond my level of understanding.
Small cap biotech is too heavily manipulated for me to ever want to mess with that again.
I am certainly no “stock wizard” ☺ but I have been doing quite a bit of research lately (Picking Biotech ETFs). It seems like the top biotech ETFs for 2015 are BBH, FBT, IBB, PBE, XBI. Not sure if anyone can back that up with personal experience?? I like to hear some thoughts on those 5. Thanks!
I am certainly no “stock wizard” ☺ but I have been doing quite a bit of research lately (Picking Biotech ETFs). It seems like the top biotech ETFs for 2015 are BBH, FBT, IBB, PBE, XBI. Not sure if anyone can back that up with personal experience?? I like to hear some thoughts on those 5. Thanks!
Fhlc and xlv not included? Are they not biotech concentrated enough? Hmm.
I've done well taking oversized positions in small bio's, well financed, with a high probability of achieving success through a binary event (drug trial or FDA approval). If you're REALLY patient and are REALLY picky, you can find some relatively safe ones with upside potential. DVAX was this year's pick and it passed its critical event a few months back. It had already passed two previous phase III trials so there was a high probability it would pass its third test (passed its final DSMB look). The FDA wanted a re-do to increase the sample size based on the possibility of rare adverse events. So it looked like a pretty safe bet to succeed. I made 81K on the trade.
Note however, that you can lose ALL of your investment if things go badly.
I would add the biotech index (IBB, XBI) just corrected from all-time highs and nobody knows if this is just a correction or if the index is on the verge of retracing all of its gains since 2011. We should know more over the next couple weeks if IBB stays above 285 support.
Last edited by mitchmiller9; 10-03-2015 at 08:23 PM..
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