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Given the current fundamentals I am looking for Oil in the 30's but easily could bottom in the 20's. Given there is not a supply disruption then yes lower
part of why i like the put etfs, if markets go down i get some profit still, if it goes up, rest of portfolio is up. sure it has a drag during bull markets, but helps in bear. etfs just so i dont have to do the puts myself
I think we may get both options. Short-term it will depend on OPEC again, not as much as it used to be though. If OPEC keeps quotes (widely expected) the price goes down, if they cut even a little — the price goes up. The meeting is scheduled December 4th, let's see what happens. In the long term although I doubt OPEC really still can significantly manipulate the prices unless they come to agreement with USA and Russia, which is not going to happen just yet. In 24 months? I think it's possible, and that may bring oil up to 80, but definitely not 100. It also depends on consumption, if China keeps slowing, who would buy all the extra barrels
Here is the thing on oil. Everything has to go perfect to keep oil at current levels or go lower. Only one terrorist attack in the right place or the Saudi cut in production ect and oil will spike. It only takes one thing for oil to spike everything has to stay perfect for oil to stay low. Odds are oil will go higher sooner than later, and if it does stay perfect it can not for long I.E. years.
i bought exxon again because in the end it my not matter where oil goes with them .
if oil falls there will be lots of credit lines pulled on good smaller company's making them easy take over targets for exxon . if oil goes up they make money because that is their business .
I am like 3k down in oil, but I am holding, i am not sure about only 80. Oil is THE commodity that fuels the world, so cheap oil is only temporary.
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and you may find any quotes of a professional financial gurus to confirm any of theories.
