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Old 01-18-2017, 03:34 AM
 
106,573 posts, read 108,713,667 times
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the s&p averaged 10.20% cagr the last 30 years . that includes the lost decade .
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Old 01-18-2017, 03:21 PM
 
3,271 posts, read 2,187,634 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gunslinger256 View Post
I turned $50k into $500k and then lost nearly all of it including my initial investment all in about 1 year.
The term for this is ergodicity.
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Old 01-25-2017, 10:01 AM
 
Location: Chicago
3,918 posts, read 6,829,377 times
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I was up 110% or so in my IRA over the course of 2.5-3 years. I was certainly lucky to do that. Bought only 5 stocks and held until I saw a profit. Right now I am still up on that money and continuing to invest in specific stocks which I watch carefully. You do need to be a bit lucky, well informed, and very patient.

Bought TGT after the hacking scandal. Waited and saw a 74% jump in the stock price over the next year.

Then pulled out and bought NFLX. That too saw another 24% jump in the stock.

Pulled out NFLX and bought COH. That was the worst play I made. Ended up going up and down and sold it for only a $7 profit. I knew nothing of retail but heard good things about Coach so went for it. At least I didn't lose money.

After selling COH I bought NFLX again. Once again NFLX came through and I saw an 11% increase in 5 days. This was my luckiest play by far. This happend when people were suspecting that Disney would purchase them.

After selling NFLX a second time I bought COP and held for a very very long time. That was held for almost a year after I sold it for only a 8% rise. Ended up buying FB with that money.

Since buying FB I am not up or down on the stock. It went wayyyy down in the past couple of months but has since returned. I know the industry pretty good and will continue to hold because I see it doing good things.

Overall, my experiences above are not common and the plays I made were decided on through research. One thing I learned is do not invest in something that you don't use or aren't familiar with, in my example Coach. I'm a guy who knows nothing of retail, specifically women's fashion.
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Old 01-25-2017, 02:51 PM
 
425 posts, read 646,911 times
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There is something called idiosyncratic risk inherent to all stocks...to beat that risk consistently over time is almost impossible. I'm not saying it can't be done but it's hard. I know people who have been able to hit it 2 or 3 times in a row but beyond that, something happens and they end up taking a bloodbath.
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Old 01-25-2017, 03:32 PM
JRR
 
Location: Middle Tennessee
8,159 posts, read 5,651,590 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hken View Post
There is something called idiosyncratic risk inherent to all stocks...to beat that risk consistently over time is almost impossible. I'm not saying it can't be done but it's hard. I know people who have been able to hit it 2 or 3 times in a row but beyond that, something happens and they end up taking a bloodbath.
Isn't the idea of diversification to reduce idiosyncratic risk?
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Old 01-25-2017, 04:17 PM
 
3,773 posts, read 5,321,473 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
Closing out a position each night and buying back the same investment or another one in the morning is no different than just keeping the money in play.
Closing out a position means paying a broker's fee to sell and buying back the next morning also incurs a broker's fee. Thus you have less money than if you had simply kept your money in play.

How are the two options no different?
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Old 01-25-2017, 05:05 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles
4,490 posts, read 3,925,838 times
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My best buy was Altria at $ 24 in 2011. It pays a 5% dividend and has gone to $ 70. I own a few thousand shares.
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Old 01-25-2017, 06:46 PM
 
26,191 posts, read 21,568,036 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Teak View Post
Closing out a position means paying a broker's fee to sell and buying back the next morning also incurs a broker's fee. Thus you have less money than if you had simply kept your money in play.

How are the two options no different?
Did you not understand the point of his post? It was discussing paper losses are losses. Far too many says it's only on paper so it doesn't matter but that's simply untrue
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Old 01-26-2017, 02:55 AM
 
106,573 posts, read 108,713,667 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Teak View Post
Closing out a position means paying a broker's fee to sell and buying back the next morning also incurs a broker's fee. Thus you have less money than if you had simply kept your money in play.

How are the two options no different?
we are talking about the term "it is only a paper loss " if you don't sell which is false . . we are not discussing taxes or trading fees at all .

your net worth is what it is at any point in time whether you close a position at night and rebuy in the morning , vs keeping the money in play over night . in that respect there is no such thing as it is only a paper loss . THEY ARE THE SAME THING whether you sell or not . only taxes and fees may make a difference .

in fact with fidelity i can sell certain etf's and buy another one commission free if you want to get technical . if it is my retirement money i have no fees and no taxes on the trade . but that is not what is being discussed regardless .

Last edited by mathjak107; 01-26-2017 at 03:00 AM.. Reason: ,
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Old 01-26-2017, 03:01 AM
 
106,573 posts, read 108,713,667 times
Reputation: 80058
Quote:
Originally Posted by Teak View Post
Closing out a position means paying a broker's fee to sell and buying back the next morning also incurs a broker's fee. Thus you have less money than if you had simply kept your money in play.

How are the two options no different?


Quote:
Originally Posted by Lowexpectations View Post
Did you not understand the point of his post? It was discussing paper losses are losses. Far too many says it's only on paper so it doesn't matter but that's simply untrue
you know the drill , don't read what is posted and just look for an exception somewhere you can punch holes in . even if it doesn't apply to the post .

Last edited by mathjak107; 01-26-2017 at 03:26 AM..
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