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as of yesterdays close , adjusted for inflation nasdaq now went no where in 18 years .
which is why i always say " it does not matter how many up years we have . all that matters is that down year and where you are when the smoke clears , then it is only about how long it takes to get back on an inflation adjusted basis .
we spend 80% of the time somewhere between the last low and last high . those nice juicy balances we all look at in the bull eventually level out .
Awesome resource, thanks for posting. I liked the graphs you posted the other day as well on different portfolio performance over time. Nice to find a forum where I am actually learning something new.
i am a facts kind of guy . i hate bull . the numbers merely reflect what they do . some read in to the numbers far to deep trying to find fault via valuations , the moon , the stars . but it is far simpler then that .
the numbers say the first time we saw these levels was 2000 . it didn't have to be 2000 but as of yesterday that is just what it was .
I don’t think it’s cherry picking either. My daughter works in high tech or just tech, I told her to beef her emergency savings. Not just 6 months but longer. You never know.
Last edited by NewbieHere; 11-20-2018 at 12:31 PM..
I have two friends that were in final rounds of interviews at two major tech companies here in NYC. They just got word, that the positions are now on hold. Not sure if this is related, but... bummer.
I have two friends that were in final rounds of interviews at two major tech companies here in NYC. They just got word, that the positions are now on hold. Not sure if this is related, but... bummer.
That’s better than get hired and get laid off later. I was worried that when my kid graduated she would be able to find a job. Luckily she did.
The annual rate of return from the base low in 12/31/94 is 9.81%, which is well above the official and the actual rates of inflation. Even if one uses the current value of the Nasdaq at the linear regression line over that period, the compound annual return would still be 8.36% through three bubbles and two bear markets.
The annual rate of return from the base low in 12/31/94 is 9.81%, which is well above the official and the actual rates of inflation. Even if one uses the current value of the Nasdaq at the linear regression line over that period, the compound annual return would still be 8.36% through three bubbles and two bear markets.
The 90s was the best time for returns, I remember people were complaining if they didn’t get 30% return, but after 2000, we be lucky if we get 7%.
The annual rate of return from the base low in 12/31/94 is 9.81%, which is well above the official and the actual rates of inflation. Even if one uses the current value of the Nasdaq at the linear regression line over that period, the compound annual return would still be 8.36% through three bubbles and two bear markets.
all the index's over the long term seem to average themselves out to within 2% or so over the very long term .
but to investors it can mean little .
what happens early on when you have little money accumulated yet is peanuts in effect compared to what happens say 30 years later when fuel tanks are full.
we are not like the index's . we are weighted by how much we have invested and when ,. like i say , in my early years a 7% drop represented a few months of 401k contributions . today a 7% drop represents 9 years at catch up . same applies on the up side . 1987 to 2003 saw incredible gains . 17 years of almost 14% .
big deal . i hardly had much money invested yet in comparison . so what index's show likely has little meaning to you over the long term. each one of us will have our own personal return on our exact sum and it is very time sensitive .
it becomes even more time sensitive in retirement when spending down .. many times you win by not losing as much . the last 10 years the simple 25% equities permanent portfolio beat 60/40 because it hardly had to see much in gains to recover from the down turn .
going back to 2000 if that was your heavy weighted time frame , once again the permanent portfolio , the turtle won the race as this time it surpassed 100% equities . .
so time frames are very sensitive to when we have those full fuel tanks .
it is rare someone will sell out and catch the high . 80% of the time our balance will be between the last low and the last high . that being the case many portfolio's that are defensive can take a straighter path to that same mid point without all the peaks and valleys .
Last edited by mathjak107; 11-20-2018 at 01:55 PM..
Read this today in Gizmodo article about NASDAQ falling
The quakes occurring on the surface of the markets don’t necessarily signal layoffs and economic disaster, but a gradual erosion of confidence absolutely could. Keep in mind that Larry Kudlow was a financial analyst and TV talking head that no one respected back in 2007 when he said there was no way in hell a recession was on the horizon. Today, Kudlow is the Trump administration’s top economic advisor and just hours ago he told reporters: “Recession is so far in the distance, I can’t see it. Keep the faith. It’s a very strong economy.” More comforting words have never been uttered.
And Kudlow is one of the people resonsible for the current tariff policies and obdurate pov re China/trade
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