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I don't believe you have a MBA or 3 undergrad degrees to go with it if you really don't understand what's going on here.
You moved the mark and did so by a ton. If you are going have saved up 150 times your annual need you can go all cash, I still wouldn't but you could. If I saved 15 million and only needed 100k I could go all cash but that would really be foolish too. With such a high multiple of what you need you could have 10-20 years worth of cash and invest 80-90% in equities. 2-2.3mm in equities would still leave you with 300-600k which is 17-35 years worth of your need. Can you point out how many times in history the market has had a negative return for 17-35 years?
We can connect on LinkedIn if I'm supposedly LYING about my education? An MBA isn't a damn MD, not sure why someone would lie about having one.
I haven't moved any marks, I have been consistently saying the same thing for pages and pages. NOW you finally ADMIT that if the guy saved and invested like I proposed, he could totally leave the Stock Market and remain in CDs until he dies. You FINALLY admit this, when I have been saying the same thing verbatim for pages upon pages, the text is right here on this site, all anybody has to do is scroll the hell up and see what I have been saying and ALSO see that you guys claimed the guy was going to run out of freaking money.
You are FDIC Insured up to $250k, you spread your CDs out over several banks, it's simple. And the guy has at least $60,000 PER YEAR to play with and if he follows my strategy for not spending like hell in retirement, the guy shouldn't even need $30,000 per year.
So which one is it now? FIRST it was that the guy runs out of money, now it's that the calculator I'm using can yield whatever I want it to yield lol?
The numbers are right there in front of you....
YES. Models are all about assumptions. You can play with the withdrawal rate, inflation rate, annual return, and time frame and yield whatever you want. Your base assumption is flawed. Do you know anything about predictive modeling?
You still haven't clarified how you'd deal with the first 10 years of withdrawals...thats over $600k that has to be kept in cash or very low interest rates.
a 1.65% inflation adjusted withdrawal is fine using cash instruments whether you can live on the income is another story but drawing down 1.65% and adjusting each year will work over 30 years.
but since most folks need more than 2x that from savings his advice is poor at best and harmful at the other end. cd's are just about a 100% guarantee to a failed retirement at 3 and 4%.
We can connect on LinkedIn if I'm supposedly LYING about my education? An MBA isn't a damn MD, not sure why someone would lie about having one.
I haven't moved any marks, I have been consistently saying the same thing for pages and pages. NOW you finally ADMIT that if the guy saved and invested like I proposed, he could totally leave the Stock Market and remain in CDs until he dies. You FINALLY admit this, when I have been saying the same thing verbatim for pages upon pages, the text is right here on this site, all anybody has to do is scroll the hell up and see what I have been saying and ALSO see that you guys claimed the guy was going to run out of freaking money.
You are just disingenuous as hell, period.
I question your education because you are either not being truthful or you are being woefully ignorant here. I don't need your linked in connection. For someone who dislikes women so much you sure do have a number of online dating profiles and that gives way to your educational background
If you want to reread the entire thread I have already said if you saved some ridiculous amount of money you could go to cash but that too would be bad advice, foolish whatever you want to call it
Quote:
With such a high multiple of what you need you could have 10-20 years worth of cash and invest 80-90% in equities. 2-2.3mm in equities would still leave you with 300-600k which is 17-35 years worth of your need. Can you point out how many times in history the market has had a negative return for 17-35 years?
Just because someone could do something doesn't mean it's good advice, you failed to address the above because it would make you fall on your face or admit your error
YES. Models are all about assumptions. You can play with the withdrawal rate, inflation rate, annual return, and time frame and yield whatever you want. Your base assumption is flawed. Do you know anything about predictive modeling?
You still haven't clarified how you'd deal with the first 10 years of withdrawals...thats over $600k that has to be kept in cash or very low interest rates.
So my calculator is playing with "assumptions" but the calculators you guys use aren't? What in the hell? And what do you mean I haven't clarified anything, 40 years of withdrawals are right there in front of you with my calculation based on the max a guy can get per year with the savings/retirement, then you would add in his Social Security monthly income.
But again, this is based on $60k, people like ME who don't spend like hell will never spend $60,000 every freaking year like that. On average, you will be talking no more than $30k for guys like me, which makes the money go even further.
You guys are backpedaling like hell, first you claimed my withdrawal procedure was flawed and the guy would run out of money, he clearly DOESN'T. Now you are saying the calculator is flawed lol. Low Expectations is throwing out personal attacks saying I have a made up profile and didn't really acquire the degrees I said I did (which have nothing to do with this thread, that's something from 4 months ago we discussed so why he's bringing that up I have no idea).
thanks to the research of michael kitces we know eaxcly what mathamatically a portfolio needs to remain solvent at 4% inflation adjusted withdrawals for 30 years ..
it needs to maintain an average return over the first 15 years of a 30 year period of at least 2% real return.,
every failure in the trinity study has had a common denominator and the above is it.
so far in modern times the only group to be on a collision course is the hypothetical y2k retiree. those that retired the year of the peak had less than 2% real returns on stocks and bonds. we won't even talk about the negative real returns on cd's.
I question your education because you are either not being truthful or you are being woefully ignorant here. I don't need your linked in connection. For someone who dislikes women so much you sure do have a number of online dating profiles and that gives way to your educational background
If you want to reread the entire thread I have already said if you saved some ridiculous amount of money you could go to cash but that too would be bad advice, foolish whatever you want to call it
Just because someone could do something doesn't mean it's good advice, you failed to address the above because it would make you fall on your face or admit your error
Lol, now you are Googling me? Really? You found me on a Dating Website buddy? Was it OkCupid, or was it Plenty of Fish? I'm on both of them! What in the HELL does that have to do with this discussion, you are reaching there aren't you lol?
And please dude, don't even try to change your stance. You have clearly, numerous times said, it was bad advice because the guy would run out of money. Now you are backpedaling and trying to throw worthless pity personal attacks about me being on dating websites and hating women lol! You know when a guy has LOST a debate when he starts throwing personal attacks like that and Googling you to try and DOX you.
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mathjak107
a 1.65% inflation adjusted withdrawal is fine using cash instruments whether you can live on the income is another story but drawing down 1.65% and adjusting each year will work over 30 years.
but since most folks need more than 2x that from savings his advice is poor at best and harmful at the other end. cd's are just about a 100% guarantee to a failed retirement at 3 and 4%.
Oh man lol! We have went from, "JoTucker you are insane, young, dumb and giving out totally bad advice!" To..."Well, JoTucker you were right all along!"
Amazing lol! And listen mathjak, people like me and who live like me, we don't need to spend $100,000 per year during retirement like you guys want to do. Like I said, $30k per year on average is what we are going to do and we will ENJOY our damn lives just as much (or probably more) than you guys spending $100k per year.
no you just keep trying to prove a point that we already said is possible . it is unrealistic for the masses to live on less than 2% withdrawals unless their portfolios are fun money.
for anyone planning around the proverbial 4% your advice is harmful.
not once did you ever qualify your advice that it should only apply where you need the smallest withdrawals less than 2%. not once !
if i needed no withdrwals and had a pension should i give retirement advice to just bury it in the yard ? it would be just as useless as advice if i didn't say i wasn't drawing off it except for some extra chump change..
Amazing lol! And listen mathjak, people like me and who live like me, we don't need to spend $100,000 per year during retirement like you guys want to do. Like I said, $30k per year on average is what we are going to do and we will ENJOY our damn lives just as much (or probably more) than you guys spending $100k per year.
Thats because the majority of people need more than a 1.5% withdrawal rate. Why don't you get this? It might theoretically work for you (although I doubt you will be singing the same tune at 60, especially if ever decide to live life with another person other than yourself) but does not work for the vast majority of people who have a substancially higher household income when they are working.
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