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The 90s were ... For the first time since the Jackson (that would be Andrew Jackson) administration, the federal government ran a surplus. ...
Actually, there was no period - year-to-year ( during the 90's ) when the national debt didn't increase.
It is only after 'adding-in' the Social Security "Surplus" that "From an accounting standpoint," the books were in the black. Either the SS Surplus was supposed to be saved - "for later" or it was spent in real time.
The US Treasury publishes total US indebtedness once every week. Year-to-year comparisons are easy.
Reagan, Bush I & II all showed lower deficits than they really ran up and Clinton showed small surpluses when there was actually still a deficit.
- = - = - = - - = - = - = - - = - = - = - - = - = - = -
Three candidates for an an accounting opening face a challenge question:
The interviewer asks: " What is two plus two? "
Candidate one says "four."
Candidate two answers with a question: "Do you mean two plus negative two, positive two plus positive two?" There are many possibilities ...
Candidate three leans back in their chair and asks: "What do you want it to be?"
Many people say if you look at the internet bubble in terms of what the internet has grown into it wasn't necessarily a bubble at all but prices grew faster than the internet itself grew but look at the valuations of Amazon and Google and Netflix and Apple and others today.
Two of the companies you mentioned, Google and Netflix, went public after the first bubble had collapsed.
Apple wasn't a cell phone maker back then. About 90 percent of their stock price gains have occurred after the introduction of the iphone.
Most of the companies from the first wave disappeared. There were probably about 1000 publicly listed stocks in the telecom and internet sectors. It's now only about 30 percent of that including the new companies that have listed since.
Two of the companies you mentioned, Google and Netflix, went public after the first bubble had collapsed.
Apple wasn't a cell phone maker back then. About 90 percent of their stock price gains have occurred after the introduction of the iphone.
Most of the companies from the first wave disappeared. There were probably about 1000 publicly listed stocks in the telecom and internet sectors. It's now only about 30 percent of that including the new companies that have listed since.
I know my point however was that the internet as a whole grew much larger than the "bubble" of back then, obviously there was a shift in the companies involved but the internet continued to and has continued to grow larger than the highest point of the bubble, it just took another 17 years.
I know my point however was that the internet as a whole grew much larger than the "bubble" of back then, obviously there was a shift in the companies involved but the internet continued to and has continued to grow larger than the highest point of the bubble, it just took another 17 years.
very true but there was also roadkill along the way. MySpace, Netscape, CMGI, ICGE, Idealabs, etc. etc.
So does BitCoin survive and thrive after the inevitable crash, does it survive and become marginalized or does it become roadkill?
Were many people calling it a bubble when tech stocks were going through the roof?
No, they were not. In the late 90s, everyone and their pet turtle was making money in the stock market. America was going to have a mass upper-class, or so we were told.
Then, of course, everything nosedived. At least it was fun while it lasted.
My take on the 90's bubble is that it was a huge misunderstanding of the true demand that existed for software and communication infrastructure caused by the Y2K problem. Late 90's saw an unprecedented demand for upgrades to hardware and systems to mitigate the pending disaster that was Y2K (hell the SEC even mandated 10-K disclosures about a firm's weaknesses and plans to remediate). Firms took the opportunity to do overall upgrades and incorporate newer internet technologies. There was an imbalance where demand exceeded supply.
Once all that demand subsided when Y2K came and went, there was an imbalance the other way. The music stopped and lots of companies found they didn't have a chair to sit in.
I know my point however was that the internet as a whole grew much larger than the "bubble" of back then, obviously there was a shift in the companies involved but the internet continued to and has continued to grow larger than the highest point of the bubble, it just took another 17 years.
Regardless, it's still been a poor investment. Look at the Nasdaq Composite, Fidelity's Select Electronics sector fund, Jacob Internet Fund, etc. All have done worse than the overall US market if you bought them at the wrong time. All of the collective growth, so far at least, has not made up for the excessive prices of the day.
I don't think that is correct at all. Almost any trend has contrarians. John Paulson made billions betting on a housing crash.
Bitcoin is basically the fastest climbing investment in history, and it is based entirely on mathematical formulas. It's very easy to call it a bubble.
I think a lot of people perceive a bubble might be forming, but they are trying to get in and out in time to make money. If you avoid all speculative investment you are very unlikely to keep up with inflation.
Yes. No $hit. Every trade has contrarians. Everyone knows that. You totally ignored where I said MOST. There was probably 1 in 100 at most who called the housing crash. Probably 9 of 10 are calling for a bitcoin crash.
Bitcoin is like baseball cards, it has "high values" among narrowly defined demographics. To some, bitcoins have unlimited values; to many others, bitcoins have no value.
Were many people calling it a bubble when tech stocks were going through the roof? I'm asking because everyone is calling bitcoin a bubble, but usually bubbles are when most people don't see it coming or there would be no bubble.
Lots and lots of people were. It's not that hard to spot a bubble, nor to predict it will burst. It is VERY hard to predict it precisely enough that it's useful.
First sentence they teach you if you want to play with investments: The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
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