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markets hate the uncertainty of a long weekend and this virus's effects growing , both financially hurting companies and people wise.
I read that China car sales were down 92% last month.
In any case, something is rotten in China and companies, especially certain US companies, should take this opportunity to permanently diversify their supply chains, shortening them to the extent feasible.
Might not just be the virus, but completely agreed, something is amiss in China. Something rotten happened in Nevada as well. That's 3 wins for the socialists. Each one I've pulled a bit more to the side to cash.
Well, the odds are growing that we're headed for a pandemic.
1. Cases erupt in Iran, a country incapable of controlling Covid-19
2. Cases documented where test for infection is not registering positive but does so some days later, after others infected.
3. Cases documented of asymptomatic transmission
4. Cases documented where some deaths are due to hyper-immune system reaction (like SARS)
5. Cases soaring in South Korea among cult church group
6. China trying to get back to work, risking renewed spread of COVID-19
7. Trump furious over return of US citizens infected with COVID-19, CDC was also against their return to US
8. Cases erupt in Italy. Italy imposes quarantine measures.
9. China shuts down university.
10. WHO team entering Wuhan (finally) and will likely issue news this week that the market won't like.
Maybe warm weather can stop it, like SARS, but that's an unknown until at least mid-April. In the meantime, markets are acting irrationally by ignoring the threat of potential economic damage. Is it time to buy another batch of PUTS on LVS?
Last edited by mitchmiller9; 02-22-2020 at 08:21 PM..
Now I'm wondering if there will be a market reaction of any substance to Super Tuesday.
Could be muted, but that was my original fish or cut bait date. Trump just had the first net positive poll of his Presidency, that is, a poll showed 49% approved of what he was doing vs 48% disapproving. It's his highest yet.
Personally, I was hoping for a Klobuchar or Biden decisive move by Super Tuesday. Both would represent electable candidates that may possibly even improve upon performance (as Trump is a bit chaotic) with a gridlocked house.
The worst case scenario is a Sanders Presidency, especially if the Dems gain control of both houses of Congress. In that case, your best alternative is to put some value in actual gold....but given the pricing as of late, it appears that trade is already crowded, possibly from Chinese investment from this virus.
With gold already highly priced, Euro bonds still in negative territory, Treasuries at record lows....the safe havens are already looking expensive. An election disaster here would have a lot of capital...easily the most in the world....all looking to hide and flee to safety.
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