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A 75% win percentage would normally be ridiculously good, but then, win percentages alone don't mean much without also knowing what the average profit vs. average loss is. E.g., if you're quickly taking 1% profits but not selling until you're down 5%, then that 75% win percentage isn't very impressive at all. In fact, you're probably losing money over the long run.
OTOH, a trader could have just a 40% win percentage and be doing very well if he's letting his winners run and cutting his losses relatively short.
A 75% win percentage would normally be ridiculously good, but then, win percentages alone don't mean much without also knowing what the average profit vs. average loss is. E.g., if you're quickly taking 1% profits but not selling until you're down 5%, then that 75% win percentage isn't very impressive at all. In fact, you're probably losing money over the long run.
OTOH, a trader could have just a 40% win percentage and be doing very well if he's letting his winners run and cutting his losses relatively short.
You are getting into risk management issues not getting calls right. Making a correct call 75% of the time would be outstanding
You are getting into risk management issues not getting calls right. Making a correct call 75% of the time would be outstanding
My point is that "correct call %" means little without taking risk management into account. They're both equally important in determining success or failure. To look at one without the other is near meaningless.
My point is that "correct call %" means little without taking risk management into account. They're both equally important in determining success or failure. To look at one without the other is near meaningless.
Making a correct call 75% is outstanding no matter what the risk management is. Financial results are a different animal but getting calls right 75% is highly abnormal
Making a correct call 75% is outstanding no matter what the risk management is. Financial results are a different animal but getting calls right 75% is highly abnormal
Without risk management it doesn't mean much, it's just a ticking clock. One bad trade can wipe out all the gains from 20 good trades, so without risk management, it's just a matter of time before the trader gets burned.
Without risk management it doesn't mean much, it's just a ticking clock. One bad trade can wipe out all the gains from 20 good trades, so without risk management, it's just a matter of time before the trader gets burned.
You can be a great picker with crappy risk management. Doesn't mean you aren't a great picker, getting calls right 75% is outstanding I'm pretty sure I was clear with my point originally
Making a correct call 75% is outstanding no matter what the risk management is. Financial results are a different animal but getting calls right 75% is highly abnormal
In that case, my call is that SPY will increase .2% from where it is now. I will bail out of the trade only when SPY drops 50%. I'll repeat this several times. Let's see what my winning call percentage ends up being...
In that case, my call is that SPY will increase .2% from where it is now. I will bail out of the trade only when SPY drops 50%. I'll repeat this several times. Let's see what my winning call percentage ends up being...
I'm really not sure why you are struggling with what I said. If your call on the s&p is right 75% of the time you ability to make calls is outstanding
I'm really not sure why you are struggling with what I said. If your call on the s&p is right 75% of the time you ability to make calls is outstanding
Great, and using my methodology above I expect my call percentage to be much BETTER than 75%, which apparently means my ability to make calls is nothing short of genius.
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