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The bigger question is what is there to be excited about in the future?
The biggest and most robust trend is continuation and acceleration of a global trend, of hundreds of millions of people being lifted out of poverty, into a consumer middle-class. They will drink Coke, eat meat, eventually buy cars, and eventually will need dental work, diabetes-medicine and expensive end-of-life care. Instead of dying on straw mattresses in villages, they'll be dying on $30K hospital beds in ICUs. And their relatives will pay $10/day to park in the hospital parking lot to visit them. How is that not a burgeoning profit-opportunity?
In the shorter term, there appears at least to me to still be insufficient recovery in the Developed World, from the Great Recession. Consumption is still below the level where it should be. Productive capacity remains diminished. Never mind additional long-term growth... there's ample opportunity in just the remaining recovery.
In the even shorter term, I'm optimistic that the debacle with the Chinese trade/tariffs will resolve itself. America's business-interests have for too long been too supine and too accommodative of the current political climate. It's time that these interests assert themselves, and when they do, policies should become more business-friendly... meaning, good cause for a rising stock market.
What worries me is self-feeding, self-fertilizing pessimism. If enough people just decide one day that the market is "overvalued", and act on their decision, then indeed, the market will have come to have been overvalued.
Sure, it's comforting to realize that in 30 years our money will have quadrupled or whatever. But if in a matter of weeks it can fall by 20%, how much comfort is this long-term reward?
Sorry, in 30 years many of us, Retirement Forum members, will be gone... No comfort what so ever...
Big money knew what they were doing. Scare the retail investor off with the December rundown and use the media outlets to make sure they were scared (and stayed put) on the sidelines. After a substantial run up (more to go still), average retail investor will want back in, and smart money will be selling to the retail crowd before the next drop going leading up to the election.
Amazing how many people I knew who were getting rushing to CDs at the end of December lol.
well all those who fled and exhibited bad investor behavior did so on their own . they have no one to blame . those who did the right thing had it become a non event in 7 weeks...
downturns go with investing . if they can't handle it they either need someone managing their money other then themselves or they don't belong in volatile investments .
Smart money was banking on The Wall to be built as market reached record high then nosedive when Dems stonewall The Wall. President then began talk of having The Wall and smart money came back to support The Wall. Today National Emergency for The Wall got signed.
Smart money was banking on The Wall to be built as market reached record high then nosedive when Dems stonewall The Wall. President then began talk of having The Wall and smart money came back to support The Wall. Today National Emergency for The Wall got signed.
No one on Wall Street gives a s*** about the wall nor is it doing anything to drive the market.
Smart money was banking on The Wall to be built as market reached record high then nosedive when Dems stonewall The Wall. President then began talk of having The Wall and smart money came back to support The Wall. Today National Emergency for The Wall got signed.
That's funny. But it was surprising that the markets rallied during the longest government shutdown ever.
They called a meeting of Treasury, Federal Reserve, and the key banks on December 24th to start bidding up the market.
The last slide was initiated on the same day Canada arrested Meng. There was 50/200 crossover the same day and investment community notes on possible forced deleveraging imminent by CTA's due to key technical levels being taken out.
I didn't feel like looking up the links since these are from recall, having lived through that period.
That's funny. But it was surprising that the markets rallied during the longest government shutdown ever.
Who would have thought that would happen?
It's important that the government stays open at this time. February is generally the richest month for the poor as they get all of their income taxes back to them. If the government's closed, that's not going to happen.
However, the market sink was based on a new Fed chief that seemed to be in love with his crystal ball with enough confidence to keep raising rates right into an inverse curve while draining money from the world coupled with plunging commodity prices and the very real threat of slowing demands from trade wars.
Everyone on Wall Street believes the Fed can put the country into recession....because they can. The rest is just noise....meaningful only in determining if the Fed buys it or not.
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No comfort what so ever...
