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I agree with your last statements. I think China is waiting this out, as they believe trump is likely to not be re-elected..
Yeah, Trump may have painted himself in a corner on this one. All China has to do is sit tight and see what happens in Nov 2020 as time is on their side. Trump can't afford to follow that game plan as he needs to get it resolved somehow. 17 more months of no movement will not play well at election time. But he has to figure out how to make it happen without looking weak to his base. May be a wild ride coming up.
China was purposely excluded from the TPP agreement. The objective was to encourage trade between all the OTHER countries, in order to diminish China's influence.
China only looked at joining TPP after the US decided to abandon it. China runs a trade deficit with a number of TPP countries, such as Canada, Australia, and Japan. They're mostly the richest economies, but not the largest future markets in terms of population.
China knows that no US President will serve longer than 8 years so eventually there will be a new one in place and China in the meantime keeps their leaders much longer and they rule with an iron fist and focus on the very very long term. While the US concentrates on 2 to 4 year timeframes, China is looking out 20 yrs, 50 yrs and even longer.
We live in a global economy, like it or not. The US cannot produce everything needed, and the US cannot compete on price on many items. I guess if people are willing to pay 3x+ the price for their goods then maybe more manufacturing can come back to the US, but it's doubtful people would be willing to pay those kinds of prices.
The US cannot do without China, as some fantasize. I realize others do understand that and see the bigger picture of a more fair trade balance and protection of IP. It's a delicate dance, but enacting these tariffs has only served to hurt the US more than it's managed to hurt China.
Are Americans willing to allow their markets/stock markets to crash in this quest? How much self-inflicted pain are you prepared to take?
"I wish I could quit you" --> investors who know CNBC is clickbait & still slavishly follow them and repost their clickbait articles as if those have any legitimacy.
We need to know which trade war we're talking about; Chinese, EU, Canadian or Mexican? So much trade war news today that I forgot about Mueller for a second. Wait. Nah. Couldn't be.
Yeah, I don't put a lot of faith into CNBC, the same financial network that completely missed the biggest economic story of the decade in the 08' meltdown.
That said, I just a memo from my FA firm that, to paraphrase, it's one thing to get into a tariff dispute when the GDP is up 3+%, quite another when that falls off which if you use the Purchasing Managers Index as a leading indicator just hit a 3 year low for the US.
How about when Larry Kudlow constantly pushed 'King Coal' on CNBC and campaigned that the U.S. was the 'Saudi Arabia of coal' entirely missing Obama's regulations which killed the industry and beheaded King Coal!
US tariffs is for reasons other than trade. They wouldn't have the weapon or the flexibility to use the weapon as they wish if they stayed in the TPP. China is about more than trade. Mexico is about immigration.
You got that right. Voters wanted disruption and they got it in spades. Nothing to do now but sit back, make sure that the seat belt is tight, and hope that the driver doesn't crash the car that we are all riding in.
The S&P 500 is currently 6.5% below the record high it reached on April 30.
Still not a market correction, but getting there.
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