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And temporary is exactly what this current pricing is. There will come a time within the next 12-24 months when the spikes in price will be coming fast and furious. Not coincidentally, that will also set off the next recession in the US (above some current $/bbl) price.
The problem with retail investors is we been feeding news from the big guys who often say either way that serve their purpose. The last time was 7,8 months ago when GS said oil will go down to $40 while it at $42 at the moment then all the sudden it ran up from March to May and hit $60.
So, i think their game is to cover their short position therefore, has to throw around gloom and doom for retail investors to sell while they covering .
These days, they also scare investors such interest rate hike will kill the economy but the market is up last couple weeks knowing the Fed going to hike in Dec.
Personally, i think oil will head higher next year from this point. You see some consolidation last couple days in oil price. I also think the economy/ stock will be much better next year in anticipating the GOP will take the presidency with a shift in policy favor business expansion.
I think oil is a monster buy here in the low to mid 40's. Similar to when it hit $35 after the 08 crash.
I agree with the poster that said everything has to go right for it stay where it is. But if one or two things go wrong (i.e. saudi's cutting production, or war), it goes right back to $60-80 or $100.
The second they stop shale players will step in to fill their space.
They all will go bankrupt with massive deficits(Venezuela, Saudi Arabia..).
I would say it would be very difficult for oil to go up than down.
$26 dip formation seems about right.
Oil may spend 2016 between $30-$40.
Except as oil stays very low many of the players will be getting out, bought up, or out of business and completely removed from the space. So you most likely won't have as many players in the field in the near future.
The second they stop shale players will step in to fill their space.
They all will go bankrupt with massive deficits(Venezuela, Saudi Arabia..).
I would say it would be very difficult for oil to go up than down.
$26 dip formation seems about right.
Oil may spend 2016 between $30-$40.
I don't forsee any improvement until 2017. 2016 will remain soft. There's been too much stuff stacked. Even if the excess demand was snapped up tomorrow, it would take six months to spin everything back up.
Now, if we get a full on shooting war in the mid-east, all bets are off. Especially if Russia and Turkey get hot.
Except as oil stays very low many of the players will be getting out, bought up, or out of business and completely removed from the space. So you most likely won't have as many players in the field in the near future.
Some consolidation would actually be nice.
Shale has been driven by many small drillers and that's not good.
Prices are squeezing Frack Shale out, now. Canada Tar Sands will get knocked down, as well.
THEN, things could float back up. Have played in this for some years -- my early guess is price is not coming back before well into 2017. By then the High-Cost producers will have died off.
Real Wild Card is if some group of folks (US, or China, or . . . ) were smart enough to head Off of Oil.
The collapse that would follow from some buyers quitting the addiction -- market would never recover.
Remember, the Stone Age did not end because we ran out of Stones.
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