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Pretty sure I’ve read here in this forum, and many others, over and over again....trying to time the market is a bad idea.
No matter what the experts say (and they too say never try to time the market), there remain a significant number of "IKnowBetter"s who are bound and determined to shoot themselves in the foot because they know of or heard about some guy who made a lot of $$$$ timing the market and they think they can do it too. Or someone does it once and it works out and they think they can trust themselves to be right most of the time.
And I'll let you in on a little secret: people on the Interwebs lie. Not all, but some do, even in this corner of the Internet.
No matter what the experts say (and they too say never try to time the market), there remain a significant number of "IKnowBetter"s who are bound and determined to shoot themselves in the foot because they know of or heard about some guy who made a lot of $$$$ timing the market and they think they can do it too. Or someone does it once and it works out and they think they can trust themselves to be right most of the time.
And I'll let you in on a little secret: people on the Interwebs lie. Not all, but some do, even in this corner of the Internet.
Tried it...failed...never again. If you get nervous, lower equity holdings a few percent..but bailing on the market? Like you said..when do you get back in? With this rip up from December..we KNOW there are people that were on here bragging about bailing..you can bet they never got back in in time.
I haven't been a "plunger" as far as market timing but I have been in and out on what I considered fairly obvious signals over the years and haven't suffered. And I slept much better in the interim. Believing it always comes back is, at best, just rolling the dice like a market timer albeit dice with historically better odds. But that's all it is. Playing the odds. Or worse, it's something taken on faith.
Going from equity positions to mattress?
Shifting from equities to bonds or vice versa?
Buying sectors that have begun selling off and selling sectors that have been rallying?
Limit Orders on specific issues?
I'd be the first to agree with animal spirits being a primary mover of Wall Street, but there's strings attached. Efficient market thesis may apply the most heavily traded and watched stocks, but maybe not so much in stocks not in the spotlight.
Location: Was Midvalley Oregon; Now Eastside Seattle area
13,073 posts, read 7,515,583 times
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Retired. Trade in individual stocks. Fun money. The idea is to buy value (up or down) and to attempt to time the market.
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