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The DOW is again approaching all time highs. Only twice since the great depression has the market flirted with bear market territory only to return to new highs again within a 6 month period (1980 & 1998). This was a very quick recovery indeed.
If the market can't break through the 26,616 or 26,951 levels, it will be forming a distinctive triple-top. The other option is we blow through the 27,000 level and are off to the races (similar to 1998).
The DOW is again approaching all time highs. Only twice since the great depression has the market flirted with bear market territory only to return to new highs again within a 6 month period (1980 & 1998). This was a very quick recovery indeed.
Yes, we are. This is a great time to re-examine your risk tolerance (especially if you are going to need the $ in 3-5 years). We are in the midst of the longest bull market in stock market history. Odds are very good that we are nearing the end of its run. It may have 10% more to run; no one knows. A 10% gain followed by a 40% loss would need 51.5% just to get back to even. The next bear market will come unexpectedly and be much deeper and longer than the December correction. My guess is there will be a great buying opportunity in the next few years. 'Off to the races' would require much higher corporate earnings, and this is unlikely this late in the economic cycle.
Historically low unemployment and an arguably booming economy, yet the market can't handle a 0.25% Fed rate hike? Nearing the tail end of an extended bull market, yet the government is on track this year for a $1 trillion deficit? If this is what the market looks like during the "good times" what happens when things turn south? It's just a little disconcerting that we are nearing the same deficits that we had when we were in the middle of the financial crisis, and to think it's only going to get worse when the next inevitable crisis hits.
Historically low unemployment and an arguably booming economy, yet the market can't handle a 0.25% Fed rate hike? Nearing the tail end of an extended bull market, yet the government is on track this year for a $1 trillion deficit? If this is what the market looks like during the "good times" what happens when things turn south? It's just a little disconcerting that we are nearing the same deficits that we had when we were in the middle of the financial crisis, and to think it's only going to get worse when the next inevitable crisis hits.
Yeah the economy is being propped up with government spending.
That being said the party that axes the budget is the one that sends us into recession. They'd rather have inflation than a recession. There will be calls for $30 min wage around the corner. Not joking!
Historically low unemployment and an arguably booming economy, yet the market can't handle a 0.25% Fed rate hike? Nearing the tail end of an extended bull market, yet the government is on track this year for a $1 trillion deficit? If this is what the market looks like during the "good times" what happens when things turn south? It's just a little disconcerting that we are nearing the same deficits that we had when we were in the middle of the financial crisis, and to think it's only going to get worse when the next inevitable crisis hits.
I agree with your assessment. Rates were artificially kept low for too long. At some point, the soaring deficit will have to be addressed. My belief is that the FED is being politically manipulated, and this is likely to not turn out well.
Don't bull markets die of euphoria? Well, that is not the market sentiment now... everyone I talk to is thinking it's crashing tomorrow, especially after what happened in December.... I don't find that euphoric.
If we had true Euphoria the S&P500 would've been something like 3200+. If we look at where we are we have essentially gone nowhere since January 2018, that's 15 months of zero increase in the S&P500.
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